Long-term overexploitation of groundwater is the primary factor causing regional land subsidence in the Beijing plain area, China. Currently, large subsidence funnels exist, one each in southern and northern Beijing. We adopted the multi-temporal interferometric synthetic aperture radar (MT-InSAR) method, incorporating both persistent scatterer (PS) and small baseline (SB) approaches on 47 Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) single look complex (SLC) images to map land subsidence in the Beijing plain area. The temporal and spatial variations of land subsidence and its seasonal variation were explained by the MT-InSAR results. Then, the InSAR results were combined with the dynamic monitoring of groundwater level, extensometer measurements, and hydrogeological data; the characterization and causes of land subsidence were analysed with Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis methods. The results show the following. 1) Land subsidence developed rapidly in the Beijing plain area from 2003 to 2010, with obviously uneven settlement; settlement rates exceeded 100 mm year⁻¹ in some areas. Seasonal variation in settlement rates may be affected by changes in the precipitation rates and the exploitation of groundwater. 2) The contribution of different aquifer systems to land subsidence varies. The variation in the groundwater level in the second confined aquifer, at a depth of 100–180 m, has the greatest impact on land subsidence. 3) The settlement is centred in the lower part of the Wenyu–Chaobai and Yongding alluvial fan areas, where the compressible layer is more than 100 m thick. Meanwhile, land subsidence forms a structural feature with larger differences in the deformation gradient on both sides of faults.

Land subsidence, marked by a decline in surface elevation, poses a significant threat to urban infrastructure and safety. Accurate subsidence information and a reliable prediction model are crucial for prevention and control. In this study, we used persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PS-InSAR) technology to obtain long-term land subsidence data and analyzed subsidence characteristics in Decheng District. By integrating hydrogeological and groundwater data, we developed a three-dimensional groundwater flow and one-dimensional compaction model through numerical simulation. Furthermore, the subsidence data monitored by PS-InSAR were used to further constrain and validate the model. The evolution trend of land subsidence under different groundwater exploitation scenarios was predicted and analyzed. The results showed that from May 2017 to December 2021, the cumulative maximum subsidence in Decheng District reached −173 mm. The subsidence area is mainly concentrated in the northern area, and its subsidence center is near Qiaoyuan Town. According to the Land Subsidence Prevention and Control Plan of Dezhou City, Shandong Province (2018–2025), we set up different groundwater mining scenarios with the goal that the rate of land subsidence in the key prevention and control area is less than 35 mm/yr in 2025.The Fluid-solid coupled model prediction analysis results indicated that a 30% reduction in groundwater exploitation is reasonable.