Based on a uniquely dense network of surface towers measuring continuously the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), we developed the first comprehensive monitoring systems of CO₂ emissions at high resolution over the city of Indianapolis. The urban inversion evaluated over the 2012–2013 dormant season showed a statistically significant increase of about 20% (from 4.5 to 5.7 MtC ± 0.23 MtC) compared to the Hestia CO₂ emission estimate, a state‐of‐the‐art building‐level emission product. Spatial structures in prior emission errors, mostly undetermined, appeared to affect the spatial pattern in the inverse solution and the total carbon budget over the entire area by up to 15%, while the inverse solution remains fairly insensitive to the CO₂ boundary inflow and to the different prior emissions (i.e., ODIAC). Preceding the surface emission optimization, we improved the atmospheric simulations using a meteorological data assimilation system also informing our Bayesian inversion system through updated observations error variances. Finally, we estimated the uncertainties associated with undetermined parameters using an ensemble of inversions. The total CO₂ emissions based on the ensemble mean and quartiles (5.26–5.91 MtC) were statistically different compared to the prior total emissions (4.1 to 4.5 MtC). Considering the relatively small sensitivity to the different parameters, we conclude that atmospheric inversions are potentially able to constrain the carbon budget of the city, assuming sufficient data to measure the inflow of GHG over the city, but additional information on prior emission error structures are required to determine the spatial structures of urban emissions at high resolution.

High‐resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high‐resolution fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long‐term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long‐term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter‐term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO₂ emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km² or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO₂ emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO₂ emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as ∼ 1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO₂ emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO₂ emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO₂ emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO₂ concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO₂ fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO₂ fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO₂ emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO₂ emissions modelling with ∼ 1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.

Spatiotemporally resolved urban fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) emissions are critical to urban carbon cycle research and urban climate policy. Two general scientific approaches have been taken to estimate spatiotemporally explicit urban FFCO₂ fluxes, referred to here as “downscaling” and “bottom‐up.” Bottom‐up approaches can specifically characterize the CO₂‐emitting infrastructure in cities but are labor‐intensive to build and currently available in few U.S. cities. Downscaling approaches, often available globally, require proxy information to allocate or distribute emissions resulting in additional uncertainty. We present a comparison of a downscaled FFCO₂ emission data product (Open‐source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO₂ (ODIAC)) to a bottom‐up estimate (Hestia) in four U.S. urban areas in an effort to better isolate and understand differences between the approaches. We find whole‐city differences ranging from −1.5% (Los Angeles Basin) to +20.8% (Salt Lake City). At the 1 km × 1 km spatial scale, comparisons reveal a low‐emission limit in ODIAC driven by saturation of the nighttime light spatial proxy. At this resolution, the median difference between the two approaches ranged from 47 to 84% depending upon city with correlations ranging from 0.34 to 0.68. The largest discrepancies were found for large point sources and the on‐road sector, suggesting that downscaled FFCO₂ data products could be improved by incorporating independent large point‐source estimates and estimating on‐road sources with a relevant spatial surrogate. Progressively coarsening the spatial resolution improves agreement but greater than approximately 25 km², there were diminishing returns to agreement suggesting a practical resolution when using downscaled approaches.