Türkiye holds the world's largest natural stands of Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) and extensive Crimean juniper forest (Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb.), together 884,361 ha of closed, drought-exposed forest. Both assimilate at needle water potentials near −3.0 MPa, yet lose some of their potential assimilation to photorespiration and stomatal closure under water deficit. A literature-parameterized scenario model relaxes both constraints against a radiation-limited ceiling. Zonal photorespiratory and stomatal input fractions of potential gross primary production (GPP) are 8%–16% and 14%–28%; after coupling, the model removes 13%–23% and 12%–23%. Together, these reduce weighted-mean net primary productivity from 3.29 to 2.14 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, a 34.9% reduction in potential GPP (Monte Carlo interval 31.7%–37.3%, conditional on the elicitation). Of that loss, 37%–45% is obligate photorespiration beyond management reach, depending on how the jointly caused interaction is assigned; the obligate share falls along the aridity gradient. Whether the loss becomes forgone wood is a separate question: radial growth in these species is confined to a narrow climatic window that does not coincide with peak assimilation. Under complete source control, the estate forgoes 1.5 million m³ and 3.7 million Mg CO₂ annually, worth US$ 0.21 billion; under complete sink control, none.

Urban conditions may increase woody-vegetation drought stress, although management and canopy composition can modify urban–peri-urban differences. We compared spectral anomalies of persistent woody canopy in Berlin, Madrid, and Vienna using Harmonized Landsat–Sentinel-2 observations from 2013 to 2024. Seventy urban–peri-urban pairs were matched on elevation, long-term temperature, precipitation, and retained woody area. Of 26 predefined candidate recurrent-drought events, 12 met the 80% observation-support criterion. Outcomes were event medians of within-pair urban-minus-peri-urban anomalies in the two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI). Each index produced seven positive and five negative contrasts; medians were 0.00047 for EVI2 and 0.00065 for NDMI. Event-level models adjusted for city and current drought severity examined antecedent severity and inter-event interval. The standardized predictor coefficients ranged from −0.00225 to 0.00252 in terms of index units. All four heteroskedasticity-consistent 95% confidence intervals included zero. The same pattern emerged in pair-within-event resampling, spatial buffering, and models based on growing-season severity, with every interval crossing zero. As the primary regressions contained 12 events and five fitted terms, there were only seven residual degrees of freedom, resulting in imprecise estimates and low statistical power. Climate antecedents were identifiable for all 26 candidates, and analytical inclusion was determined by vegetation observation support. Across the retained cases, we found neither a consistent urban spectral disadvantage nor a clear relationship between the contrast and drought history. The matched design is reproducible, but the evidence it provides comes from a small sample selected based on observation availability and from dense canopies that persisted throughout the study period. Accordingly, these estimates should not be generalized to whole urban forests or interpreted as measures of physiological response, mortality, or canopy loss.