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Forests provide multiple services, and in the face of global change adaptive management strategies are needed, which inevitably must be based on models. However, most locally accurate forest models are tied to the stand scale and cannot readily be applied across large areas. Empirical data for model initialisation are often not available at large spatial scales. National Forest Inventories (NFIs) provide spatially representative tree and stand samples, but their samples are typically small, that is, only a few trees are measured per plot, and they are truncated, that is, not each tree has the same probability of being observed. To overcome these issues, we develop and apply a methodology to derive stand descriptions from small sample data, taking the Swiss NFI as a case study. We extended the traditional Weibull function to (multi‐)truncated unimodal and bimodal forms that are suitable for the representation of samples from survey designs with multiple callipering thresholds. Subsequently, we applied these functions in an extended parameter prediction method to derive stand diameter distributions from representative samples. Additionally, we predicted species compositions using a multinomial logistic regression model and assigned them to the diameter distributions of the stands. The diameter distribution of 9.1% of the Swiss NFI samples was better described by a bimodal than a unimodal Weibull function. The uni‐ and bimodal diameter model in combination with the model to determine species composition can be used to predict stand descriptions from single small samples or entire forest types in the target area. Thereby, the bimodal form is suitable for capturing stand structures with distinct under‐ and overstorey. In Switzerland, the diameter distributions of stands are typically positively skewed. Our method can be applied to any large‐scale dataset (e.g. NFI) and allows to generate initial conditions in terms of spatially representative stands. These, in turn, are suitable for forest stand simulators, which allows for developing adaptive forest management strategies at large scales, by simulating realistic and site‐specific stand development while still reflecting detailed management measures. Furthermore, stand descriptions can be used to assess tree species diversity, regeneration and harvest potentials.
Reinhard Mey; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Harald Bugmann; Jürgen Zell. From small forest samples to generalised uni‐ and bimodal stand descriptions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleReinhard Mey, Golo Stadelmann, Esther Thürig, Harald Bugmann, Jürgen Zell. From small forest samples to generalised uni‐ and bimodal stand descriptions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleReinhard Mey; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Harald Bugmann; Jürgen Zell. 2021. "From small forest samples to generalised uni‐ and bimodal stand descriptions." Methods in Ecology and Evolution , no. : 1.
Wood fuel has become central in environmental policy and decision-making processes in cross-sectoral areas. Proper consideration of different types of woody biomass is fundamental in forming energy transition and decarbonization strategies. We quantified the development of theoretical (TPs) and sustainable (SPs) potentials of wood fuel from forests, trees outside forests, wood residues and waste wood in Switzerland for 2020, 2035 and 2050. Ecological and economic restrictions, timber market situations and drivers of future developments (area size, tree growth, wood characteristics, population growth, exporting/importing (waste wood)) were considered. We estimated a SP of wood fuel between 26.5 and 77.8 PJ/a during the three time points. Results demonstrate that the SP of wood fuel could be significantly increased already in the short term. This, as a moderate stock reduction (MSR) strategy in forests, can lead to large surpluses in SPs compared to the wood fuel already used today (~36 PJ/a), with values higher by 51% (+18.2 PJ) in 2020 and by 59% (+21.3 PJ) in 2035. To implement these surpluses (e.g., with a cascade approach), a more circular economy with sufficient processing capacities of the subsequent timber industries and the energy plants to convert the resources is required.
Matthias Erni; Vanessa Burg; Leo Bont; Oliver Thees; Marco Ferretti; Golo Stadelmann; Janine Schweier. Current (2020) and Long-Term (2035 and 2050) Sustainable Potentials of Wood Fuel in Switzerland. Sustainability 2020, 12, 9749 .
AMA StyleMatthias Erni, Vanessa Burg, Leo Bont, Oliver Thees, Marco Ferretti, Golo Stadelmann, Janine Schweier. Current (2020) and Long-Term (2035 and 2050) Sustainable Potentials of Wood Fuel in Switzerland. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (22):9749.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthias Erni; Vanessa Burg; Leo Bont; Oliver Thees; Marco Ferretti; Golo Stadelmann; Janine Schweier. 2020. "Current (2020) and Long-Term (2035 and 2050) Sustainable Potentials of Wood Fuel in Switzerland." Sustainability 12, no. 22: 9749.
Here, we present the approach to be implemented in the frame of a Swiss research project that recently started (July 2020). The overall aim is to protect the forest’s soil fertility and biodiversity. When choosing an extraction method, the nutrient storage of a respective forest stand should be considered in order to prevent the exploitation of the site-specific nutrient pool. This topic is timely because full-tree harvesting for energetic purposes has increased continuously in the last few years. In addition, summer logging in the foliage state is under discussion because climate change is increasingly reducing winter harvesting periods. We aim to determine the current nutrient pools of different Swiss forest sites by conducting comprehensive soil analyses considering pH value, exchangeable nutrient cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na, Mn, Fe, and Zn), as well as the contents of nitrogen, sulfur, phosphorus and carbon(org). Furthermore, nutrient fluxes such as weathering rate, deposition and soil leaching are considered. The resulting site-specific data are combined with expected nutrient removals over one rotation period, depending on tree species composition, forest stand development and extraction methods. In the frame of this project, two case studies will be implemented in beech woodland stands on sediments of the early and late Pleistocene, serving as a data basis to calculate nutrient balances and to formulate management recommendations. In the long-term, we aim to apply this method to Switzerland overall and develop software that allows an automatic calculation of site-specific nutrient balances in order to support future forest management planning and decision-making processes.
