This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
The national targets of reaching carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 propose higher requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction of China’s automobile industry. As an important measure for the government, the fuel consumption and new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy system has a significant impact on the Chinese and even the global vehicle market. Considering the lack of a systematic evaluation model for China’s fuel consumption and NEV credit regulations, this study establishes a hierarchical optimization decision-making model based on technology frontier curves and a multi-dimension database containing extensive data of technologies, products, and enterprises in the Chinese market to simulate and evaluate the technology compliance and policy impact under multiple regulations. The results show that, from the perspective of the technology frontier curve, gasoline technologies still have great cost-effectiveness advantages when the fuel-saving requirement is less than 46%, and the space for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REVs) is gradually shrinking due to the cost reduction of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEV400 will be better than PHEV70 and REV100 when the fuel-saving requirement is higher than 79%. Diesel vehicles are always not competitive in the passenger car market. In terms of the compliance of corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) regulation, the start-stop technology will be gradually phased out and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be rapidly introduced due to their high cost-effectiveness in 2025. With the tightening of regulations, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 23.7% and 6.7%, respectively, and mild hybrid electric vehicles will be gradually replaced by strong hybrid electric vehicles in 2030. By 2035, the penetration rate of BEVs and PHEVs will be 43.6% and 6% further. For the CAFC and NEV credit regulation (widely known as the dual credit regulation), the single-vehicle credit poses a greater impact on the penetration of NEVs than corporate credit percentage limitation and is the key factor that should be focused on. The NEV credit limitation in the dual credit regulation could push ‘poor performance’ automakers to produce the required number of NEVs and meet the bottom line. However, in the long term, when compared to the CAFC regulation, the dual credit regulation is more lenient, due to NEVs being able to get double benefits both on NEV credit and CAFC credit, and NEV credit can also unidirectionally compensate CAFC credit under the dual-credit policy context. With the increased penetration and cost reduction of NEVs, the ‘averaging’ effect of dual credit regulation will inhibit the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Therefore, eliminating the connection between NEV credit and CAFC credit or only leaving the CAFC and the fuel consumption limit regulations in the future will be better for the long-term development of the energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry.
Kangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu; Xinglong Liu. Hierarchical Optimization Decision-Making Method to Comply with China’s Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulations. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7842 .
AMA StyleKangda Chen, Fuquan Zhao, Han Hao, Zongwei Liu, Xinglong Liu. Hierarchical Optimization Decision-Making Method to Comply with China’s Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulations. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (14):7842.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu; Xinglong Liu. 2021. "Hierarchical Optimization Decision-Making Method to Comply with China’s Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulations." Sustainability 13, no. 14: 7842.
As a main measure to promote the development of China’s energy–saving and new energy vehicles, the Phase V fuel consumption regulation is dramatically different from the past four phases, especially in the test procedure, moving from the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) to the worldwide harmonized light duty test cycle (WLTC) and corresponding test procedure (WLTP). The switch of test procedure will not only affect the effectiveness of technologies but also change the fuel consumption target of the industry. However, few studies have systematically investigated the impacts of the new WLTP on the Chinese market. This study establishes a “technology–vehicle–fleet” bottom–up framework to estimate the impacts of test procedure switching on technology effectiveness and regulation stringency. The results show that due to the WLTP being closer to the real driving condition and more stringent, almost all baseline vehicles in the WLTP have higher fuel consumption than that in the NEDC, and diesel vehicles are slightly more impacted than gasoline vehicles. In addition, the impacts are increased with the strengthening of electrification, where the fuel consumption of plug–in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) in the WLTP are about 6% higher than that in the NEDC. Engine technologies that gain higher effects in low load conditions, such as turbocharging and downsizing, fuel stratified injection (FSI), lean–burn, and variable valve timing (VVT), are faced with deterioration in the WLTP. Among these, the effect of turbocharging and downsizing shows a maximum decline of 8.5%. The variable compression ratio (VCR) and stoichiometric gasoline direct injection (SGDI) are among the few technologies that benefited from procedure switching, with an average improvement of 1.6% and 0.2% respectively. Except for multi–speed transmissions, which have improvement effects in the WLTP, all automatic transmissions are faced with decreases. From the perspective of the whole fleet and national regulation target, the average fuel consumption in the WLTP will increase by about 7.5% in 2025 compared to 4 L/100 km in the NEDC. According to the current planning of the Chinese government, the fuel consumption target of Phase V is set at 4.6 L/100 km in 2025, which is equivalent to loosening the stringency by 0.3 L/100 km. In Phase VI, the target of 3.2 L/100 km is maintained, which is 30.4% stricter than that of Phase V, and the annual compound tightening rate reaches 7.5%. This means that automakers need to launch their product planning as soon as possible and expand the technology bandwidth to comply with the Phase VI fuel consumption regulation, and the government should evaluate the technical feasibility before determining the evaluation methods and targets of the next phase.
Kangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Xinglong Liu; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. Impacts of the New Worldwide Light-Duty Test Procedure on Technology Effectiveness and China’s Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulations. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2021, 18, 3199 .
AMA StyleKangda Chen, Fuquan Zhao, Xinglong Liu, Han Hao, Zongwei Liu. Impacts of the New Worldwide Light-Duty Test Procedure on Technology Effectiveness and China’s Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulations. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18 (6):3199.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Xinglong Liu; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. 2021. "Impacts of the New Worldwide Light-Duty Test Procedure on Technology Effectiveness and China’s Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulations." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 6: 3199.
The switching from new European driving cycle (NEDC) to worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP) will affect the energy consumption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and then affect the new energy vehicle (NEV) credit regulation and subsidy policy for PHEVs. This paper reveals the impact on energy consumption, NEV credit regulation, and subsidy policy for PHEV in the Chinese market of the switching from NEDC to WLTP based on qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. The results show that the WLTP procedure is stricter than NEDC in the determination of road load, test mass, driving resistance forces, and tire selection. Firstly, the electricity consumption (EC) of PHEV in charge-depleting mode (CD) under the WLTP procedure is 26% higher than NEDC on average, which makes the all-electric range (AER) significantly lower under WLTP. The weight EC tested in the WLTP procedure is higher than NEDC. Secondly, the fuel consumption (FC) of PHEV in CD mode is related to the adjustment of the engine management system (EMS) and the size of battery energy under the WLTP procedure. For the FC in the charge-sustaining (CS) mode of PHEV under the WLTP procedure is 20% higher than NEDC on average. However, the weight fuel consumption of PHEVs under WLTP with a long AER may be lower than that of NEDC due to the characteristics of utility factor in the WLTP procedure. Thirdly, most PHEVs fail to meet the requirements of 50 km AER due to the switching of the test procedures. However, the Chinese government reduced the technical specification of PHEV’s AER under the WLTP procedure to 43 km to support the development of PHEV technology. It ensures that the switching of test procedures does not change the treatment that they could obtain, the NEV credits, and subsidy as a NEV in China. However, the increasing of the EC in CD mode and the FC in CS mode under the WLTP procedure makes the PHEV obtain lower credit and subsidy multiple compared with NEDC procedure.
Xinglong Liu; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Kangda Chen; Zongwei Liu; Hassan Babiker; Amer Amer. From NEDC to WLTP: Effect on the Energy Consumption, NEV Credits, and Subsidies Policies of PHEV in the Chinese Market. Sustainability 2020, 12, 5747 .
AMA StyleXinglong Liu, Fuquan Zhao, Han Hao, Kangda Chen, Zongwei Liu, Hassan Babiker, Amer Amer. From NEDC to WLTP: Effect on the Energy Consumption, NEV Credits, and Subsidies Policies of PHEV in the Chinese Market. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (14):5747.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXinglong Liu; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Kangda Chen; Zongwei Liu; Hassan Babiker; Amer Amer. 2020. "From NEDC to WLTP: Effect on the Energy Consumption, NEV Credits, and Subsidies Policies of PHEV in the Chinese Market." Sustainability 12, no. 14: 5747.
With the increasing pressure on the automotive industry due to energy consumption, environmental pollution and climate change, internal combustion engines, which occupy a dominant position in traditional automotive powertrains, are facing considerable challenges from battery electric powertrains. This paper presents an in-depth analysis and objective interpretation of the challenges, potential and opportunities for internal combustion engines in this point. Specifically, the global automotive industry is approaching the “Power 2.0 era”, and multiple powertrains will coexist for a long time. The relationships between the various powertrains are complementary rather than simply competitive in China. Only by optimizing the product and technology combination can the best solution be obtained to meet the increasingly stringent regulations and the escalating needs for mobility. At the same time, internal combustion engines will continue to play an important role in the development of the automotive industry, and they have the potential for further improvement in plenty of areas, such as thermal efficiency, emissions and electrification. Internal combustion engines will undergo an important evolution toward high efficiency through fixed-point operation, system simplification and cost reduction. In addition, the electrification of powertrains, the upgrading and diversification of fuel designs, and the development of intelligent and connected technologies will bring unprecedented opportunities for making the internal combustion engine more efficient, green and clean to better serve society in the near future.
Fuquan Zhao; Kangda Chen; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. Challenges, Potential and Opportunities for Internal Combustion Engines in China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4955 .
AMA StyleFuquan Zhao, Kangda Chen, Han Hao, Zongwei Liu. Challenges, Potential and Opportunities for Internal Combustion Engines in China. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (12):4955.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFuquan Zhao; Kangda Chen; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. 2020. "Challenges, Potential and Opportunities for Internal Combustion Engines in China." Sustainability 12, no. 12: 4955.
With the phasing down of subsidies, China has launched the new energy vehicle (NEV) credit regulation to continuously promote the penetration of electric vehicles. The two policies will coexist through 2020 and definitely pose a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and even the global electric vehicle market. However, few studies have systematically investigated the relationship between the two policies as well as the synergistic impacts during the overlap period. This paper interprets the rationales of China’s subsidy policy and NEV credit regulation and establishes a bottom-up model to estimate the synergistic impacts of the two policies on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from the perspective of credit cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the subsidy policy still maintains strong support for the development of electric vehicles in China. For small BEVs whose driving ranges are higher than 300 km, subsidies even account for 40–50% of the manufacturing cost. In addition, we conclude that the two policies will complement each other in the transitional period and small BEVs are preferred by both policies. Under the NEV credit regulation, 350 km will consistently be the optimal driving range, which will definitely limit the development of other ranges. With the addition of the subsidy, the limitation will be amended in the short run. However, the effect of the subsidy is decreasing and is going to be canceled after 2020, so the focus should be on the optimization of the NEV credit regulation.
Kangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. Synergistic Impacts of China’s Subsidy Policy and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation on the Technological Development of Battery Electric Vehicles. Energies 2018, 11, 3193 .
AMA StyleKangda Chen, Fuquan Zhao, Han Hao, Zongwei Liu. Synergistic Impacts of China’s Subsidy Policy and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation on the Technological Development of Battery Electric Vehicles. Energies. 2018; 11 (11):3193.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Zongwei Liu. 2018. "Synergistic Impacts of China’s Subsidy Policy and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation on the Technological Development of Battery Electric Vehicles." Energies 11, no. 11: 3193.
The newly launched new energy vehicle credit regulation scheme is expected to have a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and global new energy vehicle markets. This paper establishes a bottom-up framework to estimate the impacts of regulation on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles based on the most up-to-date data from the market in China. The results suggest that mini-electric cars will always be the most credit cost-effective. Moreover, 350 km will be the optimal driving range under the credit regulation. With the development of energy-saving technologies, midsize electric vehicles will increase in popularity before 2020 and be the first to receive the highest credit of 6. Additionally, promoted by the regulation, the investment in energy-saving technologies will reduce the cost of batteries and lead to higher credits, especially for large-class and high electric range vehicles. However, the regulation likely faces the risk of losing this positive effect in 2025 or even earlier. To avoid such a circumstance, the relevant policies should be modified before such a scenario occurs.
