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We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.
Mehmet Balcilar; Elie Bouri; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch. El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7987 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta, Christian Pierdzioch. El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (14):7987.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Elie Bouri; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch. 2021. "El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements." Sustainability 13, no. 14: 7987.
This study introduces a novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) based extended joint connectedness approach in order to characterize connectedness of 11 agricultural commodity and Crude Oil futures prices spanning from July 1, 2005 to May 1, 2020. Our results reveal that the system-wide dynamic connectedness is heterogeneous over time and driven by economic events. Peaks have been reached during the Global Financial Crisis, European Governmental Debt Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Further findings show that commodities such as Crude Oil, Grains, Livestock, Sugar, and Soybean Oil tend to be the main net transmitters of shocks while Corn, Lean Hogs, Soybeans, Cattle, and Wheat are the main receivers of shocks. Pairwise connectedness on the other hand shows that Crude Oil not only affects other commodity markets, but is also equally responsive to innovations that take place in most of these markets explaining the high interconnectedness of the network. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the chosen normalization technique employed in the connectedness framework as the retrieved findings have important implications for investors to design strategies for optimization of portfolio and asset allocation, reduction in downside risk along with hedging strategies. The full implementation and replication code is available at: https://github.com/GabauerDavid/ConnectednessApproach.
Mehmet Balcilar; David Gabauer; Zaghum Umar. Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach. Resources Policy 2021, 73, 102219 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, David Gabauer, Zaghum Umar. Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach. Resources Policy. 2021; 73 ():102219.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; David Gabauer; Zaghum Umar. 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach." Resources Policy 73, no. : 102219.
Conflicts are socio-political pressures that alter wellbeing, social structure, and economic sustenance. However, very limited studies have assessed the long-term impact of conflicts on environmental sustainability. This study investigates the role of internal and external conflicts on ecological footprint in the Middle East and North African countries (MENA) over the period 1995–2016. Here, we test whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is valid for MENA countries during the period of internal and external conflicts—characterized by energy disasters and deteriorating income levels. Using robust econometric tools based on 12 MENA countries, the results show that income growth has negative impact with evidence of inherent heterogeneity across quantile distribution of ecological footprint. However, the positive impact of the square term of income decreases ecological footprint, thus, confirming U-shaped relationship between income and environmental indicator across MENA countries. The results further show that excessive energy consumption is attributed to a rising level of urbanization, while increase in conflicts stimulates environmental degradation. These findings are essential for effective conflict resolution and environmental policies across conflict-prone countries.
Ojonugwa Usman; Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi; Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie. Conflicts and ecological footprint in MENA countries: implications for sustainable terrestrial ecosystem. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2021, 1 -12.
AMA StyleOjonugwa Usman, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi, Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie. Conflicts and ecological footprint in MENA countries: implications for sustainable terrestrial ecosystem. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2021; ():1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleOjonugwa Usman; Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi; Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie. 2021. "Conflicts and ecological footprint in MENA countries: implications for sustainable terrestrial ecosystem." Environmental Science and Pollution Research , no. : 1-12.
This paper investigates the predictive content of news-based advanced market, regional, and global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) measures for bond spreads and their volatility in emerging markets (EMs) by extending the higher (k-th) order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to a multivariate case. Results show that global and advanced market EPU measures have predictive power for EM bond spreads in the lower and upper quantiles while for volatility, the predictive power is stronger in the upper quantiles and further observes predictability in the mid quantiles. Predictability detected for all EMs is characterized by an inherent heterogeneity leading to an asymmetric pattern over the distribution of EM bond spreads and volatility. The implication for heterogeneity in our results is that when EPU is high in advanced markets, global investors’ appetite for the EM local currency bonds increases due to high yields. However, when EPU is low, global investors move out of EMs because of the perceived unsafe investment environments in EMs.
