This paper proposes a novel approach, based on convolutional neural network (CNN) models, that forecasts the short-term crude oil futures prices with good performance. In our study, we confirm that artificial intelligence (AI)-based deep-learning approaches can provide more accurate forecasts of short-term oil prices than those of the benchmark Naive Forecast (NF) model. We also provide strong evidence that CNN models with matrix inputs are better at short-term prediction than neural network (NN) models with single-vector input, which indicates that strengthening the dependence of inputs and providing more useful information can improve short-term forecasting performance.

This study develops a systematic framework for assessing a country’s financial vulnerability using a predictive classification model of random forests. We introduce a new indicator that quantifies the potential loss in bank assets and measures a country’s overall vulnerability by aggregating these indicators across the banking sector. We also visualize the degree of vulnerability by creating a Financial Hazard Map that highlights countries and regions with underlying risks in their banking sectors.

As corporate sector stability is crucial for economic resilience and growth, machine learning has become a widely used tool for constructing early warning systems (EWS) to detect financial vulnerabilities more accurately. While most existing EWS research focuses on bankruptcy prediction models, bankruptcy signals often emerge too late and provide limited early-stage insights. This study employs a random forest approach to systematically examine whether a company’s insolvency status can serve as an effective multi-stage financial distress EWS. Additionally, we analyze how the financial characteristics of insolvent companies differ from those of active and bankrupt firms. Our empirical findings indicate that highly accurate insolvency models can be developed to detect status transitions from active to insolvent and from insolvent to bankrupt. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the financial determinants of these transitions differ significantly. The shift from active to insolvent is primarily driven by structural and operational ratios, whereas the transition from insolvent to bankrupt is largely influenced by further financial distress in operational and profitability ratios.

This study analyzes the importance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location dataset (TSE Co-Location dataset) to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of Tokyo stock price index futures. The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is a popular linear regression model used to forecast RV. This study expands the HAR model using the TSE Co-Location dataset, stock full-board dataset and market volume dataset based on the random forest method, which is a popular machine learning algorithm and a nonlinear model. The TSE Co-Location dataset is a new dataset. This is the only information that shows the transaction status of high-frequency traders. In contrast, the stock full-board dataset shows the status of buying and selling dominance. The market volume dataset is used as a proxy for liquidity and is recognized as important information in finance. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to use the TSE co-location dataset. The experimental results show that our model yields a higher forecast out-of-sample accuracy of RV than the HAR model. Moreover, we find that the TSE Co-Location dataset has become more important in recent years, along with the increasing importance of high-frequency trading.

One primary objective of the early warning system literature is to construct more accurate financial vulnerability prediction models and investigate the mechanisms and key factors that differentiate healthy from vulnerable financial states. Despite the importance of identifying and predicting financial vulnerabilities, existing research does not fully explain whether—and how—the financial behavior associated with corporate bankruptcy differs across crises. This study investigates (1) whether the financial mechanisms of corporate bankruptcy differ across three crises—the Global Financial Crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis; (2) whether these crises differ from tranquil periods before the Global Financial Crisis and after the European debt crisis; and (3) how these differences manifest. To conduct this analysis, we introduce a unique framework based on a random forest model, utilizing a corporate bankruptcy dataset spanning 2002–2023. The results show that the bankruptcy mechanisms during the Global Financial Crisis and the European debt crisis are not significantly different, whereas the COVID-19 crisis exhibits distinct characteristics. Additionally, we find that “Credit period days,” “Collection period days,” “Gross margin,” and “Solvency ratio (asset-based)” are key financial factors distinguishing these events.