Monitoring progress towards energy-efficiency goals such as Sustainable Development Goal Target 7.3 requires distinguishing lower energy use per unit of output from lower production. This study examines China’s 2021 mid-year warnings on provincial progress towards targets for total energy consumption and energy intensity using monthly output of nine industrial products and annual energy and economic data for 30 provinces. A warning score combines red, orange, and green ratings on both targets. A triple-difference model compares output of energy-intensive and less energy-intensive products relative to pre-warning trends, and an annual fixed-effects model decomposes energy intensity into energy consumption and real GDP. After adjustment for pre-warning trends, higher scores are associated with slower relative output growth of energy-intensive products; without this adjustment the estimate is near zero, consistent with the faster pre-warning expansion of these products in high-score provinces. Higher scores are also associated with a relative rise in regional energy intensity, mainly reflecting faster energy consumption growth; this holds under alternative score codings and energy data checks, but weakens with province-specific trends. These conditional associations suggest that slower growth of energy-intensive output does not by itself indicate improved energy efficiency; thus, monitoring should track energy consumption, real GDP, and key products together.