Janine Schweier; Stephan Zimmermann; Timothy Thrippleton; Stefan Holm; Golo Stadelmann; Daniel Kurz; Fritz Frutig. Nutrient Sustainability in Swiss Wood Extraction. Environmental Sciences Proceedings 2020, 3, 36 .
AMA StyleJanine Schweier, Stephan Zimmermann, Timothy Thrippleton, Stefan Holm, Golo Stadelmann, Daniel Kurz, Fritz Frutig. Nutrient Sustainability in Swiss Wood Extraction. Environmental Sciences Proceedings. 2020; 3 (1):36.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJanine Schweier; Stephan Zimmermann; Timothy Thrippleton; Stefan Holm; Golo Stadelmann; Daniel Kurz; Fritz Frutig. 2020. "Nutrient Sustainability in Swiss Wood Extraction." Environmental Sciences Proceedings 3, no. 1: 36.
1. In a Europe shaped by centuries of forest management, the task of today’s scientists in characterising, understanding and modelling natural forests is highly challenging. Although numerous forest reserves exist, most remain hardly comparable case studies. Contrarily, National Forest Inventories (NFIs) consist of systematically distributed sample plots with varying time since last intervention and provide representative data. These characteristics make NFIs a unique opportunity to investigate hidden natural forests. 2. Here, we propose using NFI plots free of human influence for >40 to >70 years (‘latent reserves’) to conduct large‐scale studies on near‐natural forests. We tested this original concept in Swiss forests. We characterised compositional and structural attributes of ‘latent reserves’ and compared them with those of managed forests to assess whether the former demonstrated more signs of naturalness than the latter. As an example of an application, we analysed the tree‐ and stand‐level factors affecting natural tree mortality in ‘latent reserves’. 3. Up to 15.3% of Swiss NFI plots fulfilled the criteria of ‘latent reserves’, and most of these plots were distributed at mid‐ to high elevations where accessibility and management opportunities are limited. ‘Latent reserves’ showed more signs of naturalness than managed forests: a higher proportion of broadleaves, higher mortality rates, higher stand density and more deadwood. However, their size structure and basal area did not differ from those of managed forests, most likely because of a lower site productivity. Although ‘latent reserves’ were transitioning towards a natural state, more time without management might be required for these forests to become fully detached from the effects of past management, especially at high elevations. Mortality analyses in ‘latent reserves’ showed that species‐specific tree mortality had a U‐shaped response to tree size, was negatively related to tree growth, and was higher when competition was stronger. 4. Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate the potential of ‘latent reserves’ to study near‐natural forests at the country level, and point to further opportunities for larger‐scale collaborations. Investigating ‘latent reserves’ represents a first step towards a deeper understanding of such forests using existing long‐term data and shows promise for further research in Europe.
Jeanne Portier; Jan Wunder; Golo Stadelmann; Jürgen Zell; Meinrad Abegg; Esther Thürig; Brigitte Rohner. ‘Latent reserves’: A hidden treasure in National Forest Inventories. Journal of Ecology 2020, 109, 369 -383.
AMA StyleJeanne Portier, Jan Wunder, Golo Stadelmann, Jürgen Zell, Meinrad Abegg, Esther Thürig, Brigitte Rohner. ‘Latent reserves’: A hidden treasure in National Forest Inventories. Journal of Ecology. 2020; 109 (1):369-383.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJeanne Portier; Jan Wunder; Golo Stadelmann; Jürgen Zell; Meinrad Abegg; Esther Thürig; Brigitte Rohner. 2020. "‘Latent reserves’: A hidden treasure in National Forest Inventories." Journal of Ecology 109, no. 1: 369-383.
