The pharmaceutical industry's performance in the global economy has been affected by the growing competition associated with globalization, economic liberalization, and the traderelated aspect of the intellectual property rights (TRIPS) agreement. To maintain performance, organizations need to consider strategic foresight (SF) and organizational resilience (OR) to anticipate future trends and survive crises. By proposing a conceptual framework, this study examines the relationship between organizational resilience, strategic foresight, competitive advantage (CA), and firm performance (FP). A conceptual framework was developed to assess the hypotheses in the pharmaceutical industry. Then, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was applied to investigate the relationships quantitatively. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) based on the data generated from 202 completed questionnaires by the pharmaceutical companies in Iran demonstrate that OR, SF, and CA have significant positive impacts on FP. Moreover, CA partially mediates the relationship between OR and FP and also between SF and FP. The findings of this study enrich the existing literature by demonstrating that early detection of environmental change and resilient manner assist Iranian pharmaceutical firms to survive if joining the WTO. This is the first study that examines the direct and indirect effect of OR and SF on the FP, considering the mediating impact of CA. This investigation attempts to address the mechanisms through which OR and SF affect organizational performance, especially in the pharmaceutical industry.

Background: Drug shortage is a significant public health problem, especially for drugs related to life threatening conditions. Almost all countries affected by variety of supply problems and spent a considerable amount of time and resources responding to shortage. The aim of present study is to determine and prioritize strategies to achieve best solutions for these considerable healthcare system challenges and to evaluate this strategies base on practical criteria. Methods: To achieve the study objectives, the research was conducted in two phases. Determining of the strategies to control drug shortage, and comprehensive assessments of priority of possible strategies. For each phase, a self-design questionnaire was developed. The five main managerial strategies dimensions including: regulatory, financial, supply chain, information system and policy-making were set out. Forty-five alternatives were elicited from literature, and were evaluated and trimmed to 37 strategies based on experts’ opinion. The Multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods were applied in second phase. Five important criteria including cost, time, labor, compliance with law and culture were weighed by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. Then, 37 alternatives have been rated base on the five criteria on the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) technique. Results: “Creating integrated Supply chain information system to manage medicines inventory in the country”, “Creating and using the databases to predict the shortage of medicines”, “Using track and trace system” are alternatives 20th, 24th and 25th, which related to supply chain (SC) and information system (IS) dimensions have higher priority in the experts’ point of view. The results show IS dimension has 100 percentage of priority; following that policy and supply chain have higher priority, respectively. Conclusion: Health systems rely on consistent supplying of pharmaceuticals to support patient care. The results show that information system, policy-making and supply chain are in the top-ranking priorities. Warning system needs to be improved to the advance system via better collaboration with stakeholders, publish precise and explicit national guidelines for drug shortage management, enforce the guidelines, and improve Iran FDA’s pharmaceutical market control capability.

Background: Irrational use of antibiotics is proving to be a major concern to the health systems globally. This results in antibiotics resistance and increases health care costs. In Iran, despite many years of research, appreciable efforts, and policymaking to avoid irrational use of antibiotics, yet indicators show suboptimal use of antibiotics, pointing to an urgent need for adopting alternative approaches to further understand the problem and to offer new solutions. Applying the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory, to explore and research health systems and their challenges has become popular. Therefore, this study aimed to better understand the complexity of the irrational use of antibiotics in Iran and to propose potential solutions.Method: This research utilized a CAS observatory tool to qualitatively collect and analyse data. Twenty interviews and two Focus Group discussions were conducted. The data was enriched with policy document reviews to fully understand the system. MAXQDA software was used to organize and analyze the data.Result: We could identify several diverse and heterogeneous, yet highly interdependent agents operating at different levels in the antibiotics use system in Iran. The network structure and its adaptive emergent behavior, information flow, governing rules, feedback and values of the system, and the way they interact were identified. The findings described antibiotics use as emergent behavior that is formed by an interplay of many factors and agents over time. According to this study, insufficient and ineffective interaction and information flow regarding antibiotics between agents are among key causes of irrational antibiotics use in Iran. Results showed that effective rules to minimize irrational use of antibiotics are missing or can be easily disobeyed. The gaps and weaknesses of the system which need redesigning or modification were recognized as well.Conclusion: The study suggests re-engineering the system by implementing several system-level changes including establishing strong, timely, and effective interactions between identified stakeholders, which facilitate information flow and provision of on-time feedback, and create win-win rules in a participatory manner with stakeholders and the distributed control system.

Aim: This study estimated the GDP share of pharmaceuticals in Iran based on the drivers of pharmaceutical expenditure and compared it with that of 31 members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Subject and methods: The factors contributing to pharmaceutical expenditure were identified through literature review and studied by 8 experts to classify the factors. Then, using the panel data method, a model was built to estimate the GDP share of pharmaceutical expenditure based on the extracted factors of the selected countries in Iran’s model. To explain the observed differences, several regression analyses were performed based on cross-sectional data. The analyses were performed using EVIEWS software, version 10. Results: The explanatory variables for the selected countries in the panel model (R² = 0.98) were specified. Government health expenditure (β = 0.1432), the share of generic drugs (β = − 0.0143), gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (β = − 0.0058) and the rate of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) (β = 0.0028) contributed most to pharmaceutical expenditure. In comparison, in the Iranian estimation model (R² = 0.84), government health expenditure (β = 0.0536) and the share of generic drugs (β = 0.0369) had a significant impact on pharmaceutical expenditure. In the estimation model with more estimators for Iran (R² = 0.99), government health expenditure (β = 0.1694), disease prevalence (β = 0.0537), the share of generic drugs (β = 0.0102), the DALY rate (β = 0.0039), GDP per capita (β = − 0.0033), and the drug price index (β = 0.0007) contribute most to pharmaceutical expenditure. Conclusion: In the models of the study, factors related to the structure of the healthcare system and the pharmaceutical system contributed most to pharmaceutical expenditure as a share of GDP. Moreover, disease profiles show its predictive role in the second model for Iran.

Background: The present study aimed to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model to assist policymakers in identifying and prioritizing allocation indicators, which are being used or should be used to distribute drugs in short supply among different provinces. Methods: The model encompasses the interactions between various indicators and efficiency, equity, and effectiveness paradigms. Accordingly, a set of clusters and elements, which were associated with the allocation of drugs in short supply in Iran’s pharmaceutical system, were detected to develop the model and were then compared in pairs in terms of a specified factor to show the priorities. Results: Equity had the highest priority (0.459) following by Efficiency (0.37), and Effectiveness (0.171). The 4 most important allocation indicator were “number of prescriptions” (0.26) and “total bed occupancy rate” (0.19) related to equity, “total population” (0.21) in efficiency and “the burden of rare and incurable disease” (0.07) in effectiveness paradigm. Conclusions: The capability to overcome inefficient resource allocation patterns caused by both oversupply and undersupply derived from historic resource allocation may be highly limited in the absence of the need indicators. The quality of the decision is related to a careful balancing act of the three paradigms which represents roughly the triple aim of public healthcare systems: clinical improvement (effectiveness), population health improvement (equity and access), and reducing cost (economic aspects -efficiency).