We analyze the 2019 Chilean social unrest episode, consisting of a sequence of events, through the lens of an epidemic-like model that considers global contagious dynamics. We adjust the parameters to the Chilean social unrest aggregated public data available from the Undersecretary of Human Rights and observe that the number of violent events follows a well-defined pattern already observed in various public disorder episodes in other countries since the 1960s. Although the epidemic-like models display a single event that reaches a peak followed by an exponential decay, we add standard perturbation schemes that may produce a rich temporal behavior as observed in the 2019 Chilean social turmoil. Although we only have access to aggregated data, we are still able to fit it to our model quite well, providing interesting insights on social unrest dynamics.
23 January 2014 in The European Physical Journal Special Topics
The influence of additive noise, multiplicative noise, and higher-order effects on exploding solitons in the framework of the prototype complex cubic-quintic Ginzburg-Landau equation is studied. Transitions from explosions to filling-in to the noisy spatially homogeneous finite amplitude solution, collapse (zero solution), and periodic exploding dissipative solitons are reported.
We investigate the transition to explosive dissipative solitons and the destruction of invariant tori in the complex cubic-quintic Ginzburg-Landau equation in the regime of anomalous linear dispersion as a function of the distance from linear onset. Using Poncaré sections, we sequentially find fixed points, quasiperiodicity (two incommesurate frequencies), frequency locking, two torus-doubling bifurcations (from a torus to a 2-fold torus and from a 2-fold torus to a 4-fold torus), the destruction of a 4-fold torus leading to non-explosive chaos, and finally explosive solitons. A narrow window, in which a 3-fold torus appears, is also observed inside the chaotic region.
We investigate the simultaneous influence of spatially homogeneous multiplicative noise as well as of spatially -correlated additive noise on the formation of localized patterns in the framework of the cubic-quintic complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. Depending on the ratio between the strength of additive and multiplicative noise we find a number of distinctly different types of behavior including explosions, collapse, filling in, and spatio-temporal disorder as well as intermittent behavior of all types listed. Techniques used to analyze the results include snapshots, plots and plots of the spatially and temporally averaged amplitude as a function of the strength of multiplicative noise while keeping the strength of additive noise fixed. Typically 50 realizations are used for averaging to obtain the corresponding data points in these diagrams. For the widths of these distribution as a function of additive noise we obtain a linear decrease in the limit of fairly large, but fixed values of the multiplicative noise. To summarize our findings concisely we show three-dimensional plots of the mean pattern amplitude and the generalized susceptibility as a function of the strengths of additive and multiplicative noise. We critically compare the results of our investigations with those obtained in the two limiting cases of purely additive and of purely multiplicative noise.