Drought stands as a prevalent weather-related natural climatic disaster on a global scale. This study employs twenty GCMs from CMIP6 to investigate hydrological drought characteristics (frequency, duration, and intensity) across Africa under four SSPs (shared socioeconomic pathway) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 spanning three designated periods: 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term). The (SPEI) at a 12-month scale and employs bias correction on the multi-model ensemble mean extracted from GCMs of the CMIP6 project via cumulative distribution function (CDF). Mann–Kendall approach was implemented for trend and the SPEI-12-based drought trend from 1979 to 2014 displays a negative trajectory of − 0.05/a for Africa, with similar figures for specific regions: Northern Africa (NAF) at − 0.06/a, Sahara (SAH) at − 0.05/a, Western Africa (WAF) at − 0.01/a, Central Africa (CAF) at − 0.02/a, Eastern Africa (EAF) at − 0.06/a, and Southern Africa (SAF) at − 0.03/a. Notably, the severe drought characteristics are manifested as a 6-month duration, 12 occurrences, and an intensity of − 1.9 events over Africa. The highest duration and frequency are observed over NAF at 7.5-month and 15.1 occurrences, respectively, while the most extreme intensity of − 2.3 events is noted over SAH. In addition, future droughts are expected to be lower frequency, extended duration, and more intense. Extreme scenarios indicate values of − 2.1, − 2.2, and − 2.6 events for Africa in the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, respectively, compared to − 1.99 in the historical period. The intensity of the drought is expected to increase across all sub-regions, with SAH and NAF projecting the worst conditions with − 2.4, − 2.8, and − 3.0 events respectively for SAH and − 2.2, − 2.7, and − 3.0 events for NAF. Africa’s droughts are predicted to last 6, 8, and 13 months, significantly longer than the usual 4-month period. As the historical events of 17 times is anticipated to drop to 6, 5, and 3 times, respectively. The insights derived from this study could provide a foundational basis for devising effective drought adaptation strategies in Africa. Given the anticipated severity of drought events, prioritizing plans to cope with such challenges is of paramount importance.

China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO₂ emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO₂ emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO₂ emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.

Urban expansion directly reduces vegetation via impervious surface growth, though indirect urban environmental effects may partially offset these losses. This study examines the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 2000 to 2025 by integrating multi-source remote sensing and socioeconomic data to investigate the effects of urban expansion on vegetation greenness (NDVI) and productivity (NPP). The results show that impervious surfaces expanded from 21,747 km² to 33,688 km². Yet NDVI and NPP did not decline in tandem. Instead, they responded differently. NDVI exhibited broad increases—particularly in the northwest ecological zones. NPP was more sensitive to impervious surface expansion. Further analysis reveals that impervious surface coverage is the primary driver of NPP, while per capita GDP dominates NDVI. Correlation analysis confirms these relationships are consistent in direction. The combined contribution of socio-economic variables (GDP, per capita GDP, and population) substantially exceeds that of impervious surface area. This suggests that economic development, as a whole, is the dominant force shaping vegetation greenness in the region. These findings challenge the conventional trade-off narrative between urban growth and vegetation health. They demonstrate that urban expansion and ecological improvement can advance in parallel. This requires sustained greening investments and coordinated regional planning. The results offer actionable insights for carbon-sensitive land-use regulation in rapidly urbanizing regions.