Glacial refuge areas are expected to harbor a large fraction of the intraspecific biodiversity of the temperate biota. To test this hypothesis, we studied chloroplast DNA variation in 22 widespread European trees and shrubs sampled in the same forests. Most species had genetically divergent populations in Mediterranean regions, especially those with low seed dispersal abilities. However, the genetically most diverse populations were not located in the south but at intermediate latitudes, a likely consequence of the admixture of divergent lineages colonizing the continent from separate refugia.

This study combines neutrality tests and environmental correlations to identify nonneutral patterns of evolution in candidate genes related to drought stress in two closely related Mediterranean conifers, Pinus pinaster Ait. and P. halepensis Mill. Based on previous studies, we selected twelve amplicons covering six candidate genes that were sequenced in a large sample spanning the full range of these two species. Neutrality tests relatively robust to demography (DHEW compound test and maximum likelihood multilocus Hudson–Kreitman–Aguadé test) were used to detect selection events at different temporal scales. Environmental associations between variation at candidate genes and climatic variables were also examined. These combined approaches detected distinct genes that may be targeted by selection, most of them specific to only one of the two conifers, despite their recent divergence (<10 Ma). An exception was 4-coumarate: CoA ligase, a gene involved in the production of various important secondary products that appeared to play a role in local adaptation processes of both pines. Another remarkable result was that all significant environmental correlations involved temperature indices, highlighting the importance of this climatic factor as a selective driver on Mediterranean pines. The ability to detect natural selection at the DNA sequence level depends on the nature and the strength of the selection events, on the timescale at which they occurred, and on the sensitivity of the methods to other evolutionary forces that can mimic selection (e.g., demography and population structure). Using complementary approaches can help to capture different aspects of the evolutionary processes that govern molecular variation at both intra- and interspecific levels.

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, five of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically-defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establishing mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.