Introduction: Early risk assessment is the mainstay of management of patients with sepsis. APACHE II is the gold standard prognostic stratification system. A prediction rule that aimed to improve prognostication by APACHE II with the application of serum suPAR (soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) is developed. Methods: A prospective study cohort enrolled 1914 patients with sepsis including 62.2% with sepsis and 37.8% with severe sepsis/septic shock. Serum suPAR was measured in samples drawn after diagnosis by an enzyme-immunoabsorbent assay; in 367 patients sequential measurements were performed. After ROC analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis a prediction rule for risk was developed. The rule was validated in a double-blind fashion by an independent confirmation cohort of 196 sepsis patients, predominantly severe sepsis/septic shock patients, from Sweden. Results: Serum suPAR remained stable within survivors and non-survivors for 10 days. Regression analysis showed that APACHE II ≥17 and suPAR ≥12 ng/ml were independently associated with unfavorable outcome. Four strata of risk were identified: i) APACHE II <17 and suPAR <12 ng/ml with mortality 5.5%; ii) APACHE II < 17 and suPAR ≥12 ng/ml with mortality 17.4%; iii) APACHE II ≥ 17 and suPAR <12 ng/ml with mortality 37.4%; and iv) APACHE II ≥17 and suPAR ≥12 ng/ml with mortality 51.7%. This prediction rule was confirmed by the Swedish cohort. Conclusions: A novel prediction rule with four levels of risk in sepsis based on APACHE II score and serum suPAR is proposed. Prognostication by this rule is confirmed by an independent cohort.

The trajectory from moderate and severe COVID-19 into acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) necessitating mechanical ventilation (MV) is a field of active research. We determined serum levels within 24 h of presentation of 20 different sets of mediators (calprotectin, pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, interferons) of patients with COVID-19 at different stages of severity (asymptomatic, moderate, severe and ARDS/MV). The primary endpoint was to define associations with critical illness, and the secondary endpoint was to identify the pathways associated with mortality. Results were validated in serial measurements of mediators among participants of the SAVE-MORE trial. Levels of the proinflammatory interleukin (IL)-8, IL-18, matrix metalloproteinase-9, platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-B and calprotectin (S100A8/A9) were significantly higher in patients with ARDS and MV. Levels of the anti-inflammatory IL-1ra and IL-33r were also increased; IL-38 was increased only in asymptomatic patients but significantly decreased in the more severe cases. Multivariate ordinal regression showed that pathways of IL-6, IL-33 and calprotectin were associated with significant probability for worse outcome. Calprotectin was serially increased from baseline among patients who progressed to ARDS and MV. Further research is needed to decipher the significance of these findings compared to other acute-phase reactants, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) or ferritin, for the prognosis and development of effective treatments.

Recent research on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV suggests that integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) cause faster weight gain compared to other drug classes. Here, we investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence after treatment initiation and corresponding differences between drug classes. Data were derived from a large collaborative cohort in Greece. Included individuals were adults who started ART, in or after 2010, while previously ART naïve and achieved virologic response within the first year of ART. Data were analysed using mixed fractional polynomial models. INSTI regimens led to the more pronounced BMI increases, followed by boosted PI and NNRTI based regimens. Individuals with normal initial BMI are expected to gain 6 kg with an INSTI regimen compared to 4 kg with a boosted PI and less than 3 kg with a NNRTI regimen after four years of treatment. Prevalence of obesity was 5.7% at ART initiation and 12.2%, 14.2% and 18.1% after four years of treatment with NNRTIs, PIs, and INSTIs, respectively. Dolutegravir or Raltegravir were associated with marginally faster BMI increase compared to Elvitegravir. INSTIs are associated with faster weight gain. INSTIs’ increased risk of treatment emergent obesity and, possibly, weight-related co-morbidities should be judged against their improved efficacy and tolerability but increased clinical attention is required.

Our aim was to investigate the dispersal patterns and parameters associated with local molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) of subtypes A1 and B in Greece (predominant HIV-1 subtypes). The analysis focused on 1751 (28.4%) and 2575 (41.8%) sequences of subtype A1 and B, respectively. Identification of MTCs was based on phylogenetic analysis. The analyses identified 38 MTCs including 2–1518 subtype A1 sequences and 168 MTCs in the range of 2–218 subtype B sequences. The proportion of sequences within MTCs was 93.8% (1642/1751) and 77.0% (1982/2575) for subtype A1 and B, respectively. Transmissions within MTCs for subtype A1 were associated with risk group (Men having Sex with Men vs. heterosexuals, OR = 5.34, p < 0.001) and Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 6.05, p < 0.001) and for subtype B, they were associated with Greek origin (Greek vs. non-Greek origin, OR = 1.57, p = 0.019), younger age (OR = 0.96, p < 0.001), and more recent sampling (time period: 2011–2015 vs. 1999–2005, OR = 3.83, p < 0.001). Our findings about the patterns of across and within country dispersal as well as the parameters associated with transmission within MTCs provide a framework for the application of the study of molecular clusters for HIV prevention.

TREM-1 (triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells), a receptor expressed on neutrophils and monocytes, is upregulated in sepsis and seems to tune the inflammatory response. We explored the expression of TREM-1 at the gene level and on cell membranes of monocytes and association with clinical outcome. Peripheral venous blood was sampled from 75 septic patients (39 patients with sepsis, 25 with severe sepsis and 11 with septic shock) on sepsis days 1, 3 and 7. TREM-1 on monocytes was measured by flow cytometry; gene expression of TREM-1 in circulating mononuclear cells was assessed by real-time PCR. sTREM-1 was measured in serum by an enzyme immunoassay. Although surface TREM-1, sTREM-1 and TREM-1 gene expression did not differ between sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock on day 1, survivors had greater expression of surface TREM-1 on days 3 and 7 compared to non-survivors. sTREM-1 on non-survivors decreased on day 3 compared to baseline. Patients with increase of monocyte gene expression of TREM-1 from day 1 to day 3 had prolonged survival compared to patients with decrease of gene expression of TREM-1 from day 1 to day 3 (p: 0.031). Early decrease of gene expression of TREM-1 in monocytes is associated with poor outcome. A reciprocal decrease of the pro-inflammatory surface receptor TREM-1 linked with sepsis-induced immunosuppression may be part of the explanation.

OBJECTIVES: It is suggested that sepsis may be classified into four clinical phenotypes, using an algorithm employing 29 admission parameters. We applied a simplified phenotyping algorithm among patients with bacterial sepsis and severe COVID-19 and assessed characteristics and outcomes of the derived phenotypes. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data from prospective clinical studies. SETTING: Greek ICUs and Internal Medicine departments. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: We analyzed 1498 patients, 620 with bacterial sepsis and 878 with severe COVID-19. We implemented a six-parameter algorithm (creatinine, lactate, aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, C-reactive protein, and international normalized ratio) to classify patients with bacterial sepsis intro previously defined phenotypes. Patients with severe COVID-19, included in two open-label immunotherapy trials were subsequently classified. Heterogeneity of treatment effect of anakinra was assessed. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The algorithm validated the presence of the four phenotypes across the cohort of bacterial sepsis and the individual studies included in this cohort. Phenotype α represented younger patients with low risk of death, β was associated with high comorbidity burden, and δ with the highest mortality. Phenotype assignment was independently associated with outcome, even after adjustment for Charlson Comorbidity Index. Phenotype distribution and outcomes in severe COVID-19 followed a similar pattern. CONCLUSIONS: A simplified algorithm successfully identified previously derived phenotypes of bacterial sepsis, which were predictive of outcome. This classification may apply to patients with severe COVID-19 with prognostic implications.