During the twentieth century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early industrialized regions in North America, Europe and Oceania¹. At the turn of the twenty-first century, IBD incidence increased in newly industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America, while the prevalence in early industrialized regions continued to grow steadily^2,3,4. Changes in the incidence and prevalence denote the evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: stage 1 (emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (acceleration in incidence), marked by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (compounding prevalence), where the incidence decelerates, plateaus or declines while the prevalence steadily increases. A fourth stage (prevalence equilibrium) has been proposed in which the prevalence slope plateaus due to demographic shifts in an ageing IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have remained theoretical, lacking specific numerical indicators to define transition points. Here, using real-world data from 522 population-based studies encompassing 82 global regions and spanning more than a century (1920–2024), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model stage 4 progression. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages enables healthcare systems to better anticipate the future worldwide burden of IBD.

Management of biliary complications after orthotopic liver transplantation: The role of endoscopy

Background and aims Classical features of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) may be altered during the abrupt onset of the disease. Corticosteroid therapy can be life-saving, but its use in the fulminant presentation of AIH (F-AIH) remains controversial. We aimed to assess the clinical features of patients with F-AIH and to describe the role of corticosteroids in this population. Patients and methods We retrospectively analyzed 154 adult patients with fulminant hepatic failure who were admitted to six liver transplantation (LT) programs. The AIH simplified criteria were used to identify patients with F-AIH. Results We identified 40 (26%) patients with F-AIH. Compared with other etiologies, patients with F-AIH presented a longer interval from jaundice to encephalopathy (26 vs. 16 days, P=0.02) and a lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score on admission (29 vs. 33, P=0.002). Overall, 25 (62%) patients with F-AIH underwent LT, eight (20%) patients survived, and seven (18%) died without LT. Seventeen patients received corticosteroids therapy, of whom seven (41%) survived without LT. Among the treated patients, higher MELD score and encephalopathy grade of 3 or more were associated significantly with corticosteroid failure. Conclusion Patients with F-AIH have a more indolent presentation compared with the non-F-AIH population. Altogether, only eight (20%) patients presenting with F-AIH survived without LT. A subset of patients with F-AIH and an initial MELD score less than 27 and low-grade hepatic encephalopathy might benefit from administration of corticosteroids.

The increasing mortality rates of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) registered during the last decades are, at least in part, a result of the lack of accurate non-invasive biomarkers for early disease diagnosis, making the identification of patients who might benefit from potentially curative approaches (i.e., surgery) extremely challenging. The obscure CCA pathogenesis and associated etiological factors, as well as the lack of symptoms in patients with early tumor stages, highly compromises CCA identification and to predict tumor development in at-risk populations. Currently, CCA diagnosis is accomplished by the combination of clinical/biochemical features, radiological imaging and non-specific serum tumor biomarkers, although a tumor biopsy is still needed to confirm disease diagnosis. Furthermore, prognostic and predictive biomarkers are still lacking and urgently needed. During the recent years, high-throughput omics-based approaches have identified novel circulating biomarkers (diagnostic and prognostic) that might be included in large, international validation studies in the near future. In this review, we summarize and discuss the most recent advances in the field of biomarker discovery in CCA, providing new insights and future research directions.