Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a−1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a−1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003–2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean. This has major implications for runoff from glaciers and seasonal snow on land. We use a coupled energy balance–subsurface model, forced with downscaled regional climate model fields, and apply it to both glacier-covered and land areas in Svalbard. This generates a long-term (1957–2018) distributed dataset of climatic mass balance (CMB) for the glaciers, snow conditions, and runoff with a 1 km×1 km spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution. Observational data including stake measurements, automatic weather station data, and subsurface data across Svalbard are used for model calibration and validation. We find a weakly positive mean net CMB (+0.09 m w.e. a⁻¹) over the simulation period, which only fractionally compensates for mass loss through calving. Pronounced warming and a small precipitation increase lead to a spatial-mean negative net CMB trend (−0.06 m w.e. a⁻¹ decade⁻¹), and an increase in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) by 17 m decade⁻¹, with the largest changes in southern and central Svalbard. The retreating ELA in turn causes firn air volume to decrease by 4 % decade⁻¹, which in combination with winter warming induces a substantial reduction of refreezing in both glacier-covered and land areas (average −4 % decade⁻¹). A combination of increased melt and reduced refreezing causes glacier runoff (average 34.3 Gt a⁻¹) to double over the simulation period, while discharge from land (average 10.6 Gt a⁻¹) remains nearly unchanged. As a result, the relative contribution of land runoff to total runoff drops from 30 % to 20 % during 1957–2018. Seasonal snow on land and in glacier ablation zones is found to arrive later in autumn (+1.4 d decade⁻¹), while no significant changes occurred on the date of snow disappearance in spring–summer. Altogether, the output of the simulation provides an extensive dataset that may be of use in a wide range of applications ranging from runoff modelling to ecosystem studies.

Since the first estimates of Svalbard-wide glacier mass balance were made in the early 2000s, there has been great progress in remote sensing and modelling of mass balance, existing field records have been extended, field records at new locations have been added, and there has been considerable environmental change. There is a wide spread in the available estimates of both total mass balance and climatic mass balance, but there is overall agreement that the glaciers on Svalbard have been losing mass since the 1960s, with a tendency towards more negative mass balance since 2000. We define criteria to select data that are representative and of high credibility; this subset shows a more coherent evolution and reduced spread. In addition, we combine individual field mass balance records collected by different groups into a single dataset that samples glaciers across Svalbard and a range of different size classes. We find a close relationship between measured glacier mass balance and size of the glacier, in such a way that smaller glaciers experience more negative climatic mass balances. A qualitatively similar relationship between the accumulation area ratio and glacier area is found for all glaciers in the Svalbard, suggesting that the relation derived from glaciological records is not only an artefact caused by the limited number of samples (n=12). We apply this relation to upscale measured climatic mass balance for a new estimate for all glaciers of Svalbard. Our reconciled estimates are for the climatic mass balance -7 ± 2 Gt a-1 (2000-2019) and a total mass balance of -8 ± 6 Gt a-1. From the difference and the related uncertainty, we derive an estimate of frontal ablation amounting to ca. 5-10 Gt a-1. While this is similar to a previous estimate of Svalbard-wide frontal ablation, the uncertainties are large. Furthermore, several large and long-lasting surges have had considerable and multi-year impact on the total mass balance, and in particular on calving rates, emphasizing the need for better-resolved and more frequently updated estimates of frontal ablation.

In this study, we present field measurements and numerical process modeling from western Svalbard showing that the ground surface temperature below the snow is impacted by strong wintertime rain events. During such events, rain water percolates to the bottom of the snow pack, where it freezes and releases latent heat. In the winter season 2005/2006, on the order of 20 to 50% of the wintertime precipitation fell as rain, thus confining the surface temperature to close to 0 °C for several weeks. The measured average ground surface temperature during the snow-covered period is −0.6 °C, despite of a snow surface temperature of on average −8.5 °C. For the considered period, the temperature threshold below which permafrost is sustainable on long timescales is exceeded. We present a simplified model of rain water infiltration in the snow coupled to a transient permafrost model. While small amounts of rain have only minor impact on the ground surface temperature, strong rain events have a long-lasting impact. We show that consecutively applying the conditions encountered in the winter season 2005/2006 results in the formation of an unfrozen zone in the soil after three to five years, depending on the prescribed soil properties. If water infiltration in the snow is disabled in the model, more time is required for the permafrost to reach a similar state of degradation.

In recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure. Ground-ice formation due to winter rain or melting prevents ungulates from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The authors analyze changes in frequency and intensity of winter warming events in the Nordic arctic region—northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, including the arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. This study identifies events in the longest available records of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as in future climate scenarios, and performs analyses of long-term trends for climate indices aimed to capture these individual events. Results show high frequencies of warm weather events during the 1920s–30s and the past 15 years (2000–14), causing weak positive trends over the past 90 years (1924–2014). In contrast, strong positive trends in occurrence and intensity for all climate indices are found for the past 50 years with, for example, increased rates for number of melt days of up to 9.2 days decade−1 for the arctic islands and 3–7 days decade−1 for the arctic mainland. Regional projections for the twenty-first century indicate a significant enhancement of the frequency and intensity of winter warming events. For northern Scandinavia, the simulations indicate a doubling in the number of warming events, compared to 1985–2014, while the projected frequencies for the arctic islands are up to 3 times higher.

Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km² spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km² is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed.