Dietary habits influence many risk factors for cardiometabolic health, including heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes, which collectively pose substantial health and economic burdens.¹ In both global^2,3 and national⁴ modeling studies, the associations of suboptimal diet with overall health have been estimated. Understanding the relations of individual dietary components with cardiometabolic disease at the population level is essential to identify priorities, guide public health planning, and inform strategies to alter these dietary habits and improve health. In addition, the differences in these estimated health burdens by underlying personal characteristics, such as age, sex, race/ethnicity, and education, are relevant to consider more targeted approaches to reducing disparities.

Suboptimal diet is among the leading causes of poor health, particularly obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and diet-related cancers.^1,2 In the United States, dietary factors are estimated to account for more than 650 000 deaths per year and 14% of all disability-adjusted life-years lost.¹ Understanding trends in dietary habits is crucial to inform priorities and policies to improve diets and reduce diet-related illness. In addition, identifying how such trends vary according to specific subgroups is essential to evaluate prevalent, worsening, or potentially improving disparities and inform corresponding interventions.

Background—: Data are limited on the presence, distribution, and extent of subclinical atherosclerosis in middle-aged populations. Methods and Results—: The PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) study prospectively enrolled 4184 asymptomatic participants 40 to 54 years of age (mean age, 45.8 years; 63% male) to evaluate the systemic extent of atherosclerosis in the carotid, abdominal aortic, and iliofemoral territories by 2-/3-dimensional ultrasound and coronary artery calcification by computed tomography. The extent of subclinical atherosclerosis, defined as presence of plaque or coronary artery calcification ≥1, was classified as focal (1 site affected), intermediate (2–3 sites), or generalized (4–6 sites) after exploration of each vascular site (right/left carotids, aorta, right/left iliofemorals, and coronary arteries). Subclinical atherosclerosis was present in 63% of participants (71% of men, 48% of women). Intermediate and generalized atherosclerosis was identified in 41%. Plaques were most common in the iliofemorals (44%), followed by the carotids (31%) and aorta (25%), whereas coronary artery calcification was present in 18%. Among participants with low Framingham Heart Study (FHS) 10-year risk, subclinical disease was detected in 58%, with intermediate or generalized disease in 36%. When longer-term risk was assessed (30-year FHS), 83% of participants at high risk had atherosclerosis, with 66% classified as intermediate or generalized. Conclusions—: Subclinical atherosclerosis was highly prevalent in this middle-aged cohort, with nearly half of the participants classified as having intermediate or generalized disease. Most participants at high FHS risk had subclinical disease; however, extensive atherosclerosis was also present in a substantial number of low-risk individuals, suggesting added value of imaging for diagnosis and prevention. Clinical Trial Registration—: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01410318.

Dietary habits are major contributors to coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, comprehensive evaluation of etiologic effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic outcomes, their quantitative effects, and corresponding optimal intakes are not well-established. To systematically review the evidence for effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases, including comprehensively assess evidence for causality; estimate magnitudes of etiologic effects; evaluate heterogeneity and potential for bias in these etiologic effects; and determine optimal population intake levels. We utilized Bradford-Hill criteria to assess probable or convincing evidence for causal effects of multiple diet-cardiometabolic disease relationships. Etiologic effects were quantified from published or de novo meta-analyses of prospective studies or randomized clinical trials, incorporating standardized units, dose-response estimates, and heterogeneity by age and other characteristics. Potential for bias was assessed in validity analyses. Optimal intakes were determined by levels associated with lowest disease risk. We identified 10 foods and 7 nutrients with evidence for causal cardiometabolic effects, including protective effects of fruits, vegetables, beans/legumes, nuts/seeds, whole grains, fish, yogurt, fiber, seafood omega-3s, polyunsaturated fats, and potassium; and harms of unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, glycemic load, trans-fats, and sodium. Proportional etiologic effects declined with age, but did not generally vary by sex. Established optimal population intakes were generally consistent with observed national intakes and major dietary guidelines. In validity analyses, the identified effects of individual dietary components were similar to quantified effects of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors and hard endpoints. These novel findings provide a comprehensive summary of causal evidence, quantitative etiologic effects, heterogeneity, and optimal intakes of major dietary factors for cardiometabolic diseases, informing disease impact estimation and policy planning and priorities.

While food pricing is a promising strategy to improve diet, the prospective impact of food pricing on diet has not been systematically quantified. To quantify the prospective effect of changes in food prices on dietary consumption. We systematically searched online databases for interventional or prospective observational studies of price change and diet; we also searched for studies evaluating adiposity as a secondary outcome. Studies were excluded if price data were collected before 1990. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate. Findings were pooled using DerSimonian-Laird's random effects model. Pre-specified sources of heterogeneity were analyzed using meta-regression; and potential for publication bias, by funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests. From 3,163 identified abstracts, 23 interventional studies and 7 prospective cohorts with 37 intervention arms met inclusion criteria. In pooled analyses, a 10% decrease in price (i.e., subsidy) increased consumption of healthful foods by 12% (95%CI = 10–15%; N = 22 studies/intervention arms) whereas a 10% increase price (i.e. tax) decreased consumption of unhealthful foods by 6% (95%CI = 4–8%; N = 15). By food group, subsidies increased intake of fruits and vegetables by 14% (95%CI = 11–17%; N = 9); and other healthful foods, by 16% (95%CI = 10–23%; N = 10); without significant effects on more healthful beverages (-3%; 95%CI = -16-11%; N = 3). Each 10% price increase reduced sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 7% (95%CI = 3–10%; N = 5); fast foods, by 3% (95%CI = 1–5%; N = 3); and other unhealthful foods, by 9% (95%CI = 6–12%; N = 3). Changes in price of fruits and vegetables reduced body mass index (-0.04 kg/m² per 10% price decrease, 95%CI = -0.08–0 kg/m²; N = 4); price changes for sugar-sweetened beverages or fast foods did not significantly alter body mass index, based on 4 studies. Meta-regression identified direction of price change (tax vs. subsidy), number of intervention components, intervention duration, and study quality score as significant sources of heterogeneity (P-heterogeneity<0.05 each). Evidence for publication bias was not observed. These prospective results, largely from interventional studies, support efficacy of subsidies to increase consumption of healthful foods; and taxation to reduce intake of unhealthful beverages and foods. Use of subsidies and combined multicomponent interventions appear most effective.