This study assessed blue carbon stocks in the Cispatá Bay Regional Integrated Management District (DRMI), Colombian Caribbean, using multitemporal Random Forest classification of Sentinel-1/2 imagery (2016–2025) spanning contrasting ENSO conditions. Mangrove total ecosystem carbon density was estimated using the transferred Tier 1 value of 511 Mg C ha⁻¹; the locally reported aboveground-carbon value was used only to describe component partitioning and does not change that total density. Raw mapped total-stock estimates ranged from 7.0 to 8.9 million tC, with mangroves accounting for more than 92% of the total. A high-confidence classification-persistent mangrove core of 8894 ha stored 4.54 million tC. Using the unfiltered 2024 agriculture/pasture plus aquaculture layer, the entire core occurred within 250 m of mapped anthropogenic pressure (mean distance 24.1 m; maximum 186.8 m). In a conservative sensitivity scenario that removed pressure patches < 0.5 ha, 99.1% remained within 250 m and 100% within 500 m (mean 53.9 m; maximum 382.1 m). Independent design-based validation was available only for 2020 and 2024, with area-adjusted overall accuracies of 80.2% and 72.4%, respectively; the difference in conventional overall accuracy (54.0% versus 50.4%) was not statistically significant. Consequently, ENSO-related differences are interpreted as exploratory associations rather than causal effects. The results quantify spatial exposure to surrounding land use and provide a monitoring baseline that complements field-based programs in Cispatá Bay.