Quantifizierung der Waldbiomasse und des Holznutzungspotenzials in der Schweiz Zahlreiche Länder entwickelten auf Basis der vorhandenen nationalen Waldinventur und deren Netz Modelle, um den Waldzustand in die Zukunft zu projizieren. Mit solchen Modellen können Bewirtschaftungsszenarien simuliert werden, um Holznutzungspotenziale oder Kohlenstoffbilanzen im Wald zu schätzen, die als Entscheidungsgrundlage für die Waldpolitik oder als Basis für den «Forest Reference Level» (FRL) dienen, dessen Bestimmung aufgrund von internationalen Verpflichtungen wie dem Pariser Abkommen erforderlich ist. In diesem Artikel wird der distanzunabhängige Einzelbaumsimulator Massimo vorgestellt, und seine Anwendung wird in einem Szenario mit konstanter Vorratshaltung demonstriert. Massimo basiert auf dem schweizerischen Landesforstinventar (LFI), wobei die demografischen Prozesse (Regeneration, Wachstum, Nutzung und Mortalität) empirisch an dessen Daten angepasst wurden. Durch die Initialisierung und Simulation auf dem Netz des LFI sind die Modellvorhersagen statistisch repräsentativ für die Schweiz, was zuverlässige Schätzungen zur Waldentwicklung auf regionaler (Wirtschaftsregion, Produktionsregion) und nationaler Ebene (Schweiz) ermöglicht. Eine konstante Vorratshaltung in allen Wirtschaftsregionen der Schweiz unter der Annahme des heutigen Klimas würde in den nächsten 50 Jahren dazu führen, dass sich die Nutzung vom gut erschlossenen Mittelland in weniger dicht erschlossene Gebiete des Alpenraumes verlagern müsste. Trotz konstanter Vorratshaltung würde dabei die Biomasse weiter ansteigen, da der Laubholzanteil zunimmt und Laubbäume mehr Astderbholz und eine höhere Holzdichte aufweisen. Eine Nutzungsverlagerung in den Alpenraum würde zu höheren Erntekosten führen, die bei den gegenwärtigen Marktpreisen nur mit Subventionen gedeckt werden könnten. Während verschiedene Bewirtschaftungsformen Teil der Szenariodefinition sind, werden in Massimo keine Annahmen über soziale und wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen berücksichtigt. Hingegen werden die Prozesse Wachstum, Mortalität und Regeneration gegenwärtig klimasensitiv implementiert, wodurch das sich verändernde Klima zukünftig berücksichtigt werden kann. Durch die zusätzliche Implementation von Indikatoren zur Wirtschaftlichkeit, zur Schutzwirkung und zur Biodiversität bietet Massimo Potenzial für Anwendungen mit Fokus auf weitere Waldleistungen auch unter dem Aspekt des Klimawandels.
Golo Stadelmann. Quantifizierung der Waldbiomasse und des Holznutzungspotenzials in der Schweiz. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 2020, 171, 124 -132.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann. Quantifizierung der Waldbiomasse und des Holznutzungspotenzials in der Schweiz. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen. 2020; 171 (3):124-132.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann. 2020. "Quantifizierung der Waldbiomasse und des Holznutzungspotenzials in der Schweiz." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 171, no. 3: 124-132.
Background Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition. Results The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value. Conclusions By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
Christian Temperli; Clemens Blattert; Golo Stadelmann; Urs-Beat Brändli; Esther Thürig. Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis. Forest Ecosystems 2020, 7, 1 -17.
AMA StyleChristian Temperli, Clemens Blattert, Golo Stadelmann, Urs-Beat Brändli, Esther Thürig. Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis. Forest Ecosystems. 2020; 7 (1):1-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristian Temperli; Clemens Blattert; Golo Stadelmann; Urs-Beat Brändli; Esther Thürig. 2020. "Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis." Forest Ecosystems 7, no. 1: 1-17.
National forest inventory based growth simulators are an important tool to assess long-term consequences of forest management in many European countries. MASSIMO is the empirically-based growth simulator used in Switzerland. This individual-tree model has been developed to simulate the growth of trees using the spatial grid of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) and its repeated measurements. MASSIMO has been used at the national scale to predict timber harvesting potentials, to assess the CO2 effects of Swiss forests and their potential for carbon sequestration, especially regarding the full timber chain, and for simulating the forest management reference level (FMRL) under the Kyoto protocol. Further, MASSIMO has been used to evaluate different timber mobilisation scenarios in a mountainous landscape and to evaluate timber-mobilisation strategies and habitat-tree retention in low-elevation Swiss forests.
Golo Stadelmann; Markus Didion; Esther Thürig. Scenario Simulations. Managing Forest Ecosystems 2019, 285 -296.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Markus Didion, Esther Thürig. Scenario Simulations. Managing Forest Ecosystems. 2019; ():285-296.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Markus Didion; Esther Thürig. 2019. "Scenario Simulations." Managing Forest Ecosystems , no. : 285-296.
Forest development models have been used to predict growth and yield for a long time. Yield tables, for example, have been optimised to predict the yield of pure even-aged stands on the basis of long-term observations from experimental forest plots. However, forests in Switzerland cover a broad ecological gradient and forest structures are diverse, with several even- and uneven-aged stand types that can include various species mixtures. Given such diverse forest ecosystems, we predict harvesting potentials and forest management reference levels using the Swiss National Forest Inventory-based individual-tree growth simulator MASSIMO.
Golo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Brigitte Rohner; Markus Didion; Anne Herold; Erik Rösler; Esther Thürig. Forest Development Model MASSIMO. Managing Forest Ecosystems 2019, 265 -279.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Christian Temperli, Brigitte Rohner, Markus Didion, Anne Herold, Erik Rösler, Esther Thürig. Forest Development Model MASSIMO. Managing Forest Ecosystems. 2019; ():265-279.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Brigitte Rohner; Markus Didion; Anne Herold; Erik Rösler; Esther Thürig. 2019. "Forest Development Model MASSIMO." Managing Forest Ecosystems , no. : 265-279.
