Twenty-two flood-causative factors were nominated based on morphometric, hydrological, soil permeability, terrain distribution, and anthropogenic inferences and further analyzed through the novel hybrid machine learning approach of random forest, support vector machine, gradient boosting, naïve Bayes, and decision tree machine learning (ML) models. A total of 400 flood and nonflood locations acted as target variables of the flood hazard zoning map. All operative factors in this study were tested using variance inflation factor (VIF) values (<5.0) and Boruta feature ranking (<10 ranks) for FHZ maps. The hybrid model along with RF and GBM had sound flood hazard zoning maps for the study area. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve and statistical model matrices such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and gain and lift curve were applied to assess model performance. The 70%:30% sample ratio for training and validation of the standalone models concerning the AUROC value showed sound results for all the ML models, such as RF (97%), SVM (91%), GBM (97%), NB (96%), DT (88%), and hybrid (97%). The gain and lift curve also showed the suitability of the hybrid model along with the RF, GBM, and NB models for developing FHZ maps.
Located in the mid-west of Morocco, the Tensift watershed shelters the Takerkoust dam, which provides a part of the water used for irrigation of the N'fis agricultural area, which is an important irrigated area of the Tensift watershed. This study deals with the impact of droughts on water inflows to the Takerkoust dam and how the water shortage caused by droughts affects agricultural production in the N'Fis area. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to illustrate the temporal evolution of drought periods. The trend observed on data showed that the Tensift watershed experienced a succession of droughts and humid periods of varying intensities. Periods of drought have negatively affected water inflows to the Takerkoust dam, and therefore the amount of water allocated to agricultural irrigation. Years that experienced droughts showed a restriction of more than 50% of water volume planned for irrigation. During periods of water scarcity, farmers reduce or completely avoid irrigation of annual crops to save water for irrigation of perennial crops. The water shortage for irrigation has led in some cases to a drop of up to 100% of the surface allocated to the production of annual crops.
Erosion is the main threat to sustainable water and soil management in Morocco. Located in the Souss-Massa watershed, the rural municipality of El Faid remains an area where gully erosion is a major factor involved in soil degradation and flooding. The aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion at the scale of this municipality and to evaluate the predictive capacity of three prediction methods (frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR), and random forest (RF)) for the characterization of gullying vulnerability. Twelve predisposing factors underlying gully formation were considered and mapped (elevation, slope, aspect, plane curvature, slope length (SL), stream power index (SPI), composite topographic index (CTI), land use, topographic wetness index (TWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), lithology, and vegetation cover (C factor). Furthermore, 894 gullies were digitized using high-resolution imagery. Seventy-five percent of the gullies were randomly selected and used as a training dataset, whereas the remaining 25% were used for validation purposes. The prediction accuracy was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC). Results showed that the factor that most contributed to the prevalence of gullying was topographic (slope, CTI, LS). Furthermore, the fitted models revealed that the RF model had a better prediction quality, with the best AUC (91.49%). The produced maps represent a valuable tool for sustainable management, land conservation, and protecting human lives against natural hazards (floods).