To address the mismatch between agricultural development and water resource conditions, this study examined 22 provinces and four municipalities in China over the period 2014–2023 and incorporated terrain factors into the analytical framework. An integrated evaluation system was developed for the Agricultural Development Index (ADI) and Water Resource Condition Index (WCI). The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, standard deviation ellipse model, spatial difference coefficient, and two-way fixed-effects model were employed to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and coordination between agricultural development and water resource conditions. The results indicate that the ADI increased steadily throughout the study period, whereas the WCI remained relatively stable, reflecting distinct evolutionary trajectories of the two systems. Although the coordination level of the Agriculture–Water Resources System improved overall, pronounced regional disparities persisted. Plain regions exhibited stronger coordination, whereas mountainous and plateau regions showed lower coordination levels because of terrain constraints and limited resource endowments. Spatial mismatches between agricultural and water resource advantage regions were evident, although the overall matching relationship between the two systems gradually strengthened. The proposed evaluation framework provides a scientific basis for optimizing regional agricultural layouts, improving water resource allocation, and promoting coordinated agricultural and water resource development.

Addressing the mismatch between agricultural development and water resource conditions, this study selected 22 provinces and 4 municipalities in China from 2014 to 2023 as the research area and incorporated terrain factors into the analytical framework. An evaluation system for the Agricultural Emphasis Index and Water Resource Condition Index was established. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, standard deviation ellipse model, spatial difference coefficient, and two-way fixed effects model were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations and coordination relationships between agricultural development and water resource conditions. The results showed that the Agricultural Emphasis Index continuously increased during the study period, whereas water resource conditions remained relatively stable, indicating different evolutionary patterns between the two systems. The coordination level of the Agriculture–Water Resources System generally improved, but significant regional disparities remained. Plain regions exhibited stronger coordination foundations, while mountainous and plateau regions showed relatively lower coordination levels due to terrain constraints and resource limitations. Spatial displacement existed between agricultural advantage regions and water resource advantage regions, although the matching degree between the two systems gradually improved. The evaluation framework established in this study provides a scientific basis for optimizing regional agricultural layouts, improving water resource allocation, and promoting coordinated agricultural and water resource development.