The original article was erroneously published without applying all the provided proof corrections in Section 5 and Table 1.
Jari Vauhkonen; Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Klemens Schadauer; Philippe Lejeune; Jérôme Perin; Mikhail Pitchugin; Radim Adolt; Miroslav Zeman; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Allan Sims; Claire Bastick; François Morneau; Antoine Colin; Susann Bender; Pál Kovácsevics; György Solti; László Kolozs; Dóra Nagy; Kinga Nagy; Mark Twomey; John Redmond; Patrizia Gasparini; Monica Notarangelo; Maria Rizzo; Kristaps Makovskis; Andis Lazdins; Ainars Lupikis; Gintaras Kulbokas; Clara Antón-Fernández; Francisco Castro Rego; Leónia Nunes; Gheorghe Marin; Catalin Calota; Damjan Pantić; Dragan Borota; Joerg Roessiger; Michal Bosela; Vladimír Šebeň; Mitja Skudnik; Patricia Adame; Iciar Alberdi; Isabel Canellas; Torgny Lind; Renats Trubins; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann; Ben Ditchburn; David Ross; Justin Gilbert; Lesley Halsall; Markus Lier; Tuula Packalen. Correction to: Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe. Annals of Forest Science 2019, 76, 93 .
AMA StyleJari Vauhkonen, Ambros Berger, Thomas Gschwantner, Klemens Schadauer, Philippe Lejeune, Jérôme Perin, Mikhail Pitchugin, Radim Adolt, Miroslav Zeman, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Allan Sims, Claire Bastick, François Morneau, Antoine Colin, Susann Bender, Pál Kovácsevics, György Solti, László Kolozs, Dóra Nagy, Kinga Nagy, Mark Twomey, John Redmond, Patrizia Gasparini, Monica Notarangelo, Maria Rizzo, Kristaps Makovskis, Andis Lazdins, Ainars Lupikis, Gintaras Kulbokas, Clara Antón-Fernández, Francisco Castro Rego, Leónia Nunes, Gheorghe Marin, Catalin Calota, Damjan Pantić, Dragan Borota, Joerg Roessiger, Michal Bosela, Vladimír Šebeň, Mitja Skudnik, Patricia Adame, Iciar Alberdi, Isabel Canellas, Torgny Lind, Renats Trubins, Esther Thürig, Golo Stadelmann, Ben Ditchburn, David Ross, Justin Gilbert, Lesley Halsall, Markus Lier, Tuula Packalen. Correction to: Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe. Annals of Forest Science. 2019; 76 (3):93.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJari Vauhkonen; Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Klemens Schadauer; Philippe Lejeune; Jérôme Perin; Mikhail Pitchugin; Radim Adolt; Miroslav Zeman; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Allan Sims; Claire Bastick; François Morneau; Antoine Colin; Susann Bender; Pál Kovácsevics; György Solti; László Kolozs; Dóra Nagy; Kinga Nagy; Mark Twomey; John Redmond; Patrizia Gasparini; Monica Notarangelo; Maria Rizzo; Kristaps Makovskis; Andis Lazdins; Ainars Lupikis; Gintaras Kulbokas; Clara Antón-Fernández; Francisco Castro Rego; Leónia Nunes; Gheorghe Marin; Catalin Calota; Damjan Pantić; Dragan Borota; Joerg Roessiger; Michal Bosela; Vladimír Šebeň; Mitja Skudnik; Patricia Adame; Iciar Alberdi; Isabel Canellas; Torgny Lind; Renats Trubins; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann; Ben Ditchburn; David Ross; Justin Gilbert; Lesley Halsall; Markus Lier; Tuula Packalen. 2019. "Correction to: Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe." Annals of Forest Science 76, no. 3: 93.
• Key message A dataset of forest resource projections in 23 European countries to 2040 has been prepared for forest-related policy analysis and decision-making. Due to applying harmonised definitions, while maintaining country-specific forestry practices, the projections should be usable from national to international levels. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4t880qh . The associated metadata are available at https://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/8f93e0d6-b524-43bd-bdb8-621ad5ae6fa9 .
Jari Vauhkonen; Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Klemens Schadauer; Philippe Lejeune; Jérôme Perin; Mikhail Pitchugin; Radim Adolt; Miroslav Zeman; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Allan Sims; Claire Bastick; François Morneau; Antoine Colin; Susann Bender; Pál Kovácsevics; György Solti; László Kolozs; Dóra Nagy; Kinga Nagy; Mark Twomey; John Redmond; Patrizia Gasparini; Monica Notarangelo; Maria Rizzo; Kristaps Makovskis; Andis Lazdins; Ainars Lupikis; Gintaras Kulbokas; Clara Antón-Fernández; Francisco Castro Rego; Leónia Nunes; Gheorghe Marin; Catalin Calota; Damjan Pantić; Dragan Borota; Joerg Roessiger; Michal Bosela; Vladimír Šebeň; Mitja Skudnik; Patricia Adame; Iciar Alberdi; Isabel Cañellas; Torgny Lind; Renats Trubins; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann; Ben Ditchburn; David Ross; Justin Gilbert; Lesley Halsall; Markus Lier; Tuula Packalen. Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe. Annals of Forest Science 2019, 76, 1 -12.
