Interannual variability of the primary production in the middle Adriatic Sea for the period 1961–2002 was examined and correlated to the various atmospheric and oceanographic parameters. The sequentialt-test analysis of regime shift (STARS) method and locally-weighted scatter plot smoothing (LOWESS) method were applied to the primary production, revealing the new regime with significantly different mean productivity ranging from 1980–1996. Moreover, this period with the highest primary production, consists of the two distinguished sub-periods: periods of increasing (1980–1986) and decreasing (1987–1996) primary production. Whereas in the first period the ecosystem was under the influence of warmer and nutrient richer Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) intrusions into the Adriatic, in the second period, which started with a cold winter in 1987, the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred. The EMT established a new circulation regime which prevented the LIW intrusions in the Adriatic, causing its reduced productivity. Reduced LIW inflow in the Adriatic was evidenced in the lower than normal sea temperature, salinity and oxygen concentrations below the thermocline depth. Precipitation and wind regime also arose as important local factors for the primary production variability. Our analysis connected the shifts in primary production with hemispheric and regional scale climate variations, and supports the hypothesis that atmospheric variability can trigger the ecosystem changes.

In September 2015, a massive occurrence of the Ostreopsis species was recorded in central Adriatic Kaštela Bay. In order to taxonomically identify the Ostreopsis species responsible for this event and determine their toxin profile, cells collected in seawater and from benthic macroalgae were analyzed. Conservative taxonomic methods (light microscopy and SEM) and molecular methods (PCR-based assay) allowed the identification of the species Ostreopsis cf. ovata associated with Coolia monotis. The abundance of O. cf. ovata reached 2.9 × 10⁴ cells L⁻¹ in seawater, while on macroalgae, it was estimated to be up to 2.67 × 10⁶ cells g⁻¹ of macroalgae fresh weight and 14.4 × 10⁶ cells g⁻¹ of macroalgae dry weight. An indirect sandwich immunoenzymatic assay (ELISA) and liquid chromatography–high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) were used to determine the toxin profile. The ELISA assay revealed the presence of 5.6 pg palytoxin (PLTX) equivalents per O. cf. ovata cell. LC-HRMS was used for further characterization of the toxin profile, which showed that there were 6.3 pg of the sum of ovatoxins (OVTXs) and isobaric PLTX per O. cf. ovata cell, with a prevalence of OVTXs (6.2 pg cell⁻¹), while the isobaric PLTX concentration was very low (0.1 pg cell⁻¹). Among OVTXs, the highest concentration was recorded for OVTX-a (3.6 pg cell⁻¹), followed by OVTX-b (1.3 pg cell⁻¹), OVTX-d (1.1 pg cell⁻¹), and OVTX-c (0.2 pg cell⁻¹).

Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1) enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) in the Adriatic, and (2) extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index), although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

In 1962, a series of in situ primary production measurements began in the Adriatic Sea, at a station near the island of Vis. To this day, over 55 years of monthly measurements through the photic zone have been accumulated, including close to 3000 production measurements at different depths. The measurements are conducted over a six-hour period around noon, and the average production rate extrapolated linearly over day length to calculate daily production. Here, a non-linear primary production model is used to correct these estimates for potential overestimation of daily production due to linear extrapolation. The assimilation numbers are recovered from the measured production profiles and subsequently used to model production at depth. Using the recovered parameters, the model explained 87% of variability in measured normalized production at depth. The model is then used to calculate daily production at depth, and it is observed to give on average 20% lower daily production at depth than the estimates based on linear extrapolation. Subsequently, water column production is calculated, and here, the model predicted on average 26% lower water column production. With the recovered parameters and the known magnitude of the overestimation, the time-series of water column production is then re-established with the non-linearly-corrected data. During this 55-year period, distinct regimes were observed, which were classified with a regime shift detection method. It is then demonstrated how the recovered parameters can be used in a remote sensing application. A seasonal cycle of the recovered assimilation number is constructed along with the seasonal cycle of remotely-sensed chlorophyll. The two are then used to model the seasonal cycle of water column production. An upper and a lower bound on the seasonal cycle of water column production based on remotely-sensed chlorophyll data are then presented. Measured water column production was found to be well within the range of remotely-sensed estimates. With this work, the utility of in situ measurements as a means of providing information on the assimilation number is presented and its application as a reference for remote sensing models highlighted.

Southern Adriatic (Eastern Mediterranean Sea) is a region strongly dominated by large-scale oceanographic processes and local open-ocean dense water formation. In this study, picoplankton biomass, distribution, and activity were examined during two oceanographic cruises and analyzed in relation to environmental parameters and hydrographic conditions comparing pre and post-winter phases (December 2015, April 2016). Picoplankton density with the domination of autotrophic biomasses was higher in the pre-winter phase when significant amounts of picoaoutotrophs were also found in the meso-and bathy-pelagic layers, while Synechococcus dominated the picoautotrophic group. Higher values of bacterial production and domination of High Nucleic Acid content bacteria (HNA bacteria) were found in deep waters, especially during the post-winter phase, suggesting that bacteria can have an active role in the deep-sea environment. Aerobic anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria accounted for a small proportion of total heterotrophic bacteria but contributed up to 4% of bacterial carbon content. Changes in the picoplankton community were mainly driven by nutrient availability, heterotrophic nanoflagellates abundance, and water mass movements and mixing. Our results suggest that autotrophic and heterotrophic members of the picoplankton community are an important carbon source in the food web in the deep-sea, as well as in the epipelagic layer. Besides, viral lysis may affect the activity of the picoplankton community and enrich the water column with dissolved organic carbon.