We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, and an analysis of seismicity density in space and time. The spatial extent of precursory patterns differs from one method to the other and ranges from local scales (typically, asperity size) to regional scales (e.g., 2° × 3° around the source zone). The earthquakes were preceded by periods of pronounced anomalies, which lasted in yearly scales (1.5 years), or longer (>3 years). We demonstrate that a combination of multiple methods detected different signals prior to the Kumamoto earthquakes. This indicates great potential to reduce the hazard at possible future sites of earthquakes relative to long-term seismic hazard assessment. We also found that the seismic quiescence in a regional-scale area, detected by using the two methods of seismic quiescence evaluation, was a common precursor to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes and 2015 Off Satsuma Peninsula earthquake. The result allows us to interpret both events as the onset that occurred at a section along the tectonic line from the Okinawa Trough through the Beppu–Shimabara graben.

A highly stressed area where eventual ruptures have often been observed to nucleate is characterized by low b values of earthquake frequency‐size distribution. Crustal deformation due to the occurrence of large earthquakes causes stress perturbation in nearby regions, so an investigation into spatiotemporal b values can play a crucial role in the distribution of postseismic hazards after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence along the Futagawa‐Hinagu fault zone, which culminated in the magnitude 7.3 mainshock. Together with an analysis of aftershock decay p value that can be used to infer stressing history, a highly stressed area with a characteristic dimension of 10 km at the southern end of the causative faults was found. Our observation is explained by postseismic deformation due to an afterslip on the causative faults and viscoelastic relaxation model. Similar to the Kumamoto mainshock rupture, which started at a low‐b‐value area, the observed highly stressed area shows a high likelihood of future earthquake ruptures.

Sagami Bay is an active tectonic area in Japan. In 1993, a real-time deep sea floor observatory was deployed at 1,175 m depth about 7 km off Hatsushima Island, Sagami Bay to monitor seismic activities and other geophysical phenomena. Video cameras monitored biological activities associated with tectonic activities. The observation system was renovated completely in 2000. An ocean bottom electromagnetic meter (OBEM), an ocean bottom differential pressure gauge (DPG) system, and an ocean bottom gravity meter (OBG) were installed January 2005; operations began in February of that year. An earthquake (M5.4) in April 2006, generated a submarine landslide that reached the Hatsushima Observatory, moving some sensors. The video camera took movies of mudflows; OBEM and other sensors detected distinctive changes occurring with the mudflow. Although the DPG and OBG were recovered in January 2008, the OBEM continues to obtain data.

This article is focused on a new procedure concerning a more accurate identification of the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ). Specifically, we first recapitulate that, as was recently shown [P. Varotsos et al., Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 125 (2023) 107370], natural time analysis of seismicity supplemented with the non-additive Tsallis entropy $S_q$ leads to a shortening of the time window of an impending major EQ. This has been shown for the Tohoku mega-EQ of magnitude M9 that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011, which is the largest event ever recorded in Japan. Here, we also show that such a shortening of the time window of an impending mainshock can be achieved for major, but smaller EQs, of the order of M8 and M7. In particular, the following EQs are treated: the Chiapas M8.2 EQ, which is Mexico’s largest EQ for more than a century that took place on 7 September 2017 near the coast of Chiapas state in Mexico, the 19 September 2017 M7.1 EQ that occurred within the Mexican flat slab, and the M7.1 Ridgecrest EQ on 6 July 2019 in California.

Japan's largest platform for academic e-journals: J-STAGE is a full text database for reviewed academic papers published by Japanese societies