The Mexican Caribbean is a high-risk coastal area. It faces numerous natural and anthropogenic hazards due to its unique ecosystem worldwide and significant economic pressure in the region. The area, which have a high population density in cities like Cancún, Playa del Carmen and Tulum, have been affected by accelerated changes altering its natural dynamics (Silva et al, 2019). These alterations have led to the instability and degradation of the coastal ecosystems (Silva et al, 2019), resulting in the reduction of protection services provided by coral reefs and coastal vegetation against hurricanes, a phenomenon widely demonstrated (Odériz et al, 2020). This study performed a spatial vulnerability analysis of the Mexican Caribbean coast by analyzing vulnerability indicators based on geomorphological (sediment and beach characteristics) and biological (foredune, seagrass, and coral reef cover) factors. Based on the spatial analysis, the areas of higher vulnerability in the region were identified. Once these vulnerable areas are identified, it is possible to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies to mitigate climate risk.

Coastal erosion is commonly assessed from shoreline-position change using methods such as the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). However, on microtidal sandy beaches with strong seasonal wave variability, shoreline retreat may reflect temporary sediment redistribution rather than permanent erosion. This study evaluates the morphodynamic behaviour of a ~280 km sandy coastline along the Mexican Caribbean (Isla Blanca–Punta Allen) between 2009 and 2024 using high-resolution RapidEye and PlanetScope satellite imagery. Beach-area changes were quantified for 160 sedimentary cells and analysed with the Mann–Kendall test to identify long-term morphological trends, while shoreline mobility was assessed separately using the DSAS End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR). The results indicate that the coastline is predominantly characterised by dynamic equilibrium and seasonal sediment redistribution: 64.4% of the cells remained stable, 15.0% exhibited redistributive behaviour, and only 12.5% showed persistent beach-area loss. In contrast, the DSAS analysis based on Total EPR showed shoreline retreat (EPR < 0) in 78.1% of the cells, whereas only 12.5% showed persistent beach-area loss, indicating that shoreline-position change alone may overestimate chronic erosion along this seasonally dynamic coast. Although DSAS rates were moderately to strongly correlated with beach-area trends (r = 0.59–0.64), the two approaches led to markedly different management interpretations. These findings demonstrate that multi-temporal beach-area analysis provides a valuable complement to shoreline-based methods, enabling a clearer distinction between seasonal variability and chronic erosion on highly dynamic microtidal coasts.