Mehmet Balcilar; Ojonugwa Usman; Hasan Gungor; David Roubaud; Mark E. Wohar. Role of global, regional, and advanced market economic policy uncertainty on bond spreads in emerging markets. Economic Modelling 2021, 102, 105576 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Ojonugwa Usman, Hasan Gungor, David Roubaud, Mark E. Wohar. Role of global, regional, and advanced market economic policy uncertainty on bond spreads in emerging markets. Economic Modelling. 2021; 102 ():105576.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Ojonugwa Usman; Hasan Gungor; David Roubaud; Mark E. Wohar. 2021. "Role of global, regional, and advanced market economic policy uncertainty on bond spreads in emerging markets." Economic Modelling 102, no. : 105576.
This study is aimed at examining the dynamic relationship between real housing prices (RHP) return and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach and annual data for a panel of panel of 16 countries over the period 2004–2018. The study includes economic growth, short-term interest rate, and population as additional covariates. Empirical results show that a positive shock to EPU leads to a decrease in housing prices with EPU showing only a weak response to housing price shocks. This implies that EPU has a robust predictive power for the housing market, implying the need for evaluating the associated risks. The panel Granger causality tests indicate strong and robust Granger causality from the EPU to housing prices, but not vice versa. The causal links also indicate that the effect of the EPU on RHP is direct rather than indirect through other variables. Based on these outcomes, policy recommendations are made for real estate agents, portfolio managers, and policy makers.
Mehmet Balcilar; David Roubaud; Gizem Uzuner; Mark E. Wohar. Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach. International Review of Economics & Finance 2021, 76, 114 -126.
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, David Roubaud, Gizem Uzuner, Mark E. Wohar. Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach. International Review of Economics & Finance. 2021; 76 ():114-126.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; David Roubaud; Gizem Uzuner; Mark E. Wohar. 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach." International Review of Economics & Finance 76, no. : 114-126.
This study investigates and estimates long-run time-varying income and price elasticities of oil demand in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). A time-varying cointegration (TVC) approach allowing for the smooth changes in the parameters is employed, using quarterly data covering the period from 1990:Q1 to 2018:Q4. TVC tests confirm the variation in the long-run parameters over time for all countries by rejecting the null hypothesis of time-invariant cointegration. Moreover, results reveal that time-varying parameters of income and oil prices are inelastic for all counties’ oil markets. BRICS’s oil demand is significantly affected by the real economic activity, although the evidence on inelastic income implies oil as a necessary commodity. The sign of time-varying price elasticities implies oil as an ordinary good for Brazil, Russia, and China whereas an inferior good in some intervals for India and South Africa. The evidence on the insignificance of price elasticities in most of the analysis periods indicates that regulation of oil product prices cannot control domestic oil demand. Hence, one can infer that taxes imposed on petroleum product prices are not an effective policy instrument to reduce greenhouse emissions.
Mohammed I.Abu Eleyan; Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık; Mehmet Balcılar; Esra Ballı. Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries. Energy 2021, 229, 120710 .
AMA StyleMohammed I.Abu Eleyan, Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık, Mehmet Balcılar, Esra Ballı. Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries. Energy. 2021; 229 ():120710.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed I.Abu Eleyan; Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık; Mehmet Balcılar; Esra Ballı. 2021. "Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries." Energy 229, no. : 120710.
This paper offers new evidence on the exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries through the analysis of the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index and rolling-windows. Using the monthly frequency data from 1999:M01-2019:M11, our study provides the following findings: (i) there is strong evidence of directional spillovers across the countries; (ii) the total spillovers are low, with Russia (China) having the highest (lowest). This suggests a low pass-through across the countries; (iii) the net spillovers of oil price and exchange rate are positive in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, while in India, they are both negative. Our results further suggest that the net spillovers of inflation and output growth are positive in India, while in China, the net spillover of inflation is negative with oil price and output growth having positive net spillovers. The positive (negative) net spillover indicates that a variable contributes to the forecast error variance decomposition of other variables more(less) than what it receives from other variables; (iv) the historical events and crises interrupt the extent of spillovers across the countries, and; (v) the spillovers exhibit significant bursts with no clear-cut evidence of trends across these countries. These findings are useful in formulating an optimal monetary policy.
Mehmet Balcilar; Ojonugwa Usman. Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis. Energy 2021, 229, 120666 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Ojonugwa Usman. Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis. Energy. 2021; 229 ():120666.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Ojonugwa Usman. 2021. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis." Energy 229, no. : 120666.
