The paper shows wind shear impact on PM₁₀ vertical profiles in Kraków, southern Poland. The data used consist of background data for two cold seasons (September 2018 to April 2019 and September 2019 to April 2020) and data for several case studies from November 2019 to March 2020. The data are composed of PM₁₀ measurements, model data, and wind speed and direction data. The background model data come from operational forecast results of the AROME model. PM₁₀ concentration in the vertical profile was measured with a sightseeing balloon. Significant spatial variability of the wind field was found. The case studies represent the conditions with much lower wind speed and a much higher PM₁₀ level than the seasonal average. The inversions were much more frequent than on average too. Wind shear turned out to be the important factor in terms of PM₁₀ vertical profile modification. It is generated due to the relief impact, i.e. the presence of a large valley, blocked on one side with the hills. The analysis of PM₁₀ profiles from all flights allows us to distinguish three vertical zones of potential air pollution hazards within the valley (about 100 m deep) and the city of Kraków: (1) up to about 60 m a.g.l. – the zone where during periods of low wind speed, air pollution is potentially the highest and the duration of such high levels is the longest, i.e. the zone with the worst aerosanitary conditions; (2) about 60–100 m a.g.l. – transitional zone where the large decrease in PM₁₀ levels with height is observed; (3) above 100–120 m a.g.l. – the zone where air quality is significantly better than in zone 1, either due to the increase in the wind speed or due to the wind direction change and advection of different, clean air masses.

The role of renewable energy sources in the Polish power system is growing. The highest share of installed capacity goes to wind and solar energy. Both sources are characterized by high variability of their power output and very low dispatchability. Taking into account the nature of the power system, it is, therefore, imperative to predict their future energy generation to economically schedule the use of conventional generators. Considering the above, this paper examines the possibility to predict day-ahead wind power based on different machine learning methods not for a specific wind farm but at national level. A numerical weather prediction model used operationally in the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management–National Research Institute in Poland and hourly data of recorded wind power generation in Poland were used for forecasting models creation and testing. With the best method, the Extreme Gradient Boosting, and two years of training (2018–2019), the day-ahead, hourly wind power generation in Poland in 2020 was predicted with 26.7% mean absolute percentage error and 4.5% root mean square error accuracy. Seasonal and daily differences in predicted error were found, showing high mean absolute percentage error in summer and during daytime.

This study presents the assessment of the quantitative influence of atmospheric circulation on the pollutant concentration in the area of Kraków, Southern Poland, for the period 2000–2020. The research has been realized with the application of different statistical parameters, synoptic meteorology tools, the Random Forests machine learning method, and multilinear regression analyses. Another aim of the research was to evaluate the types of atmospheric circulation classification methods used in studies on air pollution dispersion and to assess the possibility of their application in air quality management, including short-term PM₁₀ daily forecasts. During the period analyzed, a significant decreasing trend of pollutants’ concentrations and varying atmospheric circulation conditions was observed. To understand the relation between PM₁₀ concentration and meteorological conditions and their significance, the Random Forests algorithm was applied. Observations from meteorological stations, air quality measurements and ERA-5 reanalysis were used. The meteorological database was used as an input to models that were trained to predict daily PM₁₀ concentration and its day-to-day changes. This study made it possible to distinguish the dominant circulation types with the highest probability of occurrence of poor air quality or a significant improvement in air quality conditions. Apart from the parameters whose significant influence on air quality is well established (air temperature and wind speed at the ground and air temperature gradient), the key factor was also the gradient of relative air humidity and wind shear in the lowest troposphere. Partial dependence calculated with the use of the Random Forests model made it possible to better analyze the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the PM₁₀ daily concentration. The analysis has shown that, for areas with a diversified topography, it is crucial to use the variability of the atmospheric circulation during the day to better forecast air quality.

Prediction of spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in areas with complex topography is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. Simulation of atmosphere over complex terrain requires dense and accurate horizontal and vertical grids. In this study, verification results of three configurations of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International High-Resolution Limited Area Model (ALADIN-HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, using two different horizontal and vertical resolutions and applied to the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains, are presented. One model of the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system is tested in two horizontal and vertical resolutions. Predicted air temperatures are compared with observations from stations located in different orographies. A comparison of model results with observations was conducted for three cold season intervals in 2017 and 2018. Statistical validation of model output demonstrates better model representativeness for stations located on hill and mountain tops compared to locations in valley bottoms. A comparison of results for two topography representations (2 × 2 km and 1 × 1 km) showed no statistically significant differences of root mean square error (RMSE) and bias between model results and observations.

Winter smog episodes are a severe problem in many cities around the world. The following two mechanisms are responsible for influencing the level of pollutant concentrations: emission of pollutants from different sources and associated processes leading to formation of secondary aerosols in the atmosphere and meteorology, including advection, which is stimulated by horizontal wind, and convection, which depends on vertical air mass movements associated with boundary layer stability that are determined by vertical temperature and humidity gradients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based measurement system developed for investigation of urban boundary layer dynamics. The evaluation was done by comparing the results of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and particulate matter fraction with aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM₁₀) concentration vertical profiles obtained using this system with two reference meteorological stations: Jagiellonian University Campus (JUC) and radio transmission tower (RTCN), located in the urban area of Krakow city, Southern Poland. The secondary aim of the study was to optimize data processing algorithms improving the response time of UAV sensor measurements during the ascent and descent parts of the flight mission.

In this article, a machine‐learning‐based tool for calibrating numerical forecasts of near‐surface air temperature is proposed. The study area covers Poland representing a temperate type of climate with transitional features and highly variable weather. The direct output of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is often biased and needs to be adjusted to observed values. Forecasters have to reconcile forecasts from several NWP models during their operational work. As the proposed method is based on deterministic forecasts from three short‐range limited‐area models (ALARO, AROME and COSMO), it can support them in their decision‐making process. Predictors include forecasts of weather elements produced by the NWP models at synoptic weather stations across Poland and station‐embedded data on ambient orography. The Random Forests algorithm (RF) has been used to produce bias‐corrected forecasts on a test set spanning one year. Its performance was evaluated against the NWP models, a linear combination of all predictors (multiple linear regression, MLR) as well as a basic Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Detailed evaluation was done to identify potential strengths and weaknesses of the model at the temporal and spatial scale. The value of RMSE of a forecast obtained by the RF model was 11% and 27% lower compared to the MLR model and the best‐performing NWP model respectively. The ANN model turned out to be even superior, outperforming RF by around 2.5%. The greatest improvement occurred for warm bias during the nighttime from July to September. The largest difference in forecast accuracy between RF and ANN appeared for temperature drops inApril nights. Poor performance of RF for extreme temperature ranges may be suppressed by training the model on forecast error instead of observed values of the variable.