Lidar‐measured snow depth and model‐estimated snow density can be combined to map snow water equivalent (SWE). This approach has the potential to transform research and operations in snow‐dominated regions, but sources of uncertainty need quantification. We compared relative uncertainty contributions from lidar depth measurement and density modeling to SWE estimation, utilizing lidar data from the Tuolumne Basin (California). We found a density uncertainty of 0.048 g cm⁻³ by comparing output from four models. For typical lidar depth uncertainty (8 cm), density estimation was the dominant source of SWE uncertainty when snow exceeded 60 cm depth, representing >70% of snow cover and 90% of SWE volume throughout the basin in both 2014 and 2016. Density uncertainty accounts for 75% of the SWE uncertainty for a broader range of snowpack characteristics, as measured at SNOTEL stations throughout the western U.S. Reducing density uncertainty is essential for improved SWE mapping with lidar.

Maps of snow cover serve as early indicators for hydrologic forecasts and as inputs to hydrologic models that inform water management strategies. Advances in snow cover mapping have led to increasing accuracy, but unsatisfactory treatment of vegetation's interference when mapping snow has led to maps that have limited utility for water forecasting. Vegetation affects snow mapping because ground surfaces not visible to the satellite produce uncertainty as to whether the ground is snow covered. At nadir, the forest canopy obscures the satellite view below the canopy. At oblique viewing angles, the forest floor is obscured by both the canopy and the projection of tree profiles onto the forest floor. We present a canopy correction method based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite imagery validated with field observations that mitigates geometric and georegistration issues associated with changing satellite acquisition angles in forested areas. The largest effect from a variable viewing zenith angle on the viewable gap fraction in forested areas occurs in moderately forested areas with 30–40% tree canopy coverage. Cloud cover frequently causes errors in snow identification, with some clouds identified as snow and some snow identified as cloud. A snow‐cloud identification method utilizes a time series of fractional vegetation and rock land‐surface data to flag snow‐cloud identification errors and improve snow‐map accuracy reducing bias by 20% over previous methods. Together, these contributions to snow‐mapping techniques could advance hydrologic forecasting in forested, snow‐dominated basins that comprise an estimated one fifth of Northern Hemisphere snow‐covered areas.

Snow cover mapping algorithms utilizing multispectral satellite data at various spatial resolutions are available, each treating subpixel variation differently. Past evaluations of snow mapping accuracy typically relied on satellite data collected at a higher spatial resolution than the data in question. However, these optical data cannot characterize snow cover mapping performance under forest canopies or at the meter scale. Here, we use 3 m spatial resolution snow depth maps collected on 116 d by an aerial laser scanner to validate band ratio and spectral-mixture snow cover mapping algorithms. Such a comprehensive evaluation of sub-canopy snow mapping performance has not been undertaken previously. The following standard (produced operationally by an agency) products are evaluated: NASA gap-filled Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD10A1F, NASA gap-filled Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) VNP10A1F, and United States Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat 8 Level-3 Fractional Snow Covered Area. Two spectral-unmixing approaches are also evaluated: Snow-Covered Area and Grain Size (SCAG) and Snow Property Inversion from Remote Sensing (SPIReS), both of which are gap-filled MODIS products and are also run on Landsat 8. We assess subpixel snow mapping performance while considering the fractional snow-covered area (fSCA), canopy cover, sensor zenith angle, and other variables within six global seasonal snow classes. Metrics are calculated at the pixel and basin scales, including the root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias, and F statistic (a detection measure). The newer MOD10A1F Version 61 and VNP10A1F Version 1 product biases (− 7.1 %, −9.5 %) improve significantly when linear equations developed for older products are applied (2.8 %, −2.7 %) to convert band ratios to fSCA. The F statistics are unchanged (94.4 %, 93.1 %) and the VNP10A1F RMSE improves (18.6 % to 15.7 %), while the MOD10A1F RMSE worsens (12.7 % to 13.7 %). Consistent with previous studies, spectral-unmixing approaches (SCAG, SPIReS) show lower biases (−0.1 %, −0.1 %) and RMSE (12.1 %, 12.0 %), with higher F statistics (95.6 %, 96.1 %) relative to the band ratio approaches for MODIS. Landsat 8 products are all spectral-mixture methods with low biases (−0.4 % to 0.3 %), low RMSE (11.4 % to 15.8 %), and high F statistics (97.3 % to 99.1 %). Spectral-unmixing methods can improve snow cover mapping at the global scale.

