An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability.

The advances in our understanding of extratropical atmosphere–ocean interaction over the past decade and a half are examined, focusing on the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies. The main goal of the paper is to assess what was learned from general circulation model (GCM) experiments over the recent two decades or so. Observational evidence regarding the nature of the interaction and dynamical theory of atmospheric anomalies forced by surface thermal anomalies is reviewed. Three types of GCM experiments used to address this problem are then examined: models with fixed climatological conditions and idealized, stationary SST anomalies; models with seasonally evolving climatology forced with realistic, time-varying SST anomalies; and models coupled to an interactive ocean. From representative recent studies, it is argued that the extratropical atmosphere does respond to changes in underlying SST although the response is small compared to internal (unforced) variability. Two typ... Abstract The advances in our understanding of extratropical atmosphere–ocean interaction over the past decade and a half are examined, focusing on the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies. The main goal of the paper is to assess what was learned from general circulation model (GCM) experiments over the recent two decades or so. Observational evidence regarding the nature of the interaction and dynamical theory of atmospheric anomalies forced by surface thermal anomalies is reviewed. Three types of GCM experiments used to address this problem are then examined: models with fixed climatological conditions and idealized, stationary SST anomalies; models with seasonally evolving climatology forced with realistic, time-varying SST anomalies; and models coupled to an interactive ocean. From representative recent studies, it is argued that the extratropical atmosphere does respond to changes in underlying SST although the response is small compared to internal (unforced) variability. Two typ...

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.

The dynamical mechanisms associated with the impact of year-to-year variability in tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on North American precipitation, during the cold and warm halves of the hydrological year (October–September) are examined. Observations indicate that during both seasons warmer-than-normal TNA SSTs are associated with a reduction of precipitation over North America, mainly west of ∼90°W, and that the effect can be up to 30% of the year-to-year seasonal precipitation RMS variability. This finding confirms earlier studies with observations and models. During the cold season (October–March) the North American precipitation variability associated with TNA fluctuations is considerably weaker than its association with ENSO. During the warm season (April–September), however, the Atlantic influence, per one standard deviation of SST anomalies, is larger than that of ENSO. The observed association between TNA SST anomalies and global and North American precipitation and sea level pressure variability is compared with that found in the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST variability, both globally and in the tropical Atlantic alone. The similarity between model output and observations suggests that TNA SST variability is causal. The mechanisms of the “upstream” influence of the Atlantic on North American precipitation are seasonally dependent. In the warm season, warmer-than-normal TNA SSTs induce a local increase in atmospheric convection. This leads to a weakening of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and a reduction in precipitation over the United States and northern Mexico, associated with the anomalous southward flow there. In the cold season, a response similar to the warm season over the subtropical Atlantic is identified, but there is also a concomitant suppression of convection over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a weakening of the Aleutian low and subsidence over western North America, similar to the impact of La Niña although weaker in amplitude. The impact of TNA SST on tropical convection and the extratropical circulation is examined by a set of idealized experiments with a linear general circulation model forced with the tropical heating field derived from the full AGCM.