Under the global dual-carbon goals, assessing regional solar potential is vital for the energy transition. This study evaluates solar resource potential and spatiotemporal redistribution risks in Guangxi, China, using ECMWF ERA5 and CMIP6 multi-scenario data. We develop an interactive spatiotemporal regression model by integrating optimal parameter geographic detectors with geographically weighted regression to quantify drivers' synergistic effects. Key findings: (1) solar resources exhibit strong path dependency, with the highest growth rate occurring under the medium-emission scenario due to the atmospheric purification effect.; (2) dominant drivers shift with scenarios: topography (low emissions), cloud-aerosol interactions (medium), and multi-factor synergy (high); and (3) The resource center migrates from the southwestern coast to the northeastern interior, with rising spatial-instability risks. This work supports optimized solar deployment and regional energy transition in Guangxi.

The karst ecologically fragile region of northern Guangxi faces dual pressures from wetland shrinkage and landscape functional degradation driven by rapid urbanisation. The mechanisms governing its multi-scale landscape pattern evolution and the dominance of disturbances require urgent clarification. This study integrates land use data from 1980 to 2020, employing ArcGIS 10.8 analysis, Fragstats landscape indices, and optimal parameter geographic detectors to construct a ‘pattern-process-driver’ interpretative framework in northern Guangxi. It quantitatively reveals the evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of wetland landscape patterns in northern Guangxi, thereby optimising wetland ecological conservation pathways. Results indicate the following: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, total wetland area decreased by 65.58 km², exhibiting a ‘structural substitution’ trend characterised by natural wetland decline and artificial wetland expansion. (2) Wetland landscape patterns exhibited intensified fragmentation and increased structural complexity. (3) Wetland evolution was primarily driven by annual mean temperature, GDP, and annual mean precipitation, reflecting a composite mechanism characterised by climate dominance, economic pressure, and policy failure. Specifically, the increase in temperature is the main reason for the decrease in natural wetlands, while economic growth dominates the expansion of artificial wetlands. This study provides scientific basis for karst wetland ecological restoration and differentiated territorial spatial planning, offering reference for ecological and environmental governance in karst watersheds.