Based on the daily precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected, categorized and calculated; the temporal and spatial patterns in these indices and their teleconnections with the large-scale circulations were analyzed by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test; and Sen’s slope estimator and linear regression for the period of 1960–2014 were calculated. The results indicated that all extreme precipitation indices had spatial patterns decreasing from the southeastern to the northwestern parts of the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR), except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), which exhibited a reverse spatial pattern. At the whole-region scale, most extreme precipitation indices showed an insignificant decreasing trend, with exceptions in the intensity indices (RX1day and RX5day) with a statistical significance at the 90% confidence level. The total annual precipitation showed a general shift towards a drier climate in the study area. Spatially, all indices for extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends at most stations, except for simple daily intensity index (SDII) and heavy precipitation days (R10). The change in extreme precipitation may be affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Better understanding of extreme precipitation for the BTSSR may be useful in the regional planning for ecological restoration and water management.
The abandonment and cultivation of croplands in the Eurasian Steppe has become the focus of global and regional food security and agricultural policy-making. A large area of cropland in some post-Soviet countries has proven to be abandoned with the disintegration of the Soviet Union; however, it is unclear as to whether Kazakhstan also experienced a similar change as one of the main food providers for the former Soviet Union. In this study, we used the annual land cover dataset (1992–2015) from the European Space Agency, Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) to detect spatio-temporal characteristics of rainfed and irrigated cropland changes in Kazakhstan. The Mann–Kendall test and regime shift analysis showed that rainfed and irrigated cropland at national level had a significant increasing trend with a significant rising up to 1999 and stagnation during 2000–2015, which was further confirmed with analysis at 14 regions. The greatest contributor to rainfed and irrigated croplands was steppes, followed by shrinkage of water bodies since 2005 to a great extent, rapid urbanization process resulted in losses of a part of irrigated oases. The trend surface analysis indicated that reorganized stable pattern characterized by rainfed cropland in north and irrigated cropland in south was driven by the strategy of the gradual agricultural development of oases. The nonexistence of cycle between the abandonment and recultivation proved that newly-gained cropland from steppe may be less degraded and more productive for sustainable land use in Kazakhstan. In conclusion, this study can provide strong evidence for sustainable land use and a basis for food security policy-making in Kazakhstan, and even all of the Central Asian countries in the future.