Agriculture remains important in driving economic transformation, sustainable livelihoods, and development in developing countries. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agriculture sectors and implications for the attainment of developmental outcomes such as food security, poverty reduction, and sustainable development in Southern Africa. The review gives policy messages for coping, adapting, and building resilience of water and agricultural production systems in the face of projected changes in climate and variability. The aim is to guide the region towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Future projections for Southern Africa indicate reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and high variability for the greater part of the region with severe reductions on the drier and marginal western parts. These impacts have profound implications for agriculture performance and contribution to national and regional developmental goals. The region is projected to experience reductions of between 15% and 50% in agricultural productivity, a scenario that would exacerbate food insecurity in the region. The challenge is to increase productivity on current arable land through efficient and sustainable management of available water and energy, and at the same time reducing pressure on the environment. Affordability and accessibility of innovative adaptation measures on water resources remain critical and these strategies should be part of broader sustainable development efforts. Overall, efforts to enhance agricultural productivity need to emphasise investments in sustainable management and use of water and energy resources in agriculture to achieve sustainable economic growth and livelihoods.

Sustainable development has become the main focus of the global development agenda as presented in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, for countries to assess progress, they need to have reliable baseline indicators. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a composite baseline index of the agriculture-related SDGs in Southern Africa to guide progress reporting. The paper identified eight of the SDG indicators related to the agriculture sector. The paper relies on data for indicators from five SDGs (SDGs 1, 2, 6, 7 and 15). Applying the arithmetic mean method of aggregation, an agriculture-related SDG composite index for Southern Africa between zero (0 = poor performance) and 100 (best possible performance) was computed for thirteen countries that had data on all identified indicators. The results show that the best performing countries (Botswana, Angola, Namibia, Zambia and South Africa) in the assessment recorded high scores in SDGs 1, 2 and 7. The three countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Madagascar) that performed poorly on both SDG 1 and 2 also had the least scores on the overall agriculture-related SDG composite index. The water stress indicator for SDG 6 recorded the worst performance among most countries in the region. Possible approaches to improve the contribution of agriculture to SDGs may include investing more resources in priority areas for each agriculture-related SDG depending on baseline country conditions. The implementation, monitoring and evaluation of regional and continental commitments in the agriculture sector and the SDGs are critical for achievement of the targets at the national and local levels. While the methods employed are well-grounded in literature, data unavailability for some of the SDGs in some countries presented a limitation to the study, and future efforts should focus on collecting data for the other SDGs in order to permit a wider application.

We undertook a historical review of wheat varietal improvements in South Africa from 1891 to 2013, thus extending the period of previous analyses. We identified popular wheat varieties, particularly those that form the basis for varietal improvements, and attempted to understand how policy changes in the wheat sector have affected wheat varietal improvements in the country over time. The empirical analysis is based on the critical review of information from policies, the varieties bred and their breeders, the years in which those varieties were bred, and pedigree information gathered from the journal Farming in South Africa, sourced mainly from the National Library of South Africa and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) database. A database of the sources and uses of wheat varietal innovations in South Africa was developed using information from the above sources. The data, analysed using trend and graphical analysis, indicate that, from the 1800s, wheat varietal improvements in the country focused on adaptability to the production area, yield potential and stability and agronomic characteristics (e.g. tolerance to diseases, pests and aluminium toxicity). An analysis of the sources of wheat varietal improvements during the different periods indicates that wheat breeding was driven initially by individual breeders and agricultural colleges. The current main sources of wheat varietal improvements in South Africa are Sensako, the Agricultural Research Council’s Small Grain Institute (ARC–SGI) and Pannar. The structural changes in the agricultural sector, particularly the establishment of the ARC–SGI and the deregulation of the wheat sector, have helped to harness the previously fragmented efforts in terms of wheat breeding. The most popular varieties identified for further analysis of cost attribution and the benefits of wheat varietal improvements were Gariep, Elands and Duzi. Significance: These findings form the basis for the next analysis focusing on the attribution of the benefits and costs in terms of investment in wheat breeding in South Africa.

The strengthening of the intellectual property rights (IPRs) for plant varieties provide incentives for breeding companies to invest more resources in plant breeding. The main objective of this paper was to analyze the effects of strengthening the wheat variety intellectual protection on wheat productivity and the release of new varieties. The strength of IPR systems was measured using an intellectual property (IP) protection index, and plant breeders’ rights (PBRs) granted for wheat varieties. The empirical analyses were based on correlation and multiple regression analyses. The results showed that strengthening IPR systems in South Africa contribute to improving wheat productivity and increasing the number of wheat varieties released. Furthermore, although the robust coefficients of the other IPR variables are positive, they are statistically insignificant for all scenarios. There is a need for more incentives beyond granting PBRs and strengthening of IPR systems to be provided in the whole wheat sector to stimulate increased investments and the release of new varieties.

Addressing the multiple challenges facing global agriculture requires integrated innovation in areas such as seeds, biotechnology, crop protection, grain storage and transport. Innovations related to plant improvement and the development of new or improved plant varieties will only happen at an optimal level if plant breeders’ rights (PBR) are properly protected. The objective was to analyse the evolving landscape of wheat plant breeders’ rights to address the dearth of empirical evidence of the patterns and trends of wheat varietal improvements in South Africa. We compiled a detailed and novel count and attribute database of wheat varietal innovations in South Africa from 1979 to 2013 using various sources. This data set was then analysed to ascertain the main trends in, and ownership of PBRs for wheat varietal improvements in South Africa over this period. A total of 134 PBR wheat varietal innovations were lodged from 1979 to 2013, an average of 6 applications per year. The administrative delays in granting PBR applications were substantially reduced by 77 days during the post-deregulation period (after 1996), indicating increased efficiency. The main PBR applicants were Sensako (39%), the Agricultural Research Council Small Grains Institute (ARC-SGI) (25%) and Pannar (15%). The ARC-SGI contributed to some of the PBRs owned by private companies through shared genetic resources before Plant Variety Protection (PVP) was implemented. Future innovations and dissemination of wheat innovations can be stimulated by plant variety protection, together with broader variety sector legislation that encourages both public and private sector investment.

It is well accepted that biological innovations, particularly varietal improvements, have greatly contributed to agricultural yield and output growth in the past. At the same time, public funding for breeding programmes such as at the Agricultural Research Council in South Africa has dwindled. In an effort to confirm the importance of continued funding of varietal improvement programmes, this paper estimates the benefits from wheat varietal innovations and attributes them to the different institutional sources (public, private and others) that have contributed to varietal changes in South Africa. The empirical analyses used data on market shares of wheat varieties planted by farmers and annual quantities of wheat produced across different wheat-production areas in South Africa (summer dryland, dryland winter, and irrigation). A vintage regression model was estimated to calculate the proportional yield gain from wheat varietal improvements. The results indicated that the rate of gain in yield as a result of releases of new wheat varieties (variety research) was 0.8 per cent per year (equivalent to 19.84 kg/ha/year) for dryland summer varieties, and 0.5 per cent for both irrigation (equivalent to 32.20 kg/ha/year) and dryland winter varieties (equivalent to 16.65 kg/ha/year). The attribution of benefits among different institutional sources confirms that not accounting for attribution of benefits by source and time period results is overestimation of benefits to any specific research programme. Attribution of benefits by institutional source showed that Sensako dominated, while the share of the ARC-SGI substantially declined, after deregulation of the wheat sub-sector. The results highlight the impact of the decline in public funding for wheat variety improvement research after deregulation and provide a strong argument for continued public funding for variety improvement in South Africa.