This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate time-varying alphas and betas in conditional factor models, which allows substantial flexibility in a time-varying framework. To circumvent problems associated with the previous approaches, we introduce a Bayesian time-varying parameter model where innovations of the state equation have a spike-and-slab mixture distribution. The mixture distribution specifies two states with a specific probability. In the first state, the innovation variance is set close to zero with a certain probability and parameters stay relatively constant. In the second state, the innovation variance is large and the change in parameters is normally distributed with mean zero and a given variance. The latent state is specified with a threshold that governs the state change. We allow a separate threshold for each parameter; thus, the parameters may shift in an unsynchronized manner such that the model moves from one state to another when the change in the parameter exceeds the threshold and vice versa. This approach offers great flexibility and nests a plethora of other time-varying model specifications, allowing us to assess whether the betas of conditional factor models evolve gradually over time or display infrequent, but large, shifts. We apply the proposed methodology to industry portfolios within a five-factor model setting and show that the threshold Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) provides robust beta estimates coupled with smaller pricing errors compared to the alternative approaches. The results have significant implications for the implementation of smart beta strategies that rely heavily on the accuracy and stability of factor betas and yields.
Mehmet Balcilar; Riza Demirer; Festus Bekun. Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold. Mathematics 2021, 9, 915 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Riza Demirer, Festus Bekun. Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold. Mathematics. 2021; 9 (8):915.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Riza Demirer; Festus Bekun. 2021. "Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold." Mathematics 9, no. 8: 915.
In this paper, we test for the period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through (EROPPT) for the BRICS countries using monthly frequency data. To this end, we extend the Diebold-Yilmaz (DY) spillover index to nonlinear settings based on the vector smooth transition autoregressive (STVAR) model. The results suggest that changes in the exchange rate and oil price of different magnitudes have asymmetric effects between the lower and upper regimes of the period-specific and regime-dependent pass-through. The results further show that the pass-through effects are stronger during periods the BRICS economies have completely adjusted to a specific regime than periods in which the economies only partially adjusted. Furthermore, our findings show considerable evidence of a higher pass-through when nonlinearity is captured. Overall, these findings provide macroeconomic insights for the monetary policymakers.
Mehmet Balcilar; David Roubaud; Ojonugwa Usman; Mark E. Wohar. Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries. Energy Economics 2021, 98, 105249 .
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, David Roubaud, Ojonugwa Usman, Mark E. Wohar. Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries. Energy Economics. 2021; 98 ():105249.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; David Roubaud; Ojonugwa Usman; Mark E. Wohar. 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries." Energy Economics 98, no. : 105249.
Our study investigates the dynamic pass‐through of energy prices (crude oil price, electricity price, natural gas price, and coal price) to real house price in the United States using the data from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the empirical results suggest an incomplete pass‐through for all the energy prices to real house price both in the long run and short run except for long‐run pass‐through of crude oil price which is complete with statistically insignificant parameter. The Granger causality results reveal a feedback effect between natural gas price and real house price, output growth and real house price, natural gas price and crude oil price, coal price and electricity price, and output growth and coal price. In addition, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from crude oil price, natural gas price, real house price, and coal price to electricity price. Again, we find that crude oil price is the cause of coal price in Granger sense. Therefore, our findings provide insights into proper design of energy policy that reduces the transmission of energy price shocks to house price in the United States.
Gizem Uzuner; Ojonugwa Usman; Andrew Adewale Alola. An examination of the pass‐through of disaggregated energy prices to real house price: Evidence from the United States. Journal of Public Affairs 2021, e2638 .
AMA StyleGizem Uzuner, Ojonugwa Usman, Andrew Adewale Alola. An examination of the pass‐through of disaggregated energy prices to real house price: Evidence from the United States. Journal of Public Affairs. 2021; ():e2638.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGizem Uzuner; Ojonugwa Usman; Andrew Adewale Alola. 2021. "An examination of the pass‐through of disaggregated energy prices to real house price: Evidence from the United States." Journal of Public Affairs , no. : e2638.
