The transition to renewable and sustainable energy sources is critical to solving the environmental and socioeconomic problems associated with the use of fossil fuels. This study uses an interdisciplinary approach to analyze the challenges and prospects of a sustainable energy transition in contexts with the recent discovery and exploitation of fossil resources. We study the case of Senegal from 2000 to 2027 and the role of recent discoveries of natural gas in its energy transition. In 2000, Senegal’s energy mix consisted of about 97% fossil energy and only 3% renewable energy. Since then, the country has developed renewable energy sources, including solar, hydro, and wind power, which currently account for about 30% of the total energy mix. At the same time, Senegal’s population and electricity production have grown significantly, leading to a fivefold increase in per capita energy consumption over the past two decades. Projections based on a long short-term memory model that predicts future electricity demand and energy balance suggest a structural shift in the energy mix, with natural gas, oil, and renewables at 47%, 32%, and 21%, respectively, by 2027. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive analysis that highlights the benefits of strategically using natural gas as a transition energy source in contexts with increased electricity demand and continued development of renewable energy sources.

The objective of this work is to predict daily PM2.5 air quality in Dakar, Senegal using data from an automated measurement station integrated into a server using a data assimilation model. Initially, a 3-year data set was used to identify and validate an appropriate ARIMA data assimilation model. The data was split into an 80% training set and a 20% test set. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used to check the normality of the data series. Subsequently, we used the AutoArima method to determine the optimal model to represent the time series. Preliminary results show that a model with order (2,1,1) accurately represents the series. Additional analysis using model fit tests showed that the (3, 0, 1) model was most effective in representing and predicting the data. The statistical validation performance of this model demonstrates its capability to forecast PM2.5 concentrations for up to 72 hours (3 days), achieving correlation coefficients exceeding 80%. However, after three days, the predictions returned to background levels. In the final stage of the study, data from automatic stations were integrated into a server hosting the assimilation model to improve daily PM2.5 forecasts for Dakar. An interactive platform was developed to visualize measurements and forecasts over two days. The results show that by integrating the data with the assimilation model, predictions are significantly improved.

This study presents the first comprehensive techno-economic assessment of wind-based green hydrogen production across Senegal, a country highly dependent on fossil fuel imports. Using a novel integrated approach combining 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data (1993–2023), turbine performance modeling and electrolyzer comparison, it fills an important gap for renewable hydrogen development in West Africa. Wind resources were analyzed at multiple altitudes, revealing strong potential in both coastal and northeastern regions, particularly during the dry season, with higher wind speeds at higher turbine heights. Four turbines (Vestas_150, Goldwind_155, Vestas_126 and Nordex_N100) and two electrolyzer types (alkaline and PEM) were evaluated. The alkaline system performed best. Vestas_150 and Goldwind_155 achieved the highest hydrogen yields of 241 and 183 tons/year and CO₂ reductions of 2951 and 2241 tons/year, generating carbon credits of 0.118 M$ and 0.089 M$, respectively. Their levelized cost of electricity remained low (0.042 and 0.039 $/kWh), while smaller turbines showed higher costs. Vestas_150 also had the shortest payback period of 2.16 years, making it the most competitive option. Sensitivity analyses showed that longer system lifespans and high-performance turbines significantly reduce the levelized cost of hydrogen. Priority investment zones include Saint-Louis, Matam, Louga and Tambacounda, with levelized cost of hydrogen values as low as 3.4 $/kg.

The transition to renewable and sustainable energy sources is critical to solving the environmental and socioeconomic problems associated with the use of fossil fuel. This study uses an interdisciplinary approach to analyze the evolution, challenges and prospects of a sustainable energy transition in the context of recent discovery and exploitation of fossil resources. We study the case of Senegal from 2000 to 2027 and the role of natural gas in its energy transition. In 2000, Senegal's energy mix consisted of about 97% for fossil energy and only 3% for renewable energy. Nowadays, although fossil fuels are still dominant, but they account for about 70% of total electricity production. The country has indeed undertaken tremendous efforts to develop renewable energy sources including, solar, hydro and wind power, which currently account for about 30% of the total energy mix. Socio-economic indicators show that over the past two decades, Senegal's population and electricity production have grown significantly, leading to an increased energy demand/need. This growth has resulted in a five-fold increase in per capita energy consumption over the same period. Combining the strategic use of natural gas as a transition energy source with the continued development of renewable energy sources could make Senegal as a model for West Africa’s energy transition. The projections for 2027 suggest a structural shift in the energy mix, with natural gas, oil, and renewables at 47%, 32%, and 21%, respectively.