This article addresses the issue of information security in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) environment. Information security risk assessment in the IIoT is complicated by several factors: the complexity and heterogeneity of the system, the dynamic nature of the system, the distributed network infrastructure, the lack of standards and guidelines, and the increased consequences of security breaches. Given these factors, information security risk assessment in the IIoT requires a comprehensive approach adapted to the peculiarities and requirements of a particular system and industry. It is necessary to use specialized risk assessment methods and to take into account the context and peculiarities of the system. The method of information security risk assessment in the IIoT, based on the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy set theory, is proposed. This paper analyzes information security threats for IIoT systems, from which the most significant criteria are selected. The rules, based on which decisions are made, are formulated in the form of logical formulas containing input parameters. Three fuzzy inference systems are used: one to estimate the probability of threat realization, another to estimate the probable damage, and a final one to estimate the information security risk for the IIoT system. Based on the proposed method, examples of calculating the information security risk assessment in the IIoT environment are provided. The proposed scientific approach can serve as a foundation for creating expert decision support systems for designing IIoT systems.

The rapid deployment of photovoltaic generation increases uncertainty in power-system operation and strengthens the need for ultra-short-term forecasts with reliable uncertainty estimates. Point-forecasting approaches alone are often insufficient for dispatch and reserve decisions because they do not quantify risk. This study investigates probabilistic forecasting of short-horizon solar generation using quantile regression on a public dataset of solar output and meteorological variables. This study proposes a hybrid attention–convolution model that combines an attention-based encoder to capture long-range temporal dependencies with a causal temporal convolution module that extracts fast local fluctuations using only past information, preventing information leakage. The two representations are fused and decoded jointly across multiple future horizons to produce consistent quantile trajectories. Experiments against representative machine-learning and deep-learning baselines show improved probabilistic accuracy and competitive central forecasts, while illustrating an important sharpness–calibration trade-off relevant to risk-aware grid operation. Key novelties include a multi-horizon quantile formulation at 15 min resolution for one-hour-ahead PV increments, a HybridCNN–STTransformer that fuses causal temporal convolutions with Transformer attention, and a horizon-token decoder that models inter-horizon dependencies to produce consistent multi-step quantile trajectories; reliability/sharpness diagnostics and post hoc calibration are discussed for operational risk-aware use.

We propose the Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Transformer with Multi-Branch CNN/RNN and Extreme-Event Head (HST–MB–CREH), a hybrid spatio-temporal deep learning architecture for joint short-term photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting and the detection of rare extreme events, to support the reliable operation of renewable-rich power systems. The model combines a spatio-temporal transformer encoder with three convolutional neural network (CNN)/recurrent neural network (RNN) branches (CNN → long short-term memory (LSTM), LSTM → gated recurrent unit (GRU), CNN → GRU) and a dense pathway for tabular meteorological and calendar features. A multitask output head simultaneously performs the regression of PV power and binary classification of extremes defined above the 95th percentile. We evaluate HST–MB–CREH on the publicly available Renewable Power Generation and Weather Conditions dataset with hourly resolutions from 2017 to 2022, using a 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit protocol to avoid temporal leakage and to cover multiple seasons. Compared with tree ensembles (RandomForest, XGBoost), recurrent baselines (Stacked GRU, LSTM), and advanced hybrid/transformer models (Hybrid Multi-Branch CNN–LSTM/GRU with Dense Path and Extreme-Event Head (HMB–CLED) and Spatio-Temporal Multitask Transformer with Extreme-Event Head (STM–EEH)), the proposed architecture achieves the best overall trade-off between accuracy and rare-event sensitivity, with normalized performance of RMSE_z = 0.2159 ± 0.0167, MAE_z = 0.1100 ± 0.0085, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 9.17 ± 0.45%, R² = 0.9534 ± 0.0072, and AUC_ext = 0.9851 ± 0.0051 across folds. Knowledge extraction is supported via attention-based analysis and permutation feature importance, which highlight the dominant role of global horizontal irradiance, diurnal harmonics, and solar geometry features. The results indicate that hybrid spatio-temporal multitask architectures can substantially improve both the forecast accuracy and robustness to extremes, making HST–MB–CREH a promising building block for intelligent decision-support tools in smart grids with a high share of PV generation.

Short-term forecasting of solar and wind power generation is critical for smart grid management but challenging due to non-stationarity and extreme generation events. This study addresses a multi-task learning problem: regression-based forecasting of power output and binary detection of extreme events defined by a quantile-based threshold (q = 0.90). A hybrid spatio-temporal model, DP-STH++, is proposed, implementing parallel causal fusion of LSTM, GRU, a causal Conv1D stack, and a lightweight causal transformer. The architecture employs regression and classification heads, while an uncertainty-weighted mechanism stabilizes multitask optimization in the regression tasks; extreme event detection performance is evaluated using AUC. Training and evaluation follow a leakage-safe protocol with chronological data processing, calendar feature integration, time-aware splitting, and training-only estimation of scaling parameters and extreme thresholds. Experimental results obtained with a one-hour forecasting horizon and a 24 h context window demonstrate that DP-STH++ achieves the best regression performance on the hold-out set (RMSE = 257.18, MAE = 174.86–287.90, MASE = 0.2438, R² = 0.9440) and the highest extreme event detection accuracy (AUC = 0.9896), ranking 1st among all compared architectures. In time-series cross-validation, the model retains the leading position with a mean MASE = 0.3883 and AUC = 0.9709. The advantages are particularly pronounced for wind power forecasting, where DP-STH++ simultaneously minimizes regression errors and maximizes AUC = 0.9880–0.9908.

Digital mathematics platforms support probabilistic prediction of subsequent student responses, but temporal ordering, score comparability and calibration affect the validity of evaluation. We evaluated AdaptiveMath-AI on a deterministic cohort of 385,037 Eedi interactions from 2904 students. Early representations were frozen before supervised fitting; learner states were reconstructed in recorded completion order, with simultaneous events predicted before batch updates. Twenty-two numerical inputs supported a gradient-boosting anchor, regularized item corrections, valid curriculum fallback and separately selected calibration. Six monthly expanding-window evaluations, repeated across ten seeds, covered 143,565 responses. The primary estimand averaged within-month performance differences rather than ranking scores from different fitted windows together. Mean monthly ROC-AUC was 0.761173 for AdaptiveMath-AI and 0.756833 for the 100-iteration comparator; the paired difference was 0.004339 (95% conditional student-cluster interval, 0.003636–0.005131). Mean monthly log loss and Brier score were 0.544721 and 0.184383. Independently calibrated ablations supported the contribution of question correction but not an additional hierarchy benefit. Against a recency-matched question-rate control, question-only residual correction improved ROC-AUC by 0.000628 (0.000304–0.000928). Calibration superiority was not uniform. The contribution is a temporally explicit, reproducible evaluation of item adaptation, not a new foundational architecture. Missing presentation timestamps and the previously studied single-platform source limit prospective, external and educational-utility claims.