We re‐examine the theoretical and empirical relationship between income inequality and long‐run economic growth in an endogenous growth model with a flat tax on income, distributive conflicts among agents, and median voter dynamics. We show that when government spends tax revenue on the provision of public goods in the form of both production and consumption services, the theoretical relationship between inequality and economic growth is neither strictly positive nor strictly negative, but ambiguous. An empirical evaluation of the theoretical findings is carried out by applying a semi‐parametric model on a sample of 63 countries for the period 1991–2017. Results show that the relationship between income inequality and growth takes the form of an inverted U‐shape in that income inequality initially has a positive impact on growth up to an average Gini coefficient threshold of 35.92, beyond which it negatively impacts on growth.
Mehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta; Wei Ma; Philton Makena. Income inequality and economic growth: A re‐examination of theory and evidence. Review of Development Economics 2021, 25, 737 -757.
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta, Wei Ma, Philton Makena. Income inequality and economic growth: A re‐examination of theory and evidence. Review of Development Economics. 2021; 25 (2):737-757.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta; Wei Ma; Philton Makena. 2021. "Income inequality and economic growth: A re‐examination of theory and evidence." Review of Development Economics 25, no. 2: 737-757.
In this paper, we analyze time-varying predictability of financial stress due to growth in income inequality of the United States (US) over the annual period of 1913 to 2016. In order to ensure that we remove the asset price effects on income inequality, and provide incorrect inferences regarding the impact on financial stress, we work with capital-gains excluded six alternative measures of top shares of pretax income and wages. We find that the top 10%, the top 10% to 5%, and the top 5% to 1% inequality growth rates tend to predict financial stress relatively better than the corresponding inequality growth rates associated with the top 1%, top 0.1%, and the top 0.01% of the income distribution. Moreover, all the six metrics of inequality growth is capable of predicting the heightened financial stress observed during the onset of the Great Depression and the same associated with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, our in-sample evidence of predictability tends to carry over to an out-of-sample forecasting exercise under four out of the six measures of inequality considered, and in particular for the broader measures of inequality – a result consistent with our in-sample analysis.
Mehmet Balcilar; Edmond Berisha; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch. Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 2021, 57, 87 -92.
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Edmond Berisha, Rangan Gupta, Christian Pierdzioch. Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 2021; 57 ():87-92.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Edmond Berisha; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch. 2021. "Time-varying evidence of predictability of financial stress in the United States over a century: The role of inequality." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 57, no. : 87-92.
By using quarterly data over the period 1970Q1‐2017Q4, this paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption by using rolling and recursive rolling Granger causality methods. This study is pioneering effort to examine the dynamic causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption using time‐varying Granger causality tests for 20 top and bottom globalized economies. The empirical results reveal that the dynamic causality relationship between globalization and energy consumption is time‐varying. Although, the causal relationship could not be observed for some of the study periods, bidirectional causality is found in many sub‐samples. From the empirical findings, we observe that unidirectional causality running from globalization to energy consumption has grievous impact on trade and environmental quality. In general, our empirical results resonate with the previous findings of globalization energy‐driven hypothesis, with significant policy implications for top and bottom globalized countries.
Muhammad Shahbaz; Mehmet Balcilar; Mantu Kumar Mahalik; Seyi Saint Akadiri. Is causality between globalization and energy consumption bidirectional or unidirectional in top and bottom globalized economies? International Journal of Finance & Economics 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Shahbaz, Mehmet Balcilar, Mantu Kumar Mahalik, Seyi Saint Akadiri. Is causality between globalization and energy consumption bidirectional or unidirectional in top and bottom globalized economies? International Journal of Finance & Economics. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Shahbaz; Mehmet Balcilar; Mantu Kumar Mahalik; Seyi Saint Akadiri. 2021. "Is causality between globalization and energy consumption bidirectional or unidirectional in top and bottom globalized economies?" International Journal of Finance & Economics , no. : 1.
This paper analyzes the time-varying relationship between risk aversion and both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in an international context and at different frequencies using a wavelet coherency analysis. Our main results suggest the existence of a dynamic relationship between the two variables depending on timescales and on the periods. Thus, a short-run negative relationship leading from the risk aversion variable to the monetary policy measure is found for most of the period, suggesting that monetary policy reacts more aggressively in periods of high risk aversion. Furthermore, during the financial crisis, we find a long-run negative relationship leading from the monetary policy to the risk aversion index, suggesting that a lax monetary policy could lead to financial instability. US monetary policy has also significant effects on the risk aversion rates in the Euro Area, Japan and the UK.