AMA StyleJari Vauhkonen, Ambros Berger, Thomas Gschwantner, Klemens Schadauer, Philippe Lejeune, Jérôme Perin, Mikhail Pitchugin, Radim Adolt, Miroslav Zeman, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Allan Sims, Claire Bastick, François Morneau, Antoine Colin, Susann Bender, Pál Kovácsevics, György Solti, László Kolozs, Dóra Nagy, Kinga Nagy, Mark Twomey, John Redmond, Patrizia Gasparini, Monica Notarangelo, Maria Rizzo, Kristaps Makovskis, Andis Lazdins, Ainars Lupikis, Gintaras Kulbokas, Clara Antón-Fernández, Francisco Castro Rego, Leónia Nunes, Gheorghe Marin, Catalin Calota, Damjan Pantić, Dragan Borota, Joerg Roessiger, Michal Bosela, Vladimír Šebeň, Mitja Skudnik, Patricia Adame, Iciar Alberdi, Isabel Cañellas, Torgny Lind, Renats Trubins, Esther Thürig, Golo Stadelmann, Ben Ditchburn, David Ross, Justin Gilbert, Lesley Halsall, Markus Lier, Tuula Packalen. Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe. Annals of Forest Science. 2019; 76 (3):1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJari Vauhkonen; Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Klemens Schadauer; Philippe Lejeune; Jérôme Perin; Mikhail Pitchugin; Radim Adolt; Miroslav Zeman; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Allan Sims; Claire Bastick; François Morneau; Antoine Colin; Susann Bender; Pál Kovácsevics; György Solti; László Kolozs; Dóra Nagy; Kinga Nagy; Mark Twomey; John Redmond; Patrizia Gasparini; Monica Notarangelo; Maria Rizzo; Kristaps Makovskis; Andis Lazdins; Ainars Lupikis; Gintaras Kulbokas; Clara Antón-Fernández; Francisco Castro Rego; Leónia Nunes; Gheorghe Marin; Catalin Calota; Damjan Pantić; Dragan Borota; Joerg Roessiger; Michal Bosela; Vladimír Šebeň; Mitja Skudnik; Patricia Adame; Iciar Alberdi; Isabel Cañellas; Torgny Lind; Renats Trubins; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann; Ben Ditchburn; David Ross; Justin Gilbert; Lesley Halsall; Markus Lier; Tuula Packalen. 2019. "Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe." Annals of Forest Science 76, no. 3: 1-12.
Forest development models have been used to predict future harvesting potentials and forest management reference levels under the Kyoto guidelines. This contribution aims at presenting the individual-tree simulator MASSIMO and demonstrating its scope of applications with simulations of two possible forest management reference levels (base or business as usual) in an example application. MASSIMO is a suitable tool to predict timber harvesting potentials and forest management reference levels to assess future carbon budgets of Swiss forests. While the current version of MASSIMO accurately accounts for legacy effects and management scenarios, effects of climate and nitrogen deposition on growth, mortality, and regeneration are not yet included. In addition to including climate sensitivity, the software may be further improved by including effects of species mixture on tree growth and assessing ecosystem service provision based on indicators.
Golo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Brigitte Rohner; Markus Didion; Anne Herold; Erik Rösler; Esther Thürig. Presenting MASSIMO: A Management Scenario Simulation Model to Project Growth, Harvests and Carbon Dynamics of Swiss Forests. Forests 2019, 10, 94 .
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Christian Temperli, Brigitte Rohner, Markus Didion, Anne Herold, Erik Rösler, Esther Thürig. Presenting MASSIMO: A Management Scenario Simulation Model to Project Growth, Harvests and Carbon Dynamics of Swiss Forests. Forests. 2019; 10 (2):94.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Brigitte Rohner; Markus Didion; Anne Herold; Erik Rösler; Esther Thürig. 2019. "Presenting MASSIMO: A Management Scenario Simulation Model to Project Growth, Harvests and Carbon Dynamics of Swiss Forests." Forests 10, no. 2: 94.
