The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

The Andes of South America hosts perhaps the highest amphibian species diversity in the world, and a sizable component of that diversity is comprised of direct-developing frogs of the genus Pristimantis (Anura: Craugastoridae). In order to better understand the initial stages of species formation in these frogs, this study quantified local-scale spatial genetic structuring in three species of Pristimantis. DNA sequences of two mitochondrial gene fragments (16S and COI) were obtained from P. brevifrons, P. palmeri and P. jubatus at different locations in the Cordillera Occidental. We found high levels of genetic diversity in the three species, with highly structured populations (as measured by F_ST) in P. brevifrons and P. palmeri while P. jubatus showed panmixia. Large effective population sizes, inferred from the high levels of genetic diversity, were found in the three species and two highly divergent lineages were detected within P. jubatus and P. palmeri. Estimated divergence times among populations within P. brevifrons and P. palmeri coincide with the Pleistocene, perhaps due to similar responses to climatic cycling or recent geological history. Such insights have important implications for linking alpha and beta diversity, suggesting regional scale patterns may be associated with local scale processes in promoting differentiation among populations in the Andes.

Rabies virus kills tens of thousands of people globally each year, especially in resource-limited countries. Yet, there are genetically- and antigenically-related lyssaviruses, all capable of causing the disease rabies, circulating globally among bats without causing conspicuous disease outbreaks. The species richness and greater genetic diversity of African lyssaviruses, along with the lack of antibody cross-reactivity among them, has led to the hypothesis that Africa is the origin of lyssaviruses. This hypothesis was tested using a probabilistic phylogeographical approach. The nucleoprotein gene sequences from 153 representatives of 16 lyssavirus species, collected between 1956 and 2015, were used to develop a phylogenetic tree which incorporated relevant geographic and temporal data relating to the viruses. In addition, complete genome sequences from all 16 (putative) species were analysed. The most probable ancestral distribution for the internal nodes was inferred using three different approaches and was confirmed by analysis of complete genomes. These results support a Palearctic origin for lyssaviruses (posterior probability = 0.85), challenging the ‘out of Africa’ hypothesis, and suggest three independent transmission events to the Afrotropical region, representing the three phylogroups that form the three major lyssavirus clades. Rabies virus kills tens of thousands of people globally each year and causes indescribable misery and family disturbance, especially in developing countries. Yet in much of the world there are related viruses, called lyssaviruses, which circulate among bats without causing conspicuous outbreaks. The greater diversity of African lyssaviruses has led to the hypothesis that Africa is the origin of these viruses. To test this hypothesis, the genetic data from 153 representative viruses from 16 available lyssavirus species from across the world dated between 1956 and 2015 were analysed. Statistical models were used to reconstruct the historical processes that lead to the contemporary distribution of these viruses. Our results support a Palearctic origin for lyssaviruses, not Afrotropic, and suggest three independent transmission events to Africa from the Palearctic region.