Snow depth observations can be leveraged with data assimilation (DA) to improve estimation of snow density and snow water equivalent (SWE). A key consideration for mission and campaign design is how snow depth retrieval characteristics (including observation timing/frequency and sampling error) influence SWE accuracy and uncertainty in a DA framework. To quantify these effects, we implement a particle filter (PF) assimilation technique to assimilate depth and validate this approach against observed snow density and SWE at 49 snow telemetry sites across 9 years. We sample from continuous in situ snow depth records to test a range of measurement timing and sampling error scenarios representative of remote sensing capabilities. Assimilation reduces density bias by over 40% and SWE bias by over 70% across climate zones and in both wet and dry years. There is little incremental benefit to SWE accuracy when assimilating more than one depth observation near peak accumulation. SWE estimates are less sensitive to observation timing than sampling error. Alternatively, more frequent depth observations improve melt‐out date timing and reduce SWE uncertainty, a key consideration when evaluating the operational utility of DA. In matching depth observations, the PF mostly acts to increase model precipitation inputs, while not systematically shifting other parameter values or forcings across the climate zones represented with the study sites. This demonstrates that precipitation is the largest source of model error. With DA, density errors are still nontrivial (above 10%), illuminating the need for further improvements to modeled density to estimate SWE within specified error limits.

Snow depth observations and modeled snow density can be combined to calculate snow water equivalent (SWE). In this approach, SWE uncertainty is dominated by snow density uncertainty, which depends on meteorological data quality and process representation (e.g., compaction) in models. We test whether assimilating snow depth observations with the particle filter can improve modeled snow density, thus improving SWE estimated from intermittent depth observations. We model snowpack at Mammoth Mountain (California) over water years 2013–2016, assuming monthly snow depth data (e.g., sampling intervals relevant to lidar or manual surveys) for assimilation, and validate against observed SWE and density. The particle filter reduced density and SWE root‐mean‐square error by 27% and 28% relative to open loop simulations when using high‐quality, point location forcing. Assimilation gains were greater (35% and 51% reduction in density and SWE root‐mean‐square error) when using coarse‐resolution North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 meteorology. Ensembles created with both meteorological and compaction perturbations led to the greatest model improvements. Because modeled depth and density were both generally lower than observations, assimilation favored particles with higher precipitation and thus more overburden compaction. This moved depth and density (therefore SWE) closer to observations. In contrast, ensemble generation that varied only compaction parameters degraded performance. These results were supported by synthetic experiments with prescribed error sources. Thus, assimilation of snow depth data from lidar or other techniques can likely improve snow density and SWE derived at the basin scale. However, supplementary in situ observations are valuable to identify primary error sources in simulated snow depth and density.

Reliable maps of snow‐covered areas at scales of meters to tens of meters, with daily temporal resolution, are essential to understanding snow heterogeneity, melt runoff, energy exchange, and ecological processes. Here we develop a parsimonious downscaling routine that can be applied to fractional snow covered area (fSCA) products from satellite platforms such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that provide daily ∼500 m data, to derive higher‐resolution snow presence/absence grids. The method uses a composite index combining both the topographic position index (TPI) to represent accumulation effects and the diurnal anisotropic heat (DAH, sun exposure) index to represent ablation effects. The procedure is evaluated and calibrated using airborne‐derived high‐resolution data sets across the Tuolumne watershed, CA using 11 scenes in 2014 to downscale to 30 m resolution. The average matching F score was 0.83. We then tested our method's transferability in time and space by comparing against the Tuolumne watershed in water years 2013 and 2015, and over an entirely different site, Mt. Rainier, WA in 2009 and 2011, to assess applicability to other topographic and climatic conditions. For application to sites without validation data, we recommend equal weights for the TPI and DAH indices and close TPI neighborhoods (60 and 27 m for downscaling to 30 and 3 m, respectively), which worked well in both our study areas. The method is less effective in forested areas, which still requires site‐specific treatment. We demonstrate that the procedure can even be applied to downscale to 3 m resolution, a very fine scale relevant to alpine ecohydrology research.