The potential impact of Doppler wind lidar (DWL) observations from a proposed optical autocovariance wind lidar (OAWL) instrument is quantified in observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The OAWL design would provide profiles of useful wind vectors along a ground track to the left of the International Space Station (ISS), which is in a 51.6° inclination low earth orbit (LEO). These observations are simulated realistically, accounting for cloud and aerosol distributions inferred from the OSSE nature runs (NRs), and measurement and sampling error sources. The impact of the simulated observations is determined in both global and regional OSSE frameworks. The global OSSE uses the ECMWF T511 NR and the NCEP operational global data assimilation (DA) system at T382 resolution. The regional OSSE uses an embedded hurricane NR and the NCEP operational HWRF DA system with outer and inner domains of 9 and 3 km resolution.The global OSSE results show improved analyses and forecasts of tropical winds a...

This study presents wind observations from an airborne Doppler Wind Lidar (ADWL) in 2016 tropical cyclones (TC). A description of ADWL measurement collection and quality control methods is introduced for the use in a TC environment. Validation against different instrumentation on-board the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s WP-3D aircraft shows good agreement of the retrieved ADWL measured wind speed and direction. Measurements taken from instruments such as the global positioning system dropsonde, flight-level wind probe, tail Doppler radar, and Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer are compared to ADWL observations by creating paired datasets. These paired observations represent independent measurements of the same observation space through a variety of mapping techniques that account for differences in measurement procedure. Despite high correlation values, outliers are identified and discussed in detail. The errors between paired observations appear to be caused by differences in the ability to capture various length scales, which directly relate to certain regions in a TC regime. In validating these datasets and providing evidence that shows the mitigation of gaps in 3-dimensional wind representation, the unique wind observations collected via ADWL have significant potential to impact numerical weather prediction of TCs.

This study presents a verification and an analysis of wind profile data collected during Tropical Storm Erika (2015) by a Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) instrument aboard a P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). DWL-measured winds are compared to those from nearly collocated GPS dropsondes, and show good agreement in terms of both the wind magnitude and asymmetric distribution of the wind field. A comparison of the DWL-measured wind speeds versus dropsonde-measured wind speeds yields a reasonably good correlation (r² = 0.95), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.58 m s⁻¹ and a bias of −0.023 m s⁻¹. Our analysis shows that the DWL complements the existing P3 Doppler radar, in that it collects wind data in rain-free and low-rain regions where Doppler radar is limited for wind observations. The DWL observations also complement dropsonde measurements by significantly enlarging the sampling size and spatial coverage of the boundary layer winds. An analysis of the DWL wind data shows that the boundary layer of Erika was much deeper than that of a typical hurricane-strength storm. Streamline and vorticity analyses based on DWL wind observations explain why Erika maintained intensity in a sheared environment. This study suggests that DWL wind data are valuable for real-time intensity forecasts, basic understanding of the boundary layer structure and dynamics, and offshore wind energy applications under tropical cyclone conditions.

In the past, the Lorenz 1963 and 1969 models have been applied for revealing the chaotic nature of weather and climate and for estimating the atmospheric predictability limit. Recently, an in-depth analysis of classical Lorenz 1963 models and newly developed, generalized Lorenz models suggested a revised view that “the entirety of weather possesses a dual nature of chaos and order with distinct predictability”, in contrast to the conventional view of “weather is chaotic”. The distinct predictability associated with attractor coexistence suggests limited predictability for chaotic solutions and unlimited predictability (or up to their lifetime) for non-chaotic solutions. Such a view is also supported by a recent analysis of the Lorenz 1969 model that is capable of producing both unstable and stable solutions. While the alternative appearance of two kinds of attractor coexistence was previously illustrated, in this study, multistability (for attractor coexistence) and monostability (for single type solutions) are further discussed using kayaking and skiing as an analogy. Using a slowly varying, periodic heating parameter, we additionally emphasize the predictable nature of recurrence for slowly varying solutions and a less predictable (or unpredictable) nature for the onset for emerging solutions (defined as the exact timing for the transition from a chaotic solution to a non-chaotic limit cycle type solution). As a result, we refined the revised view outlined above to: “The atmosphere possesses chaos and order; it includes, as examples, emerging organized systems (such as tornadoes) and time varying forcing from recurrent seasons”. In addition to diurnal and annual cycles, examples of non-chaotic weather systems, as previously documented, are provided to support the revised view.

Within Lorenz models, the three major kinds of butterfly effects (BEs) are the sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC), the ability of a tiny perturbation to create an organized circulation at large distances, and the hypothetical role of small-scale processes in contributing to finite predictability, referred to as the first, second, and third kinds of butterfly effects (BE1, BE2, and BE3), respectively. A well-accepted definition of the butterfly effect is the BE1 with SDIC, which was rediscovered by Lorenz in 1963. In fact, the use of the term “butterfly” appeared in a conference presentation by Lorenz in 1972, when Lorenz introduced the BE2 as the metaphorical butterfly effect. In 2014, the so-called “real butterfly effect”, which is based on the features of Lorenz’s study in 1969, was introduced as the BE3.