Background: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. Objectives: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. Methods: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Results: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Conclusions: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Citation: Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore. Environ Health Perspect 124:1369–1375; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509981

Virus detection methodology provides detection of dengue virus in the early phase of the disease. PCR, targeting cDNA derived from viral RNA, has been used as a laboratory-based molecular tool for the detection of Dengue virus . We report the development and use of three real-time one-step reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) assays to detect dengue cases and serotype the virus involved. The first RT-PCR assay uses SYBR green I as the reporting dye for the purpose of cost-effective screening for dengue virus. The detection limit of the SYBR green I assay was 10 PFU/ml (0.01 equivalent PFU per assay) for all four dengue virus serotypes. The second RT-PCR assay is a duplex fluorogenic probe-based real-time RT-PCR for serotyping clinical samples for dengue viruses. The detection threshold of the probe-based RT-PCR format was 0.1 PFU for serotypes Dengue-1 and Dengue-2, 1 PFU for serotype Dengue-3, and 0.01 PFU for serotype Dengue-4. The third is a fourplex assay that detects any of the four serotypes in a single closed tube with comparable sensitivity. Validation of the assays with local clinical samples collected from 2004 to 2006 revealed that there was an 88% positive correlation between virus isolation and RT-PCR with regard to dengue virus detection and a 100% correlation with seroconversion in subsequent samples. The serotyping results derived from duplex and fourplex assays agree fully with each other and with that derived from immunofluorescence assays.

Chikungunya fever swept across many South and South-east Asian countries, following extensive outbreaks in the Indian Ocean Islands in 2005. However, molecular epidemiological data to explain the recent spread and evolution of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the Asian region are still limited. This study describes the genetic Characteristics and evolutionary relationships of CHIKV strains that emerged in Sri Lanka and Singapore during 2006–2008. The viruses isolated in Singapore also included those imported from the Maldives (n=1), India (n=2) and Malaysia (n=31). All analysed strains belonged to the East, Central and South African (ECSA) lineage and were evolutionarily more related to Indian than to Indian Ocean Islands strains. Unique genetic characteristics revealed five genetically distinct subpopulations of CHIKV in Sri Lanka and Singapore, which were likely to have emerged through multiple, independent introductions. The evolutionary network based on E1 gene sequences indicated the acquisition of an alanine to valine 226 substitution (E1-A226V) by virus strains of the Indian sublineage as a key evolutionary event that contributed to the transmission and spatial distribution of CHIKV in the region. The E1-A226V substitution was found in 95.7 % (133/139) of analysed isolates in 2008, highlighting the widespread establishment of mutated CHIKV strains in Sri Lanka, Singapore and Malaysia. As the E1-A226V substitution is known to enhance the transmissibility of CHIKV by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, this observation has important implications for the design of vector control strategies to fight the virus in regions at risk of chikungunya fever.

In Singapore, after a major outbreak of dengue in 2005, another outbreak occurred in 2007. Laboratory-based surveillance detected a switch from dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) to DENV-2. Phylogenetic analysis showed a clade replacement within DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype, which accompanied the predominant serotype switch, and cocirculation of multiple genotypes of DENV-3.

Local transmission of chikungunya, a debilitating mosquito-borne viral disease, was first reported in Singapore in January 2008. After 3 months of absence, locally acquired Chikungunya cases resurfaced in May 2008, causing an outbreak that resulted in a total of 231 cases by September 2008. The circulating viruses were related to East, Central, and South African genotypes that emerged in the Indian Ocean region in 2005. The first local outbreak was due to a wild-type virus (alanine at codon 226 of the envelope 1 gene) and occurred in an area where Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were the primary vector. Strains isolated during subsequent outbreaks showed alanine to valine substitution (A226V) and largely spread in areas predominated by Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. These findings led to a revision of the current vector control strategy in Singapore. This report highlights the use of entomologic and virologic data to assist in the control of chikungunya in disease-endemic areas.