Accurate and representative prediction of ingrowth is essential for modeling forest development. Besides the number of ingrowth trees, the basic tree attributes diameter and species are also important. In this study, these three characteristics were modeled based on data from the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). The study covered large gradients of stand conditions and climate variables, making the models suitable to predict ingrowth under climate change. As the number of ingrowth trees per plot included more zeros than is expected for a Poisson distribution, we used three alternative probability distributions: zero-inflated Poisson distribution (ZIP), negative binomial distribution (NB) and zero-inflated negative binomial distribution (ZINB). Models with each of the three variants were fitted with and without random effects, resulting in six different model types. Model selection was performed backward using the BIC criterion. Of the final models, ZIP showed the best predictions of independently observed number of ingrowth trees. Our results indicate that the number of ingrowth trees strongly depended on the development stage of forests and on stand basal area, while temperature and precipitation, nitrogen deposition and water holding capacity each had a lower but still significant and plausible effect. The Weibull function was used to describe the probability distribution of the diameter of ingrowth trees and parameters were estimated using the Likelihood approach. The diameter of ingrowth trees was larger where there was a better site index and decreased with increasing stand density. Further, twelve species groups of ingrowth trees were fitted with a multinomial regression approach and showed clear dependence on climate: the probability of spruce and larch ingrowth clearly decreased with increasing temperature, whilst all other tree species profited from warmer conditions. The probability of fir, beech and ash ingrowth increased with increasing basal area, demonstrating the relevance of shade tolerance. The most important variable for predicting the species of ingrowth was the leading tree species group in a plot.
Jürgen Zell; Brigitte Rohner; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann. Modeling ingrowth for empirical forest prediction systems. Forest Ecology and Management 2018, 433, 771 -779.
AMA StyleJürgen Zell, Brigitte Rohner, Esther Thürig, Golo Stadelmann. Modeling ingrowth for empirical forest prediction systems. Forest Ecology and Management. 2018; 433 ():771-779.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJürgen Zell; Brigitte Rohner; Esther Thürig; Golo Stadelmann. 2018. "Modeling ingrowth for empirical forest prediction systems." Forest Ecology and Management 433, no. : 771-779.
Timber use in central Europe is expected to increase in the future, in line with forest policy goals to strengthen local wood supply for CO2-neutral energy production, construction and other uses. Growing stocks in low-elevation forests in Switzerland are currently high as exemplified by the Swiss canton of Aargau, for which an average volume of 346 ± 16 m3 ha−1 was measured in the 3rd Swiss National forest inventory (NFI) in 2004–2006. While this may justify a reduction of growing stocks through increased timber harvesting, we asked whether such a strategy may conflict with the sustainability of timber production and conservation goals. We evaluated a range of operationally relevant forest management scenarios that varied with respect to rotation length, growing stock targets and the promotion of conifers in the regeneration. The scenarios aimed at increased production of softwood, energy wood, the retention of potential habitat trees (PHTs) and the conversion to a continuous cover management system. They were used to drive the inventory-based forest simulator MASSIMO for 100 years starting in 2007 using the NFI sampling plots in Aargau. We analyzed model outputs with respect to projected future growing stock, growth, timber and energy yield and harvesting costs. We found growing stock to drop to 192 m3 ha−1 in 2106 if business-as-usual (BAU as observed between the 2nd and 3rd NFI) timber volumes were set as harvesting targets for the whole simulation period. The promotion of conifers and a reduction of rotation lengths in a softwood scenario yielded 25% more timber over the whole simulation period than BAU. An energy wood scenario that reduced growing stock to 200 m3 ha−1 by 2056 and promoted the natural broadleaved regeneration yielded 9% more timber than BAU before 2056 and 30% less thereafter due to decreasing increments. The softwood scenario resulted in higher energy yield than the energy wood scenario despite the lower energy content of softwood. Retaining PHT resulted in a reduction of timber harvest (0.055 m3 ha−1 yr−1 per habitat tree) and higher harvesting costs. Continuous cover management yielded moderate timber amounts throughout the simulation period, yet sustainably. Considering climate change, we discuss the risks associated with favoring drought- and disturbance-susceptible conifers at low elevations and emphasize that continuous cover management must allow for the regeneration of drought-adapted tree species. In conclusion, our simulations show potential for short-term increases in timber mobilization but also that such increases need to be carefully balanced with future forest productivity and other forest ecosystem services.
Christian Temperli; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Peter Brang. Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints. European Journal of Forest Research 2017, 136, 711 -725.
AMA StyleChristian Temperli, Golo Stadelmann, Esther Thürig, Peter Brang. Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints. European Journal of Forest Research. 2017; 136 (4):711-725.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristian Temperli; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Peter Brang. 2017. "Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints." European Journal of Forest Research 136, no. 4: 711-725.
The demand for wood as construction material, renewable source for energy and feedstock for chemicals is expected to increase. However, timber increments are currently only partly harvested in many European mountain regions, which may lead to supply shortages for local timber industries, decreases in forest resistance to disturbances and functioning as protection from gravitational hazards. Using an inventory-based forest simulator, we evaluated scenarios to increase wood mobilization in the 7105-km2 Swiss canton of Grisons for the period 2007–2106. Scenarios varied with respect to landscape-scale harvesting amounts and silvicultural strategies (low vs. high stand-scale treatment intensity) and accounted for regulations and incentives for protection forest management. With 50 and 100% increases of harvests, the current average growing stock of 319 m3 ha−1 was simulated to be reduced by 12 and 33%, respectively, until 2106 in protection forests of Northern Grisons, where management is prioritized due to subsidies. Outside protection forests and in Southern Grisons, growing stock was simulated to continually increase, which led to divergent developments in forest structure in- and outside protection forests and in the Northern and Southern Grisons. The effect of silvicultural strategies on simulated forest structure was small compared to the effect of future harvesting levels. We discuss opportunities and threats of decreasing management activities outside protection forests and advocate for incentives to promote natural regeneration also outside protection forests to safeguard long-term forest stability.
