Summer warming trends in Western Europe are increasing the incidence, intensity and duration of heat waves. They are especially deadly in large cities owing to population density, physical surface properties, anthropogenic heat and pollutants. In August 2003, for 9 consecutive days, the Paris metropolitan area experienced an extreme heat wave that caused 4867 estimated heat‐related deaths. A set of 61 NOAA‐AVHRR (advanced very high‐resolution radiometer) images and one SPOT‐high resolution visible (HRV) image were used to analyse the spatial variations of land surface temperature (LST) over the diurnal cycle during the heat wave. The LST patterns were markedly different between daytime and night‐time. A heat island was centred downtown at night, whereas multiple temperature anomalies were scattered in the industrial suburbs during the day. The heat wave corresponded to elevated nocturnal LST compared to normal summers. The highest mortality ratios matched the spatial distribution of the highest night‐time LSTs, but were not related to the highest daytime LSTs. LSTs were sampled from images at the addresses of 482 elderly people (half were deceased persons and half were control ones) to produce daily and cumulative minimal, maximal and mean thermal indicators, over various periods of time. These indicators were integrated into a conditional logistic regression model to test their use as heat exposure indicators, based on risk factors. Over the period 1–13 August, thermal indicators taking into account minimum nocturnal temperatures averaged over 7 days or over the whole period were significantly linked to mortality. These results show the extent of the spatial variability in urban climate variables and the impact of night‐time temperatures on excess mortality. These results should be used to inform policy and contingency planning in relation to heat waves, and highlight the role that satellite remote sensing can play in documenting and preventing heat‐related mortality. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Summary: Many protected areas are now faced with increasing pressure from visitors and tourism development. There is thus an urgent need for conservation biologists to evaluate the full impact of human disturbance not only on individual responses, but also on the viability of protected populations, so that relevant management measures can be proposed. We studied the impact of tourism on the rare and endangered chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax on a protected French island to assess the relationship between visitor pressure, bird individual behaviour and fitness, and population viability. During 8 years, we monitored foraging behaviour and estimated monthly juvenile survival using mark–recapture data. Population viability was examined under different tourism scenarios, using a stochastic individual‐based model that incorporated the impact of visitor numbers on juvenile survival. In summer, the foraging probability of choughs was negatively correlated with the number of visitors. As a result, the time allocated to foraging during peak tourist season, adjusted to day length and prey availability, was 50% lower than expected. Juvenile survival rates were lowest in August, the peak tourist season, and varied significantly across years. August survival rate and therefore annual survival were negatively correlated with the number of visitors on the island in August and, except for a minor negative effect of rainfall, were not influenced by other environmental variables. Stochastic simulations predicted a low probability of extinction of the protected population if the number of visitors remains constant in the future. However, short‐term viability would be dramatically reduced if the current rate of increase in visitor numbers is maintained. Synthesis and applications. We show that a relatively minor human‐induced disturbance (e.g. scaring individuals away) has dramatic effects on population viability in a protected area, even when breeding individuals are not directly affected. This suggests that the full impact of tourism in protected areas may be overlooked, and has direct consequences for the assessment of sustainable levels of human disturbance and the design of quantitative management options compatible with tourist activities in protected areas. We specifically emphasize the need for more integrative approaches combining research at individual and population levels.

High resolution estimates of bottom towed fishing gears are needed to provide relevant information for natural resource management, impact assessment and maritime spatial planning. The use of satellite-based vessel monitoring system (VMS) data is constrained by data access restrictions as well as rather coarse data resolution. This study focuses on mapping dredge gear fishing grounds using fishing effort estimates at the métier level based on automatic identification system (AIS) data. The performance of the approach was evaluated in terms of correct discrimination between fishing and non-fishing activities for known fishing positions as well as appropriate error propagation. The test was conducted in the Bay of Brest (France) in partnership with a committee of local fishers. The results identified dredge fishing grounds for great scallop (Pecten maximus) in the western part of the Bay of Brest and provided high-resolution information for scientists and local decision makers on the spatial and temporal seasonal variability of fishing effort. The proposed method is semi-automatic and generic making it suitable for other applications.

Assimilée à une forme particulière de prospective, la géoprospective est née de la convergence entre géographie, modélisation et prospective. Son objectif consiste à mieux intégrer, à l'aide de diverses méthodes, le territoire dans le processus d'exploration du futur, allant au-delà d'une simple fonction de support illustratif de ses devenirs possibles. Trois champs de recherche ont contribué à son développement : la modélisation d'accompagnement, la prospective et la modélisation des changements d'occupation et d'utilisation des sols. Cet article présente un rapide état de l'art de la géoprospective et introduit quelques recommandations quant à l'usage des modèles qui la sous-tendent.