Introduction: This study delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) in a Metropolitan area over three decades (1991–2021) and extends its scope to forecast future scenarios from 2031 to 2051. The intent is to aid sustainable land management and urban planning by enabling precise predictions of urban growth, leveraging the integration of remote sensing, GIS data, and observations from Landsat satellites 5, 7, and 8.Methods: The research employed a machine learning-based approach, specifically utilizing the random forest (RF) algorithm, for LULC classification. Advanced modeling techniques, including CA–Markov chains and the Land Change Modeler (LCM), were harnessed to project future LULC alterations, which facilitated the development of transition probability matrices among different LULC classes.Results: The investigation uncovered significant shifts in LULC, influenced largely by socio-economic factors. Notably, vegetation cover decreased substantially from 49.21% to 25.81%, while forest cover saw an increase from 31.89% to 40.05%. Urban areas expanded significantly, from 7.55% to 25.59% of the total area, translating into an increase from 76.31 km² in 1991 to 258.61 km² in 2021. Forest area also expanded from 322.25 km² to 409.21 km². Projections indicate a further decline in vegetation cover and an increase in built-up areas to 371.44 km² by 2051, with a decrease in forest cover compared to its 2021 levels. The predictive accuracy of the model was confirmed with an overall accuracy exceeding 90% and a kappa coefficient around 0.88.Discussion: The findings underscore the model’s reliability and provide a significant theoretical framework that integrates socio-economic development with environmental conservation. The results emphasize the need for a balanced approach towards urban growth in the Islamabad metropolitan area, underlining the essential equilibrium between development and conservation for future urban planning and management. This study underscores the importance of using advanced predictive models in guiding sustainable urban development strategies.

LULCC is a major driver of habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, and declining landscape connectivity, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions. Although Islamabad has experienced substantial urban expansion and forest-cover change, long-term city-scale assessments linking land-cover dynamics with landscape connectivity remain limited. This study examined spatiotemporal LULCC in Islamabad from 1991 to 2021 and assessed whether recent forest recovery improved landscape structural connectivity. Landsat images acquired in 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were classified into five land-cover categories: water, forest, built-up area, bare land, and agricultural land. Classification was performed using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Landscape composition and spatial configuration were quantified using FRAGSTATS 4.3, while forest fragmentation was evaluated using the Landscape Fragmentation Tool v2.0 (LFT) with a 100 m edge threshold. The classifications achieved overall accuracies above 90%, with Kappa coefficients (K) greater than 0.85. Built-up area increased from 76.31 km², representing 7.55% of the study area, in 1991, to 258.62 km², or 25.60%, in 2021, demonstrating rapid urban expansion and associated habitat conversion. Forest cover increased to 340.86 km² in 2001, declined to 271.96 km² in 2011, and subsequently recovered to 409.22 km² in 2021. Despite this increase in forest extent, fragmentation metrics indicated persistent spatial subdivision and limited structural connectivity. High patch density (PD), reduced landscape aggregation, and changes in the largest patch index (LPI) indicated persistent spatial subdivision and limited habitat continuity. These findings highlight the value of integrating RF-based land-cover classification, multitemporal remote sensing, and landscape metrics for urban environmental monitoring. The findings suggest that future land-use planning should consider landscape connectivity, protection of existing forest patches, and spatially coordinated restoration alongside continued reforestation.