Christian Temperli; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Peter Brang. Silvicultural strategies for increased timber harvesting in a Central European mountain landscape. European Journal of Forest Research 2017, 136, 493 -509.
AMA StyleChristian Temperli, Golo Stadelmann, Esther Thürig, Peter Brang. Silvicultural strategies for increased timber harvesting in a Central European mountain landscape. European Journal of Forest Research. 2017; 136 (3):493-509.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristian Temperli; Golo Stadelmann; Esther Thürig; Peter Brang. 2017. "Silvicultural strategies for increased timber harvesting in a Central European mountain landscape." European Journal of Forest Research 136, no. 3: 493-509.
Timber-harvesting potential of Swiss forests: simulation of management scenarios Growing stock in Swiss forests has, during the past 10 years, increased by 3% overall, with large regional variation. The increase in Alpine regions has been considerable, while growing stock has decreased on the Plateau. We simulated 5 different 100-year management scenarios with the forest development model Massimo. In the base scenario “constant growing stock”, 7.7 million m3 of merchantable timber could be harvesting annually. In the scenario “increasing growing stock”, the harvesting potential was lower (6.3 million m3), but it was higher in the scenarios “continually high increment” (7.8 million m3), “high demand for coniferous timber“ (8.5 million m3) and “high demand for wood fuel or chemical timber” (8.1 million m3). With time, timber-harvesting costs increase for all scenarios, with the least increase for the base scenario. If the prevailing management system continues (scenario “increasing growing stock”), stands will become denser and growing stock increase, with the risk of more disturbances, e.g. wind, snow-breakage, or bark beetles. In the Plateau, however, the regional overuse of recent decades could limit the overall timber-harvesting potential. In Alpine regions, stabilizing growing stock (scenario “constant growing stock”) could improve the resistance of forests, but the harvesting costs per cubic meter might be higher. These management scenarios provide decision makers with indications of how particular forest management strategies could affect the development of growing stock, harvesting amounts and costs.
Golo Stadelmann; Anne Herold; Markus Didion; Beatriz Vidondo; Andres Gomez; Esther Thürig. Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: Simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 2016, 167, 152 -161.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Anne Herold, Markus Didion, Beatriz Vidondo, Andres Gomez, Esther Thürig. Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: Simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen. 2016; 167 (3):152-161.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Anne Herold; Markus Didion; Beatriz Vidondo; Andres Gomez; Esther Thürig. 2016. "Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: Simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 167, no. 3: 152-161.
Timber mobilization possibilities for the chestnut belt of Ticino Many of the traditionally managed chestnut groves and coppice forests in the canton of Ticino have been abandoned in the second half of the 20th century. The ensuing natural development resulted in homogenized stand structures across the landscape, increasing growing stocks and diminishing provision of ecosystem services (e.g. timber, protection from gravitational hazards, nature conservation and recreation services). We used a forest growth simulator (“Massimo”) to simulate a range of management scenarios and possible consequences. Under the current low intensity management growing stocks and tree mortality continue to increase, which – at a large scale – could further reduce the protection and other services and increase the risk of forest fires. This process could be countered with more intense management practices, yet facing relatively high timber harvesting costs. An optimized forest management in the chestnut belt would require the definition of the dominating forest functions, the designation of priority areas and monetary compensation schemes for the provision of the respective forest ecosystem services.
Golo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Marco Conedera; Andrés Gómez; Peter Brang. Möglichkeiten zur Holzmobilisierung im Tessiner Kastaniengürtel. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 2015, 166, 291 -298.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Christian Temperli, Marco Conedera, Andrés Gómez, Peter Brang. Möglichkeiten zur Holzmobilisierung im Tessiner Kastaniengürtel. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen. 2015; 166 (5):291-298.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Christian Temperli; Marco Conedera; Andrés Gómez; Peter Brang. 2015. "Möglichkeiten zur Holzmobilisierung im Tessiner Kastaniengürtel." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 166, no. 5: 291-298.
Golo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Beat Wermelinger; Christof Bigler. Spatial interactions between storm damage and subsequent infestations by the European spruce bark beetle. Forest Ecology and Management 2014, 318, 167 -174.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Harald Bugmann, Beat Wermelinger, Christof Bigler. Spatial interactions between storm damage and subsequent infestations by the European spruce bark beetle. Forest Ecology and Management. 2014; 318 ():167-174.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Beat Wermelinger; Christof Bigler. 2014. "Spatial interactions between storm damage and subsequent infestations by the European spruce bark beetle." Forest Ecology and Management 318, no. : 167-174.
