Turning the corner: The Antarctic ozone hole is finally showing signs of disappearing, nearly 30 years after the Montreal Protocol came into effect. The Montreal Protocol, an international treaty that phased out the production of many of the human-made compounds responsible for stratospheric ozone destruction, is widely considered to be the most important and successful international environmental agreement. For years, it has slowed the rate of stratospheric ozone depletion, and now there are signs that the ozone abundance over Antarctica has begun to increase. Solomon et al. present observational data and model results to illustrate the trends and diagnose their causes. Science , this issue p. 269

Using volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions in an aerosol‐climate model, we derive a time series of global‐mean volcanic effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1979 to 2015. For 2005–2015, we calculate a global multiannual mean volcanic ERF of −0.08 W/m² relative to the volcanically quiescent 1999–2002 period, due to a high frequency of small‐to‐moderate‐magnitude explosive eruptions after 2004. For eruptions of large magnitude such as 1991 Mt. Pinatubo, our model‐simulated volcanic ERF, which accounts for rapid adjustments including aerosol perturbations of clouds, is less negative than that reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) that only accounted for stratospheric temperature adjustments. We find that, when rapid adjustments are considered, the relation between volcanic forcing and volcanic stratospheric optical depth (SAOD) is 13–21% weaker than reported in IPCC AR5 for large‐magnitude eruptions. Further, our analysis of the recurrence frequency of eruptions reveals that sulfur‐rich small‐to‐moderate‐magnitude eruptions with column heights ≥10 km occur frequently, with periods of volcanic quiescence being statistically rare. Small‐to‐moderate‐magnitude eruptions should therefore be included in climate model simulations, given the >50% chance of one or two eruptions to occur in any given year. Not all of these eruptions affect the stratospheric aerosol budget, but those that do increase the nonvolcanic background SAOD by ~0.004 on average, contributing ~50% to the total SAOD in the absence of large‐magnitude eruptions. This equates to a volcanic ERF of about −0.10 W/m², which is about two thirds of the ERF from ozone changes induced by ozone‐depleting substances.

'Tis the seasonal: Anthropogenic climate change has become clearly observable through many metrics. These include an increase in global annual temperatures, growing heat content of the oceans, and sea level rise owing to the melting of the polar ice sheets and glaciers. Now, Santer et al. report that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature can also be measured (see the Perspective by Randel). They use satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models to show the extent of the effects and discuss how these changes have been caused. Science , this issue p. eaas8806 ; see also p. 227

Significance: Large wildfires have been observed to inject smoke into the stratosphere, raising questions about their potential to affect the stratospheric ozone layer that protects life on Earth from biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation. Multiple observations of aerosol and NO₂concentrations from three independent satellite instruments are used here together with model calculations to identify decreases in stratospheric NO₂concentrations following major Australian 2019 through 2020 wildfires. The data confirm that important chemistry did occur on the smoke particle surfaces. The observed behavior in NO₂with increasing particle concentrations is a marker for surface chemistry that contributes to midlatitude ozone depletion. The results indicate that increasing wildfire activity in a warming world may slow the recovery of the ozone layer.