While previous study has confirmed significant correlation between infrastructure construction and air quality, little is known about the nature of the relationship. In this paper, we intend to fill this gap by using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model to discuss the nonlinear relationship between transportation infrastructure construction and air quality. The panel data includes 280 cities in China for the period 2000-2017. We find that the transportation infrastructure investment is positively correlated to the air quality when the GDP per capita is below RMB 7151 or the number of motor vehicle population per capita is below 37 (vehicles per 10,000 persons) where the model is in the lower regime, and that the transportation infrastructure investment is negatively correlated to the air quality when the GDP per capita is greater than RMB 7151 or the number of motor vehicle population per capita is larger than 37 (vehicles per 10,000 persons) where the model is in the upper regime. The empirical results of the three sub-samples, including eastern, western and central regions, are similar to that of the national level. Furthermore, increasing transportation infrastructure investment is conducive to improving air quality. Urban bus services, green area, population density, wind speed and rainfall are also conducive to reducing air pollution, but the role of environmental regulation is not significant. After adding the instrumental variable (urban built-up area), the conclusions are further supported. Finally, relevant policy recommendations for reducing air pollution are proposed based on the empirical results.

In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel) consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight) in aggregate (TPA, TFA), and civilian vehicle number (CVN) and explained variables of petrol and diesel consumption. Furthermore, we forecast the future consumer demand for oil products during “The 12th Five Year Plan” (2011–2015) based on the historical data covering from 1985 to 2009, finding that urbanization is the most sensitive factor, with a strong marginal effect on petrol and diesel consumption in this sector. From the viewpoint of prediction interval value, urbanization expresses the lower limit of the predicted results, and CVN the upper limit of the predicted results. Predicted value from other independent variables is in the range of predicted values which display a validation range and reference standard being much more credible for policy makers. Finally, a comparison between the predicted results from autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) and others is made to assess our task.