How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity.

A geostatistical framework for integrating lower-atmosphere state variables and terrain characteristics into the spatial interpolation of rainfall is presented. Lower-atmosphere state variables considered are specific humidity and wind, derived from an assimilated data product from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR reanalysis). These variables, along with terrain elevation and its gradient from a 1-km-resolution digital elevation model, are used for constructing additional rainfall predictors, such as the amount of moisture subject to orographic lifting; these latter predictors quantify the interaction of lower-atmosphere characteristics with local terrain. A “first-guess” field of precipitation estimates is constructed via a multiple regression model using collocated rain gauge observations and rainfall predictors. The final map of rainfall estimates is derived by adding to this initial field a field of spatially interpo... Abstract A geostatistical framework for integrating lower-atmosphere state variables and terrain characteristics into the spatial interpolation of rainfall is presented. Lower-atmosphere state variables considered are specific humidity and wind, derived from an assimilated data product from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR reanalysis). These variables, along with terrain elevation and its gradient from a 1-km-resolution digital elevation model, are used for constructing additional rainfall predictors, such as the amount of moisture subject to orographic lifting; these latter predictors quantify the interaction of lower-atmosphere characteristics with local terrain. A “first-guess” field of precipitation estimates is constructed via a multiple regression model using collocated rain gauge observations and rainfall predictors. The final map of rainfall estimates is derived by adding to this initial field a field of spatially interpo...

Census population data are associated with several analytical and cartographic problems. Regression models using remote‐sensing covariates have been examined to estimate urban population density, but the performance may not be satisfactory. This paper describes a kriging‐based areal interpolation method, namely area‐to‐point residual kriging, which can be used to disaggregate the residuals remaining from regression. Compared with conventional cokriging, the area‐to‐point residual kriging is much simpler in that only a semivariogram model for the point residuals is required, as opposed to a set of auto‐ and cross‐semivariogram models involving the dependent variable and all the covariates. In addition, area‐to‐point residual kriging explicitly accounts for any scale differences between source data and target values. The method is illustrated by disaggregating population from census units to the land‐use zones within them. Comparative results for regression with and without area‐to‐point residual kriging show that area‐to‐point residual kriging can substantially improve interpolation accuracy.