Besma Hkiri; Juncal Cunado; Mehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta. Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: international evidence from time- and frequency-domains. Empirical Economics 2021, 1 -21.
AMA StyleBesma Hkiri, Juncal Cunado, Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta. Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: international evidence from time- and frequency-domains. Empirical Economics. 2021; ():1-21.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBesma Hkiri; Juncal Cunado; Mehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta. 2021. "Time-varying relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and risk aversion: international evidence from time- and frequency-domains." Empirical Economics , no. : 1-21.
This study attempts to unveil an additional dimension to economic freedom within the framework of the environmental Kuznet curve (EKC) hypothesis using the panel data for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economies over the period 1995–2018. Firstly, the study found that the EKC hypothesis is valid only in the long run for the panel countries. Secondly, we found that economic freedom mimics the pattern of economic output. Thus, when economic freedom is employed in lieu of economic growth, the EKC hypothesis is also validated only in the long run. Importantly, when both economic freedom and output are employed alongside, they produce the same carbon mitigation effect in each of the short-run and long-run periods. Thirdly, the country-specific evidence of the role of economic freedom and output in environmental quality is not less of a U-shaped relationship in the short run. Lastly, the impact of the bloc’s energy mix (coal, natural gas, and oil energy utilization) on environmental quality is undesirable in both the short and long run; only in South Africa natural gas has the potential to mitigate carbon emissions. Overall, the study offers relevant policy measures for attaining Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target to combat climate change and its impacts.
Seyi Saint Akadırı; Andrew Adewale Alola; Ojonugwa Usman. Energy mix outlook and the EKC hypothesis in BRICS countries: a perspective of economic freedom vs. economic growth. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2021, 28, 8922 -8926.
AMA StyleSeyi Saint Akadırı, Andrew Adewale Alola, Ojonugwa Usman. Energy mix outlook and the EKC hypothesis in BRICS countries: a perspective of economic freedom vs. economic growth. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2021; 28 (7):8922-8926.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSeyi Saint Akadırı; Andrew Adewale Alola; Ojonugwa Usman. 2021. "Energy mix outlook and the EKC hypothesis in BRICS countries: a perspective of economic freedom vs. economic growth." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28, no. 7: 8922-8926.
We employ time series data to empirically determine the causal relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the GDP growth rates of seven emerging market economies while controlling for the effect of oil price, interest rates, and the CPI. Due to differences in sampling frequencies between the GDP series and other variables, a multi-horizon mixed frequency VAR model is specified. This model fully exploits the recently developed mixed frequency Granger causality test in order to circumvent the distorting effects of temporal aggregation. The empirical results show a strong statistical evidence for causality flowing from EPU to GDP in Brazil, Chile, and India in the mixed frequency case while weak statistical evidence is found for Colombia, Mexico, and Russia. For comparative analysis, the low-frequency Granger causality test is also employed and strong statistical evidence of causality flowing from EPU to GDP in Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico is uncovered. Analyzing the causal patterns uncovered in both specifications show that the low-frequency Granger causality results are less intuitively appealing than those that are obtained from the mixed frequency Granger causality test specifications. The results have empirical as well as policy implications which are discussed.
Mehmet Balcilar; George Ike; Rangan Gupta. The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 2020, 1 -19.
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, George Ike, Rangan Gupta. The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 2020; ():1-19.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; George Ike; Rangan Gupta. 2020. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade , no. : 1-19.
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11860-3.
Paul Terhemba Iorember; Gylych Jelilov; Ojonugwa Usman; Abdurrahman Işık; Bilal Celik. Correction to: The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2020, 28, 13175 -13175.
AMA StylePaul Terhemba Iorember, Gylych Jelilov, Ojonugwa Usman, Abdurrahman Işık, Bilal Celik. Correction to: The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2020; 28 (11):13175-13175.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Terhemba Iorember; Gylych Jelilov; Ojonugwa Usman; Abdurrahman Işık; Bilal Celik. 2020. "Correction to: The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28, no. 11: 13175-13175.