Fuquan Zhao; Kangda Chen; Han Hao; Sinan Wang; Zongwei Liu. Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 2018, 21, 275 -289.
AMA StyleFuquan Zhao, Kangda Chen, Han Hao, Sinan Wang, Zongwei Liu. Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy. 2018; 21 (2):275-289.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFuquan Zhao; Kangda Chen; Han Hao; Sinan Wang; Zongwei Liu. 2018. "Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030." Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 21, no. 2: 275-289.
In order to address the increasing energy and environmental concerns, China and the US both launched the fuel economy regulations and aim to push the development of technology. In this study, the stringency of CAFC and CAFE regulations and the technology development of two countries are compared. Besides, the optimal technology pathways of America and automakers for the compliance of CAFE regulations are calculated based on the modified VOLPE model, and the results are used as reference for China. The results indicate that the annual regulation improvement rates of China is higher than America and the AIR of China 2015-2020 regulation reaches 6.2% and is the most stringent phase in 10 years from 2015 to 2025. From the perspective of technology, there are still big gaps between China and the US in the applications of advanced fuel saving technologies. For both countries, engine still will plays the biggest role in the technology roadmap through 2025 and the contribution rates of electrification and vehicle assembly technologies will increase quickly. The 2020 targets can be reached by the improvement and optimization of existing fuel saving technologies, and 70% hybridization technologies should be introduced for the compliance of the 2025 regulation. The penetration of PHEV/EVs will be 2-3% of the passenger car fleet in MY 2025 and FCV is not necessary for the compliance of US 2025 CAFE target. However, new energy products still need to be prepared in China because of the implementation of dual-credit regulations of CAFC and NEV.
Kangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Zongwei Liu; Han Hao. Fuel Economy Regulations and Technology Roadmaps of China and the US: Comparison and Outlook. SAE Technical Paper Series 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleKangda Chen, Fuquan Zhao, Zongwei Liu, Han Hao. Fuel Economy Regulations and Technology Roadmaps of China and the US: Comparison and Outlook. SAE Technical Paper Series. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKangda Chen; Fuquan Zhao; Zongwei Liu; Han Hao. 2018. "Fuel Economy Regulations and Technology Roadmaps of China and the US: Comparison and Outlook." SAE Technical Paper Series , no. : 1.
Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is regarded as an important technology in solving the energy and environment crisis. In this paper, the HEV technology applied in passenger cars by major automotive OEMs such as Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford, Volkswagen, BMW are investigated. The configuration diagrams for each OEM are presented. Based on the architecture analysis, a classification is done according to similar structures and performances. Furthermore, a cost estimation methodology for HEV is presented based on the preliminary tear-down research done by Environment Protection Agency (EPA). Meanwhile, the logarithmic relationship between fuel consumption (FC) reduction and degree of hybridization (DOH) is discovered by investigating 30 different hybrid cars. Combining the cost estimation and relation between FC&DOH, the hybridization cost for cars to meet the FC regulations can be calculated. Lastly, to check the cost and hybridization of HEV in the future, a car fleet of typical OEM is selected and the cost for its hybridization is calculated using the method mentioned above considering phase IV FC regulation in China.
Tianze Shi; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Kangda Chen; Zongwei Liu. Structure Analysis and Cost Estimation of Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicle and the Application in China Case. SAE Technical Paper Series 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleTianze Shi, Fuquan Zhao, Han Hao, Kangda Chen, Zongwei Liu. Structure Analysis and Cost Estimation of Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicle and the Application in China Case. SAE Technical Paper Series. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTianze Shi; Fuquan Zhao; Han Hao; Kangda Chen; Zongwei Liu. 2018. "Structure Analysis and Cost Estimation of Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicle and the Application in China Case." SAE Technical Paper Series , no. : 1.