In this study, different interpolation techniques in a geographical information system (GIS) environment are analysed and compared for estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation in the province of Ontario, Canada. A high‐resolution regional climate modelling system [Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS)] is used to simulate the present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) precipitation events for 12 meteorological stations over Ontario. The results verify that for the present case PRECIS simulates well the precipitation events when compared with observed data. The future precipitation events can be projected after the validation of PRECIS. Six interpolation methods are then used to generate spatial distribution of precipitation based on the projections of future precipitation of 12 meteorological stations; they include inverse distance weighting (IDW), global polynomial interpolation (GPI), local polynomial interpolation (LPI), radial basis functions (RBF), ordinary kriging (OK), and universal kriging (UK). Cross‐validation is applied to evaluate the accuracy of interpolation methods in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE). The results indicate that LPI is the optimal method with the least RMSE for interpolating the PRECIS precipitation. LPI is then used to analyse spatial variations of the average annual precipitation for the period of 2071–2100 over Ontario.
1 November 2013 in Environmental Modelling & Software
Wastewater flow forecasting is key for proper management of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, to predict the amount of incoming wastewater in WWTPs, wastewater engineers face challenges arising from numerous complexities and uncertainties, such as the nonlinear precipitation-runoff relationships in combined sewer systems, unpredictability due to aging infrastructure, and frequently inconsistent data quality. To address such challenges, a time series analysis model (i.e., the autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA) and an artificial neural network model (i.e., the multilayer perceptron neural network, MLPNN) were developed for predicting wastewater inflow. A case study of the Barrie Wastewater Treatment Facility in Barrie, Canada, was carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed models. Fifteen-minute flow data over a period of 1 year were collected, and the resampled daily flow data were used to train and validate the developed models. The model performances were examined using root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency. The results indicate that both models provided reliable forecasts, while ARIMA showed a slightly better performance than MLPNN in this case study. The proposed models can provide useful decision support for the optimization and management of WWTPs.