Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos

Dr. Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

13Years (2014-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
5 February 2020 in Journal of Applied Statistics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
JVJulio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Gauss Moutinho CordeiroGauss Moutinho Cordeiro
Gauss Moutinho Cordeiro
GCGauss Cordeiro
Gauss Cordeiro
ÉRÉdila Maria de Rezende
Édila Maria de Rezende
We define the odd log-logistic exponential Gaussian regression with two systematic components, which extends the heteroscedastic Gaussian regression and it is suitable for bimodal data quite common in the agriculture area. We estimate the parameters by the method of maximum likelihood. Some simulations indicate that the maximum-likelihood estimators are accurate. The model assumptions are checked through case deletion and quantile residuals. The usefulness of the new regression model is illustrated by means of three real data sets in different areas of agriculture, where the data present bimodality.

10 January 2019 in Journal of Probability and Statistics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JVJulio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
GCGauss M. Cordeiro
Gauss M. Cordeiro
GCGauss Cordeiro
Gauss Cordeiro
EAElton G. Araújo
Elton G. Araújo
We define a new four-parameter model called the odd log-logistic generalized inverse Gaussian distribution which extends the generalized inverse Gaussian and inverse Gaussian distributions. We obtain some structural properties of the new distribution. We construct an extended regression model based on this distribution with two systematic structures, which can provide more realistic fits to real data than other special regression models. We adopt the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters. In addition, various simulations are performed for different parameter settings and sample sizes to check the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimators. We provide a diagnostics analysis based on case-deletion and quantile residuals. Finally, the potentiality of the new regression model to predict price of urban property is illustrated by means of real data.

1 February 2019 in Journal of Applied Statistics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
FPFábio Prataviera
Fábio Prataviera
JVJulio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
GCG. M. Cordeiro
G. M. Cordeiro
EHElizabeth Mie Hashimoto
Elizabeth Mie Hashimoto
GCGauss Cordeiro
Gauss Cordeiro
We define the exponentiated power exponential distribution and propose a regression model with different systematic structures based on the new distribution. We show that the new regression model can be applied to dispersion data since it represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models some widely-known regression models. It then can be used more effectively in the analysis of real data. We use maximum likelihood estimation and derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. Some global-influence measurements are also investigated and simulation studies are performed to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates. We provide an application of the regression model with four systematic structures to nursing activities score data in the Unit of the Medical Clinic of University of São Paulo (USP) Hospital.

24 March 2025 in Agronomy
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JVJulio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
CACaio Arantes
Caio Arantes
ESEduardo Antonio Speranza
Eduardo Antonio Speranza
JAJoão Francisco Gonçalves Antunes
João Francisco Gonçalves Antunes
LBLuiz Antonio Falaguasta Barbosa
Luiz Antonio Falaguasta Barbosa
GCGeraldo Magela de Almeida Cançado
Geraldo Magela de Almeida Cançado
This research investigates how to estimate sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) yield at harvest by using an average satellite image time-series collected during the growth phase. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of various modeling approaches, including a heteroskedastic gamma regression model, Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Networks, in predicting sugarcane yield based on satellite-derived vegetation indices and environmental variables. Key covariates analyzed include sugarcane varieties, production cycles, accumulated precipitation during the growth phase, and the mean GNDVI vegetation index. The analysis was conducted in two locations over two consecutive growing seasons. The research emphasizes the integration of satellite data with advanced statistical and machine learning techniques to enhance yield prediction in agricultural systems, specifically focusing on sugarcane cultivation. The results indicate that the heteroskedastic gamma regression model outperformed the other methods in explaining yield variability, particularly in commercial sugarcane fields, achieving a Coefficient Determination (R2) of 0.89. These findings highlight the potential of these models to support informed decision-making and optimize agricultural practices, providing valuable insights for precision farming. Overall, the results of this study represent an initial step toward developing more robust models for predicting sugarcane yield. Future work will involve incorporating additional variables to better assess the impacts of environmental stresses, such as high temperatures and water deficits, on the crop’s agronomic performance.


1 March 2025 in Infectious Disease Modelling
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
JVJulio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
Julio Cezar Souza Vasconcelos
SLSilvio Aparecido Lopes
Silvio Aparecido Lopes
JAJuan Camilo Cifuentes Arenas
Juan Camilo Cifuentes Arenas
MSMaria Silva
Maria Silva
Greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), poses a severe threat to global citrus cultivation, affecting various citrus species and compromising fruit production. Primarily transmitted by psyllids during phloem feeding, the bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter induces detrimental symptoms, including leaf yellowing and reduced fruit quality. Given the limitations of conventional control strategies, the search for innovative approaches, such as resistant genotypes and early diagnostic methods, becomes essential for the sustainability of citrus cultivation. The development of predictive models, such as the one proposed in this study, is essential as it enables the estimation of the bacterium's concentration and the vulnerability of healthy plants to infection, which will be instrumental in determining the risk of HLB. This study proposes a prediction model utilizing environmental factors, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation, which play a decisive role in greening epidemiology, influencing the complex interaction among the pathogen, vector, and host plant. In the proposed modeling, it addresses non-linear relationships through cubic smoothing splines applications and tackles imbalanced categorical predictor variables, requiring the use of a random-effects regression model, incorporating a random intercept to account for variability across different groups and mitigate the risk of biased predictions. The model's ability to predict HLB incidence under varying climatic conditions provides a significant contribution to disease management, offering a strategic tool for early intervention and potentially reducing the spread of HLB. Using climatological and environmental data, the research aims to develop a predictive model, assessing the influence of these variables on the spread of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus, essential for effective disease management. The proposed flexible model demonstrates robust predictions for both training and test data, identifying climatological and environmental predictors influencing the dissemination of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus, the vascular bacterium associated with Huanglongbing (HLB) or greening.