The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has the largest areas of permafrost terrain in the mid- and low-latitude regions of the world. Some permafrost distribution maps have been compiled but, due to limited data sources, ambiguous criteria, inadequate validation, and deficiency of high-quality spatial data sets, there is high uncertainty in the mapping of the permafrost distribution on the TP. We generated a new permafrost map based on freezing and thawing indices from modified Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperatures (LSTs) and validated this map using various ground-based data sets. The soil thermal properties of five soil types across the TP were estimated according to an empirical equation and soil properties (moisture content and bulk density). The temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model was applied to simulate the permafrost distribution. Permafrost, seasonally frozen ground, and unfrozen ground covered areas of 1.06 × 10⁶ km² (0.97–1.15 × 10⁶ km², 90 % confidence interval) (40 %), 1.46 × 10⁶ (56 %), and 0.03 × 10⁶ km² (1 %), respectively, excluding glaciers and lakes. Ground-based observations of the permafrost distribution across the five investigated regions (IRs, located in the transition zones of the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground) and three highway transects (across the entire permafrost regions from north to south) were used to validate the model. Validation results showed that the kappa coefficient varied from 0.38 to 0.78 with a mean of 0.57 for the five IRs and 0.62 to 0.74 with a mean of 0.68 within the three transects. Compared with earlier studies, the TTOP modelling results show greater accuracy. The results provide more detailed information on the permafrost distribution and basic data for use in future research on the Tibetan Plateau permafrost.

Permafrost in Central Asian is present in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China, the Tien Shan Mountain regions in China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the Pamirs in Tajikistan, and in Mongolia. Monitoring of the ground thermal regime in these regions over the past several decades has shown that the permafrost has been undergoing significant changes caused by climate warming and increasing human activities. During the International Polar Year, measured mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at a depth of 6 m ranged from −3.2°C to 0.2°C on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the active‐layer thickness (ALT) varied between 105 and 322 cm at different sites. Ground temperatures at the bottom of the active layer (TTOP) warmed on average by 0.06°C yr⁻¹ over the past decade. In Mongolia, MAGT at 10–15 m depth increased by up to 0.02–0.03°C yr⁻¹ in the Hovsgol Mountain region, but by 0.01–0.02°C yr⁻¹ in the Hangai and Hentei Mountain regions. The increase in permafrost temperatures in the northern Tien Shan from 1974 to 2009 ranged from 0.3°C to 0.6°C. At present measured permafrost temperatures vary from −0.5°C to −0.1°C. The ALT increased from 3.2 to 4 m in the 1970s to a maximum of 5.2 m between 1995 and 2009. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Permafrost has great influences on the climatic, hydrological, and ecological systems on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The changing permafrost and its impact have been attracting great attention worldwide like never before. More observational and modeling approaches are needed to promote an understanding of permafrost thermal state and climatic conditions on the QTP. However, limited data on the permafrost thermal state and climate background have been sporadically reported in different pieces of literature due to the difficulties of accessing and working in this region where the weather is severe, environmental conditions are harsh, and the topographic and morphological features are complex. From the 1990s, we began to establish a permafrost monitoring network on the QTP. Meteorological variables were measured by automatic meteorological systems. The soil temperature and moisture data were collected from an integrated observation system in the active layer. Deep ground temperature (GT) was observed from boreholes. In this study, a comprehensive dataset consisting of long-term meteorological, GT, soil moisture, and soil temperature data was compiled after quality control from an integrated, distributed, and multiscale observation network in the permafrost regions of QTP. The dataset is helpful for scientists with multiple study fields (i.e., climate, cryospheric, ecology and hydrology, meteorology science), which will significantly promote the verification, development, and improvement of hydrological models, land surface process models, and climate models on the QTP. The datasets are available from the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/disallow/789e838e-16ac-4539-bb7e-906217305a1d/, last access: 24 August 2021, https://doi.org/10.11888/Geocry.tpdc.271107, Lin et al., 2021).

Using monitored active layer thickness (ALT) and environmental variables of 10 observation fields along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a model for ALT estimation was developed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the ALT were also analyzed. The results showed that in the past 30 years ALT in the study region increased at a rate of 1.33 cm a⁻¹. Temperatures at the upper limit of permafrost and at 50 cm depth, along with soil cumulative temperature at 5 cm depth also exhibited a rising trend. Soil heat flux increased at a rate of 0.1 W m⁻² a⁻¹. All the above changes demonstrated that the degradation of permafrost happened in the study region on the QTP. The initial thawing date of active layer was advanced, while the initial freezing date was delayed. The number of thawing days increased to a rate of 1.18 d a⁻¹. The variations of active layer were closely related to the permafrost type, altitude, underlying surface type and soil composition. The variations were more evident in cold permafrost region than in warm permafrost region, in high-altitude region than in low-altitude region, in alpine meadow region than in alpine steppe region; and in fine-grained soil region than in coarse-grained soil region.

Global warming has led to permafrost degradation worldwide. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) hosts most of the world's alpine permafrost, yet its impending changes remain largely unclear, thereby affecting regional hydrological and ecological processes and the global carbon budget. By employing a land surface model adapted to simulate frozen ground, and using state‐of‐the‐art multi‐model and multi‐scenario data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, changes in permafrost distribution and its thermal regimes on the QTP are systematically predicted under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Projections for SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 show that most of the continuous permafrost region of the QTP will persist through 2050. Much of the permafrost is likely to degrade in the late 21st century, with projected area losses of 44 ± 4%, 59 ± 5%, and 71 ± 7%, respectively, by 2100. In particular, the Three Rivers Source region in the central eastern part of the QTP is a key area of permafrost degradation, where permafrost is most vulnerable and degradation occurs earliest. The mean annual ground temperature of QTP permafrost will increase by 0.8 ± 0.2°C, 2.0 ± 0.3°C, and 2.6 ± 0.3°C under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively, and the active layer thickness will increase by 0.7 ± 0.1 m, 1.5 ± 0.3 m, and 3.0 ± 1.0 m, respectively. The surviving permafrost under SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5 will be thermally unstable, which is a clear warning sign of complete disappearance. The analysis of permafrost sensitivity to climate change signifies that alpine permafrost on the QTP has low resilience to climate change, in contrast to permafrost in pan‐Artic high latitudes.