Regional development changes built surfaces, nighttime activity and vegetation, making their spatial correspondence important for land monitoring. Regional averages can obscure whether these changes occur together locally. This exploratory study examined that correspondence in Qinghai using annual satellite observations, climate, terrain and historical management footprints. Observed and partially pooled trajectories characterised 2017–2023 development on a 5 km grid; direct climate-adjusted fixed-effects models and geographically cross-fitted anomalies evaluated vegetation associations, while historical exposure comparisons described protected and mining landscapes. Regional built cover and nighttime light increased, yet observed local co-growth occupied 17.5% of active cells and 39.6% of strong-signal cells. The primary same-year built–NDVI association was approximately 0.0006 NDVI units per fixed reference increment at zero activity change, close to its conditional statistical detection threshold; its ecological importance remains unestablished. Alternative built transformations retained positive estimates, while lead-adjusted fits showed sensitivity to temporal specification. Sanjiangyuan’s positive NDVI-anomaly contrast accompanied prior divergence and raw-NDVI, EVI-anomaly and light intervals spanning zero, leaving its hypothesised outcome combination inconclusive. Muli combined greening with declining light in retained mining cells that were greener and less disturbed than excluded cells. These findings locate regional growth within concentrated local development and distinguish vegetation–activity patterns across managed landscapes, providing a spatial basis for targeted land-use and restoration field checks.

Carbon and water systems exhibit complex synergies and trade-offs and are closely interconnected through the social water cycle. This study examines eight prefecture-level regions in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2024. A comprehensive carbon–water evaluation system and coupling coordination degree (CCD) model were used to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon–water coupling coordination, while CatBoost-SHAP was applied to identify the main factors associated with coordination across water withdrawal, use, and discharge processes. The results show that: (1) the carbon–water CCD exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend, with the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon subsystem generally higher than that of the water resources subsystem; (2) coordination showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity, characterized by relative stability in high-level regions and gradual improvement in low-level regions; and (3) water resource use within the social water cycle was closely associated with carbon–water coupling coordination, with indicators related to agriculture, the forestry–animal husbandry–fishery sector, and water supply showing relatively high model importance. Accordingly, carbon–water synergistic management should improve water use efficiency in production sectors, strengthen matching between water supply and end-use demand, and implement differentiated management according to regional resource endowments, ecological functions, and socioeconomic development levels.