Golo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Franz Meier; Beat Wermelinger; Christof Bigler. Effects of salvage logging and sanitation felling on bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestations. Forest Ecology and Management 2013, 305, 273 -281.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Harald Bugmann, Franz Meier, Beat Wermelinger, Christof Bigler. Effects of salvage logging and sanitation felling on bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestations. Forest Ecology and Management. 2013; 305 ():273-281.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Franz Meier; Beat Wermelinger; Christof Bigler. 2013. "Effects of salvage logging and sanitation felling on bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestations." Forest Ecology and Management 305, no. : 273-281.
Natural disturbances are key factors for the development of forest ecosystems. In forests of central Europe and Scandinavia, the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most devastating biotic disturbance agent in Norway spruce Picea abies, but our understanding of the factors determining its spatio‐temporal dynamics is still quite limited. To quantify the drivers of bark beetle dynamics, we analyzed a survey dataset with annual resolution that covers 17 yr and 469 forest districts (10 860 km2 of forest area) all over Switzerland. We used Poisson log‐normal models in a Bayesian framework to analyze the spatio‐temporal dynamics of bark beetle infestation spots at the forest district level. Bark beetle infestations increased with increasing heat sum (> 8.3°C), volume of standing Norway spruce stock, and the number of infestation spots of the previous year. Precipitation tended to slightly affect the risk of bark beetle infestations. Two major storm events further increased the spatio‐temporal variability of bark beetle infestations. Spruce abundance, storm damage and temperature are known to be important factors influencing the population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle. Our study is the first to quantify the combined effects of spruce abundance and heat sum, whereby the heat sum turned out to be the most important and consistent predictor. Because our study area encompasses large ecological and climatological gradients, our model is likely to be applicable to Norway spruce forests in other regions of central Europe and Scandinavia.
Golo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Beat Wermelinger; Franz Meier; Christof Bigler. A predictive framework to assess spatio-temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle. Ecography 2013, 36, 1208 -1217.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Harald Bugmann, Beat Wermelinger, Franz Meier, Christof Bigler. A predictive framework to assess spatio-temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle. Ecography. 2013; 36 (11):1208-1217.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Harald Bugmann; Beat Wermelinger; Franz Meier; Christof Bigler. 2013. "A predictive framework to assess spatio-temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle." Ecography 36, no. 11: 1208-1217.
Modelling the impact of ungulate browsing on the development of the protective forests of the Rigi-Nordlehne Forests on the northern slopes of the Rigi Mountain in central Switzerland (“Rigi-Nordlehne”) have a key protective function against rockfall, erosion, landslides, flooding and debris flows. Forest management endeavours to guarantee that these forests can maintain their role in the long term. Thus multi-story canopies are favored, being resistant and resilient to natural disturbances such as windthrow. In addition, the mixture of tree species should conform to the guidelines of the national project “Sustainability and success monitoring in protection forests” (NaiS). However, at the present time an imbalance in tree species is evident in the regeneration layer, due to the considerable impact of browsing by wild ungulate populations in these beech and fir forests. To predict future mixtures of tree species, the spatially explicit model of forest development Rigfor was developed and applied to simulate and compare two scenarios of forest dynamics. The scenario “current browsing” suggests that silver fir cannot regenerate and that regeneration of maple and beech is greatly hindered. In the scenario “reduced browsing”, however, a species mixture conforming to the national guidelines can be achieved in the regeneration layer. The simulations show that the amount of beech timber decreases whichever the scenario, while for the larger fir trees in diameter classes above 35 cm no changes are to be expected in the coming decades. However, from 2082 onwards a continuing high browsing rate would lead to the elimination of nearly all silver fir trees at the pole stage and in the long run silver fir may be completely eradicated from these stands. We conclude that under a dense canopy of old trees, silver fir and beech can be regenerated if ungulate browsing is considerably reduced. Spruce regeneration however requires more light and this is not often found on the northern slopes of the Rigi Mountain. Opening up the canopy to foster regeneration of the desired mixture of species is a key measure in order to maintain the long-term protective function of these forests. This will only be possible, however, if the current high browsing intensity can be reduced.
Golo Stadelmann; Monika Frehner; Andri Baltensweiler; Harald Bugmann. Modellierung des Einflusses von Wildverbiss auf die Schutzwaldentwicklung an der Rigi-Nordlehne. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 2011, 162, 355 -363.
AMA StyleGolo Stadelmann, Monika Frehner, Andri Baltensweiler, Harald Bugmann. Modellierung des Einflusses von Wildverbiss auf die Schutzwaldentwicklung an der Rigi-Nordlehne. Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen. 2011; 162 (10):355-363.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGolo Stadelmann; Monika Frehner; Andri Baltensweiler; Harald Bugmann. 2011. "Modellierung des Einflusses von Wildverbiss auf die Schutzwaldentwicklung an der Rigi-Nordlehne." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 162, no. 10: 355-363.