This study examines the temporal variations and spatial distributions of annual precipitation over Central Asia during the periods of 1901–2013, 1951–2013, and 1979–2013 using the latest version of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis version 7 (GPCC V7) data set. The linear trend and multiperiods of the precipitation over the entire region and plain and mountainous area separately are analysed by linear least square method and ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. An overall increasing trend [0.66 mm (10 years)−1] is found for the entire region during 1901–2013, which is smaller than that of 1951–2013. The regional annual precipitation exhibits multi‐decadal variations, with a sharp decline during 1901–1944, followed by an increase until 1980s, and a fluctuation thereafter. During 1979–2013, the mountainous area shows a greater increasing trend than the entire region. Furthermore, the regional annual precipitation has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐year and 6‐year quasiperiods and a low‐frequency variation with 28‐year quasiperiods. In terms of the spatial distribution, increasing trend in the annual precipitation is found in Xinjiang and decreasing trends appear over the five countries of Central Asia during 1951–2013. Empirical orthogonal function results show that the mountainous area is the large variability centre of the annual precipitation. The dominant mode of interannual variability in Central Asia annual precipitation is related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, which explains about 17% of the interannual variance during 1951–2013. The results of this study describe the long‐term variation in the annual precipitation over Central Asia as well as its relationship with some key climate indices in great detail, which will benefit the understanding and the prediction of the climate variations in this region.
16 December 2018 in International Journal of Climatology
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate system, to reveal the corresponding physical mechanisms, and to project the future climate dynamics among atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice, such as regional climate models and global climate models. A comprehensive assessment of these climate models is important to identify their different overall performances, such as the accuracy of the simulated temperature and precipitation against the observed field. However, until now, the comprehensive performances of these models have not been quantified by a comprehensive index except the existed single statistical index, such as correlation coefficient (r), absolute error (AE), and the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE). To address this issue, therefore, in this study, a new comprehensive index Distance between Indices of Simulation and Observation (DISO) is developed to describe the overall performances of different models against the observed field quantitatively. This new index DISO is a merge of different statistical metrics including r, AE, and RMSE according to the distance between the simulated model and observed field in a three‐dimension space coordinate system. From the relationship between AE, RMSE, and RMS difference (RMSD) (i.e., standard deviation [SD] of bias time series), the new index also has the information of RMSD which is the statistical index in Taylor diagram. An example is applied objectively to display the applications of DISO and Taylor diagram in identifying the overall performances of different simulated models. Overall, with the strong physical characteristic of the distance in three dimensional space and the strict mathematical proof, the new comprehensive index DISO can convey the performances among different models. It can be applied in the comparison between different model data and in tracking changes in their performances.