Recently, global biomass-burning research has grown from what was primarily a climate field to include a vibrant air quality observation and forecasting community. While new fire monitoring systems are based on fundamental Earth Systems Science (ESS) research, adaptation to the forecasting problem requires special procedures and simplifications. In a reciprocal manner, results from the air quality research community have contributed scientifically to basic ESS. To help exploit research and data products in climate, ESS, meteorology and air quality biomass burning communities, the joint Navy, NASA, NOAA, and University Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) program was formed in 1999. Based upon the operational NOAA/NESDIS Wild-Fire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) and the near real time University of Maryland/NASA MODIS fire products coupled to the operational Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) transport model, FLAMBE is a combined ESS and operational system to study the nature of smoke particle emissions and transport at the synoptic to continental scales. In this paper, we give an overview of the FLAMBE system and present fundamental metrics on emission and transport patterns of smoke. We also provide examples on regional smoke transport mechanisms and demonstrate that MODIS optical depth data assimilation provides significant variance reduction against observations. Using FLAMBE as a context, throughout the paper we discuss observability issues surrounding the biomass burning system and the subsequent propagation of error. Current indications are that regional particle emissions estimates still have integer factors of uncertainty.

Sea ice leads (fractures) play a critical role in the exchange of mass and energy between the ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions. The thinning of Arctic sea ice over the last few decades will likely result in changes in lead distributions, so monitoring their characteristics is increasingly important. Here we present a methodology to detect and characterize sea ice leads using satellite imager thermal infrared window channels. A thermal contrast method is first used to identify possible sea ice lead pixels, then a number of geometric and image analysis tests are applied to build a subset of positively identified leads. Finally, characteristics such as width, length and orientation are derived. This methodology is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations for the months of January through April over the period of 2003 to 2018. The algorithm results are compared to other satellite estimates of lead distribution. Lead coverage maps and statistics over the Arctic illustrate spatial and temporal lead patterns.

Despite accounting for a small fraction of the surface area in the Arctic, long and narrow sea ice fractures, known as “leads”, play a critical role in the energy flux between the ocean and atmosphere. As the volume of sea ice in the Arctic has declined over the past few decades, it is increasingly important to monitor the corresponding changes in sea ice leads. A novel approach has been developed using artificial intelligence (AI) to detect sea ice leads using satellite thermal infrared window data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). In this new approach, a particular type of convolutional neural network, a U-Net, replaces a series of conventional image processing tests from our legacy algorithm. Results show the new approach has a high detection accuracy with F1 Scores on the order of 0.7. Compared to the legacy algorithm, the new algorithm shows improvement, with more true positives, fewer false positives, fewer false negatives, and better agreement between satellite instruments.