In spite of the achievements of the European Union (EU) member countries with respect to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) 2030 targets, the member countries have reportedly under‐performed in a specific drive towards the SDG 12 (Sustainable Consumption and Production [SCP]). In advancing evidence to this insight, the current study examines the role of domestic material consumption, income and renewable energy utilisation in the panel of the EU‐28 environmental sustainability targets. In specific, we find that domestic material consumption worsens the bloc's environmental quality in both the immediate and long term. Although an increase in per capita income level aids environmental sustainability in the long term, the short‐run effect shows that per capita income growth triggers greenhouse gas emissions. The study further reveals that while cleaner energy development (renewables) improves the countries' environmental sustainability in both the short and long run, the level of real income is yet detrimental to environmental quality. Moreover, consumption of domestic materials, the share of renewable energy utilisation and real income contribute to greenhouse gas emissions in countries like Czech Republic, Lithuania and Malta. Thus, this study suggests country‐specific policies that primarily target domestic consumption and cleaner energy development to achieve environmental sustainability targets among the EU member states.
Andrew Adewale Alola; Seyi Saint Akadiri; Ojonugwa Usman. Domestic material consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU ‐28 countries: Implications for environmental sustainability targets. Sustainable Development 2020, 29, 388 -397.
AMA StyleAndrew Adewale Alola, Seyi Saint Akadiri, Ojonugwa Usman. Domestic material consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU ‐28 countries: Implications for environmental sustainability targets. Sustainable Development. 2020; 29 (2):388-397.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrew Adewale Alola; Seyi Saint Akadiri; Ojonugwa Usman. 2020. "Domestic material consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU ‐28 countries: Implications for environmental sustainability targets." Sustainable Development 29, no. 2: 388-397.
Recent economic and environmental literature suggests that the current state of eneby the British Petroleum Statisticalrgy use in South Africa amidst rapid growing population is unsustainable. Researchers in this area mostly focus on the effect of fossil energy use on carbon (CO2) emission, which represents only an aspect of environmental quality. In contrast, the current study evaluates the influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on ecological footprint––a more comprehensive measure of environmental quality. To this end, the study employs multiple structural breaks cointegration tests (Maki cointegration tests), dynamic unrestricted error correction model through Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and VECM Granger causality tests. The results of the Maki cointegration tests reveal the existence of a cointegration between the variables in all the models with evidence of multiple structural breaks. Further, the ARDL results divulge that an increase in renewable energy use, human capital, and trade improves environmental quality through a decrease in ecological footprint, while an increase in income stimulates ecological footprint. Moreover, causal relationship is found, running from all the variables to renewable energy and trade flow in the long run, while in the short run, economic growth causes ecological footprint. Trade is found to Granger-cause human capital, while human capital causes renewable energy. Additionally, human capital, renewable energy, and economic growth are predictors of trade. The study therefore recommends South African policymakers to consider the importance of renewable energy, human capital development, and trade as a policy option to reduce ecological footprint and improve environmental quality.
Paul Terhemba Iorember; Gylych Jelilov; Ojonugwa Usman; Abdurrahman Işık; Bilal Celik. The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2020, 28, 13162 -13174.
AMA StylePaul Terhemba Iorember, Gylych Jelilov, Ojonugwa Usman, Abdurrahman Işık, Bilal Celik. The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2020; 28 (11):13162-13174.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Terhemba Iorember; Gylych Jelilov; Ojonugwa Usman; Abdurrahman Işık; Bilal Celik. 2020. "The influence of renewable energy use, human capital, and trade on environmental quality in South Africa: multiple structural breaks cointegration approach." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28, no. 11: 13162-13174.
Mehmet Balcilar; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir; Huseyin Ozdemir; Mark E. Wohar. Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 2020, 78, 42 -52.
AMA StyleMehmet Balcilar, Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Huseyin Ozdemir, Mark E. Wohar. Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 2020; 78 ():42-52.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehmet Balcilar; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir; Huseyin Ozdemir; Mark E. Wohar. 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets." The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 78, no. : 42-52.