Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Approximately 10% of ischemic strokes are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) first diagnosed at the time of stroke. Detecting asymptomatic AF would provide an opportunity to prevent these strokes by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. The AF-SCREEN international collaboration was formed in September 2015 to promote discussion and research about AF screening as a strategy to reduce stroke and death and to provide advocacy for implementation of country-specific AF screening programs. During 2016, 60 expert members of AF-SCREEN, including physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, health economists, and patient advocates, were invited to prepare sections of a draft document. In August 2016, 51 members met in Rome to discuss the draft document and consider the key points arising from it using a Delphi process. These key points emphasize that screen-detected AF found at a single timepoint or by intermittent ECG recordings over 2 weeks is not a benign condition and, with additional stroke factors, carries sufficient risk of stroke to justify consideration of anticoagulation. With regard to the methods of mass screening, handheld ECG devices have the advantage of providing a verifiable ECG trace that guidelines require for AF diagnosis and would therefore be preferred as screening tools. Certain patient groups, such as those with recent embolic stroke of uncertain source (ESUS), require more intensive monitoring for AF. Settings for screening include various venues in both the community and the clinic, but they must be linked to a pathway for appropriate diagnosis and management for screening to be effective. It is recognized that health resources vary widely between countries and health systems, so the setting for AF screening should be both country- and health system-specific. Based on current knowledge, this white paper provides a strong case for AF screening now while recognizing that large randomized outcomes studies would be helpful to strengthen the evidence base.

Potential benefits of precision medicine in cardiovascular disease (CVD) include more accurate phenotyping of individual patients with the same condition or presentation, using multiple clinical, imaging, molecular and other variables to guide diagnosis and treatment. An approach to realising this potential is the digital twin concept, whereby a virtual representation of a patient is constructed and receives real-time updates of a range of data variables in order to predict disease and optimise treatment selection for the real-life patient. We explored the term digital twin, its defining concepts, the challenges as an emerging field, and potentially important applications in CVD. A mapping review was undertaken using a systematic search of peer-reviewed literature. Industry-based participants and patent applications were identified through web-based sources. Searches of Compendex, EMBASE, Medline, ProQuest and Scopus databases yielded 88 papers related to cardiovascular conditions (28%, n = 25), non-cardiovascular conditions (41%, n = 36), and general aspects of the health digital twin (31%, n = 27). Fifteen companies with a commercial interest in health digital twin or simulation modelling had products focused on CVD. The patent search identified 18 applications from 11 applicants, of which 73% were companies and 27% were universities. Three applicants had cardiac-related inventions. For CVD, digital twin research within industry and academia is recent, interdisciplinary, and established globally. Overall, the applications were numerical simulation models, although precursor models exist for the real-time cyber-physical system characteristic of a true digital twin. Implementation challenges include ethical constraints and clinical barriers to the adoption of decision tools derived from artificial intelligence systems.

Accurate documentation of injury incidence is critical for study of injury risk factors and prevention. Comparisons of published incidences of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries and surgical reconstructions are difficult, however, because of the variations in units. Some studies report absolute time-based denominators (such as annual incidence or incidence per 100,000 person years), whereas others report exposure-based denominators (such as incidence per 1,000 player hours or athlete exposures). We converted exposure-based units into annual incidences to compare various studies. National population studies show annual incidence rates of up to 0.05% per person per year in Australia. Professional athletes in basketball, soccer, and the other football codes report an annual incidence of 0.15%-3.7% in studies with at least a moderate sample size. Annual ACL incidence in amateur sporting groups was generally higher than the entire population but lower than among professional athletes. Converting incidence rates to annual units allowed better comparisons to be made between population rates across different studies.

The study was part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study and aimed to quantify the burden arising from low back pain (LBP) due to occupational exposure to ergonomic risk factors. Exposure prevalence was based on occupation distribution; estimates of relative risk came from a meta-analysis of relevant published literature. The work-related burden was estimated as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Estimates were made for each of 21 world regions and 187 countries, separately for 1990 and 2010 using consistent methods. Worldwide, LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work was estimated to cause 21.7 million DALYs in 2010. The overall population attributable fraction was 26%, varying considerably with age, sex and region. 62% of LBP DALYs were in males-the largest numbers were in persons aged 35-55 years. The highest relative risk (3.7) was in the agricultural sector. The largest number of DALYs occurred in East Asia and South Asia, but on a per capita basis the biggest burden was in Oceania. There was a 22% increase in overall LBP DALYs arising from occupational exposures between 1990 and 2010 due to population growth; rates dropped by 14% over the same period. LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work is an important cause of disability. There is a need for improved information on exposure distributions and relative risks, particularly in developing countries.

Background: Injuries are common in all professional football codes (including soccer, rugby league and union, American football, Gaelic football, and Australian football). Purpose: To report the epidemiology of injuries in the Australian Football League (AFL) from 1992-2012 and to identify changes in injury patterns during that period. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: The AFL commenced surveying injuries in 1992, with all teams and players included since 1996. An injury was defined as “any physical or medical condition that causes a player to miss a match in the regular season or finals (playoffs).” Administrative records of injury payments (which are compulsory as part of salary cap compliance) to players who do not play matches determined the occurrence of an injury. The seasonal incidence was measured in units of new injuries per club (of 40 players) per season (of 22 matches). Results: There were 4492 players listed over the 21-year period who suffered 13,606 new injuries/illnesses and 1965 recurrent injuries/illnesses, which caused 51,919 matches to be missed. The lowest seasonal incidence was 30.3 new injuries per club per season recorded in 1993, and the highest was 40.3 recorded in 1998. The injury prevalence (missed matches through injury per club per season) varied from a low of 116.3 in 1994 to a high of 157.1 in 2011. The recurrence rate of injuries was highest at 25% in 1992 and lowest at 9% in 2012 and has steadily fallen across the 21 years (P < .01). The most frequent and prevalent injury was hamstring strain (average of 6 injuries per club per season, resulting in 20 missed matches per club per season; recurrence rate, 26%), although the rate of hamstring injuries has fallen in the past 2 seasons after a change to the structure of the interchange bench (P < .05). The rate of knee posterior cruciate ligament injuries fell in the years after a rule change to prevent knee-to-knee collisions in ruckmen (P < .01). Conclusion: Annual public reporting (by way of media release and reports available freely online) of injury rates, using units easily understood by laypeople, has been well received. It has also paved the way for rule changes with the primary goal of improving player safety.