Investigating systematic meteorological–agricultural–hydrological drought propagation within an integrated watershed framework is crucial yet challenging for advancing robust early warning systems and targeted resilience strategies. To address this gap, this study employs the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), and nonlinear joint hydrological drought index (NJHDI) to characterize meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, respectively. Utilizing the strongest correlation method, variations in the propagation time along moisture movement pathways within the system are quantified using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The Yellow River basin (YRB) is selected as the case study area. Key results reveal distinct seasonal patterns in meteorological–agricultural propagation across the basin, with escalated spring and summer timescales. However, weaker correlations and limited seasonality emerge for agricultural–hydrological linkages due to sustaining baseflow buffers. Specifically, the arid and semiarid region exhibited shorter propagation time with 1–5 months, while the semiarid and semihumid region displayed longer timescales with 7–12 months. These findings provide valuable scientific references for enhancing real-time early warning systems tailored to coupled watershed systems. The integrated methodology underscores the importance of unraveling fine-scale spatiotemporal propagation variability for localized drought resilience.

The primary innovation of this study lies in the development of an integrated modeling framework that combines downscaled climate projections, land-use-change simulations, and copula-based risk analysis. This framework allows for the assessment of localized sub-seasonal and seasonal drought hazards under future scenarios. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent the future climate for 2025–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future land-use-change distributions. The climate–land use–drought modeling nexus enables the generation of refined spatio-temporal projections of meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the future period of 2025–2060. The results highlight the increased vulnerability of the upper YRB to sub-seasonal meteorological droughts, as well as the heightened sub-seasonal hydrological drought risks in the Loess Plateau. Furthermore, downstream areas experience escalated seasonal hydrological drought exposure due to urbanization. By providing actionable insights into localized future drought patterns, this integrated assessment approach advances preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. The findings of the study enhance our understanding of potential changes in this integral system under the combined pressures of global climate change and land use shifts.

The investigation of the spatiotemporal propagation characteristics of the "meteorological-agricultural-hydrological" drought system, under diverse climatic conditions, is crucial for the development of a robust drought warning system and the effective implementation of proactive drought prevention and resilience strategies. To achieve this, the current study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate key components of the watershed water cycle, such as evaporation, surface water, soil water, and groundwater. Specifically, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), and the Nonlinear Joint Hydrological Drought Index (NJHDI) are employed to characterize meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and hydrological drought, respectively. By analyzing the correlation between these types of drought, the propagation characteristics of the "meteorological-agricultural-hydrological" drought system are elucidated using the rigorous strongest correlation coefficient method. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is chosen as the case study for this research. Results showed that (1) The propagation time from meteorological to agricultural drought exhibited distinct seasonal characteristics, with durations of 5-6 months in spring, 2-3 months in summer, 3-5 months in autumn, and 6-8 months in winter. Compared to 1961-1990, the propagation time increased in spring and summer but decreased in autumn and winter during 1991-2010 for most YRB regions. (2) The agricultural to hydrological drought propagation showed no clear seasonal differences but increased over time. Specifically, zone C (arid/semi-arid with moderate temperatures) had shorter propagation time of 1-5 months, while zones B (transitional plateau to mid-latitude) and E (semi-arid/semi-humid temperate continental climate) experienced longer propagation time of 7-12 months. (3) Despite the extended timescales, agricultural-hydrological drought correlation was weaker than meteorological-agricultural linkage. This is because meteorological deficits directly reduce soil moisture, rapidly inducing agricultural drought. However, groundwater sustaining baseflow during agricultural drought delays streamflow deficits, prolonging the agricultural-hydrological propagation time.

The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.