Aim: Over the past 50 years, anthropogenic activities have led to the disappearance of approximately one‐third of the world's mangrove forests and their associated ecosystem services. The synergetic combined effect of projected climate change is likely to further impact mangroves in the years to come, whether by range expansions associated with warming at higher latitudes or large‐scale diebacks linked to severe droughts. We provide an estimate of future changes in the extent and aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forests at global scales by considering contrasting Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (decade 2090–2100 under RCP 2.6 in line with the Paris Agreement expectations, and RCP 8.5 of higher emissions).Location: Global.Methods: Boosted regression trees fitted occurrence and AGB of mangroves against high‐resolution biologically meaningful data on air temperature, precipitation, wave energy, slope and distance to river Deltas.Results: On the global scale, models produced for present‐day conditions retrieved high accuracy scores and estimated a total area of 12,780,356 ha and overall biomass of 2.29 Pg, in line with previous estimates. Model projections showed poleward shifts along temperate regions, which translated into comparable gains in total area, regardless of the RCP scenario (area change RCP 2.6: 17.29%; RCP 8.5: 15.77%). However, biomass changes were dependent on the emission scenario considered, remaining stable or even increasing under RCP 2.6, or undergoing severe losses across tropical regions under RCP 8.5 (overall biomass change RCP 2.6: 12.97%; RCP 8.5: −11.51%). Such losses were particularly aggravated in countries located in the Tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Western and Eastern Indo‐Pacific regions (regions with losses above ~20% in overall biomass).Conclusions: Our global estimates highlight the potential effect of future climate changes on mangrove forests and how broad compliance with the Paris Agreement may counteract severe trajectories of loss. The projections made, also provided at the country level, serve as new baselines to evaluate changes in mangrove carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, strongly supporting policy‐making and management directives, as well as to guide restoration actions considering potential future changes in niche availability.

This manuscript describes the evaluation of anti-infective potential in vitro of organic extracts from nine sponges, one ascidian, two octocorals, one bryozoan, and 27 seaweed species collected along the Brazilian coast. Antimicrobial activity was tested against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923), Enterococcus faecalis (ATCC 29212), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC 27853), Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922) and Candida albicans (ATCC 10231) by the disk diffusion method. Antiprotozoal activity was evaluated against Leishmania braziliensis (MHOM/BR/96/LSC96-H3) promastigotes and Trypanosoma cruzi (MHOM/BR/00/Y) epimastigotes by MTT assay. Activity against intracellular amastigotes of T. cruzi and L. brasiliensis in murine macrophages was also evaluated. Antiviral activity was tested against Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1, KOS strain) by the plaque number reduction assay (IC₅₀). Cytotoxicity on VERO cells was evaluated by the MTT assay (CC₅₀). The results were expressed as SI = CC₅₀/IC₅₀. The most promising antimicrobial results were obtained against S. aureus and C. albicans with Dragmacidon reticulatum. Among the seaweeds, only Osmundaria obtusiloba showed moderate activity against P. aeruginosa. Concerning antiprotozoal activity, Bugula neritina, Carijoa riseii, Dragmaxia anomala and Haliclona (Halichoclona) sp. showed the most interesting results, mainly against extracellular promastigote forms of L. braziliensis (66, 35.9, 97.2, and 43.6% inhibition, respectively). Moreover, six species of seaweeds Anadyomene saldanhae, Caulerpa cupressoides, Canistrocarpus cervicornis, Dictyota sp., Ochtodes secundiramea, and Padina sp. showed promising results against L. braziliensis (87.9, 51.7, 85.9, 93.3, 99.7, and 80.9% inhibition, respectively), and only Dictyota sp. was effective against T. cruzi (60.4% inhibition). Finally, the antiherpes activity was also evaluated, with Haliclona (Halichoclona) sp. and Petromica citrina showing the best results (SI = 11.9 and SI > 5, respectively). All the active extracts deserve special attention in further studies to chemically characterize the bioactive compounds, and to perform more refined biological assays.

The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove’s genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person’s correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves’ biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.