This study develops a MATLAB-based (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA; version R2024b) first-order probabilistic screening framework for the Shenhu gas hydrate production area, northern South China Sea, to separate the roles of bottom-water warming, geothermal and fluid perturbation, hydrate saturation, excess pore pressure, and slope geometry. The framework integrates methane hydrate phase equilibrium, geothermal profiles, transient heat diffusion, base of gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ) migration, conceptual reservoir phase layering, and infinite-slope factor-of-safety (FoS) analysis. The modeled present-day BGHSZ (~271 mbsf) is broadly consistent with reported bottom-simulating-reflector depths. At the baseline thermal diffusivity, conductive potential dissociation thickness stays below 4 m even for +3.0 °C over 1000 years; across the full tested diffusivity–warming–time matrix it ranges 0–19.5 m; geological tests, reported as equilibrium BGHSZ offsets, give larger responses. Monte Carlo analysis under three parallel slope-angle assumptions shows that absolute FoS depends strongly on the slope distribution. Conductive warming reduces the median FoS by about 5.5%, with about 9% of realizations exceeding a 10% reduction, yet low-FoS outcomes remain absent within the tested ranges. Within the adopted parameterization, modeled FoS variability is controlled primarily by slope angle, friction angle, and the prescribed excess pore-pressure ratio, while conductive thermal forcing produces a comparatively modest reduction in relative stability margin.

Atypical bottom-simulating reflector (BSR)-like responses in structurally complex gas-hydrate provinces are difficult to interpret using morphology alone. This review develops a literature-constrained, physics-guided framework that organizes such responses in the northern South China Sea along three descriptive axes—continuity, geometry/deformation, and multiplicity—retaining six commonly reported end-member expressions as non-mutually exclusive working types. Published observations from the Shenhu area and the Qiongdongnan Basin are examined using a first-order thermo-seismic workflow comprising hydrate phase-equilibrium modeling, acoustic-impedance analysis, and convolutional synthetic seismic modeling. Over the reported GMGS3 drilling-water-depth range and measured geothermal gradients, the model predicts BSR depths of approximately 146–308 mbsf, overlapping the reported 230–400 mbsf interval. At W19, the observed BSR falls within this envelope; at SH-W07-2016, inverse calculations match the shallower interface with a measured-range gradient, while the deeper one requires cooler conditions. An illustrative impedance calculation yields a hydrate-to-gas reflection coefficient of approximately −0.25, consistent with the negative polarity of typical BSRs. The framework supports the interpretation of ambiguous BSR-like responses by testing their physical admissibility, identifying competing geological explanations that a single morphology cannot exclude, and indicating what further seismic or drilling evidence would be needed to discriminate among them; it does not validate morphology–mechanism assignments.

The safe production of natural gas in reservoir highly depends upon sealing capacity of the conventional and hydrate-bearing caps, with breakthrough pressure serving as the primary evaluation indicator. This study first systematically summarizes the basic principles, procedures, and applicable conditions of five traditional and auxiliary methods for testing conventional caps, namely mercury intrusion porosimetry, the pulse method, the stepwise pressurization method, the continuous injection method, and the displacement method. Building on this foundational understanding, the study then delves into an in-depth analysis of the limitations inherent to these methods when they are applied to hydrate-bearing caps, as well as potential strategies for their improvement. Upon thorough comparative analysis, this study highlights that the stepwise pressurization method, continuous pressurization method, and the pulse method are the potential techniques for determining the breakthrough pressure measurement of hydrate-bearing caps, provided that improvements are made in specimen preparation, temperature-pressure and stress state control. The suitability of these methods depends upon factors such as hydrate saturation and experimental conditions. Finally, this review summarizes current research progress and key challenges in this field. It is proposed that the development of full-process in-situ pressure-core testing systems, the establishment of unified criteria for breakthrough and loading path, and studies on cyclic breakthrough self-healing behavior are crucial steps for transitioning this research from laboratory settings to practical engineering applications.