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Sannamari Pilpola
Aalto University School of Science, New Energy Technologies Group, P.O. Box 15100, FI-00076, Aalto, Espoo, Finland

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Journal article
Published: 19 April 2020 in Energy
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Decarbonization is an important goal of the future energy transition, but its modelling is also subject to several uncertainties. Here we investigate the impacts of such uncertainties through analyzing the overall performance and operation of a modelled national energy system undergoing deep decarbonization. Finland was chosen as a case, as it intends to become carbon-neutral already by 2035. Uncertainties in costs, energy consumption, and renewable resource potential and how they affect the operation of a modelled energy system is analyzed using a Monte Carlo method linked to a national energy system model with hourly resolution. The importance of the different uncertainties for the overall system indicators such as annual cost, CO2 emissions, and reliability are assessed. The impacts on different modelled low-carbon pathways are compared. For the Finnish case study, the projected energy consumption seems to be the most important uncertainty factor for the future energy system scenarios (e.g. for the CO2 emissions), followed by the production of wind power and the potential of biomass. The results indicate that addressing input uncertainties will be highly relevant for energy system modelling when pursuing decarbonization. None of the modelled cost-optimal decarbonization pathways stands out as fully resilient in this respect.

ACS Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways. Energy 2020, 201, 117652 .

AMA Style

Sannamari Pilpola, Peter D. Lund. Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways. Energy. 2020; 201 ():117652.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. 2020. "Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways." Energy 201, no. : 117652.

Journal article
Published: 05 June 2019 in Energy Strategy Reviews
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Variable renewable electricity (VRE) will play an important role in future energy systems, but additional flexibility measures will be needed to integrate large-scale VRE into energy systems. Here we investigate the effectiveness of different flexibility options to integrate wind power, using the Finnish energy system as a case. The main flexibility options considered are sector-coupling such as power-to-heat and power-to-gas, energy storages, and electric vehicles. The results indicate that the share of wind power could be increased up to one third of all electricity, limited by the cross-border transmission capacity and the high share of nuclear power in the Finnish case, while simultaneously decreasing annual system costs and carbon emissions. Power-to-heat and wind power curtailment were the most cost-effective flexibility options. Furthermore, combined heat and power (CHP) and nuclear power could form a barrier to cost-effective wind power integration, suggesting that viewing the energy system as a whole provides valuable insight for wind power integration.

ACS Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. Different flexibility options for better system integration of wind power. Energy Strategy Reviews 2019, 26, 100368 .

AMA Style

Sannamari Pilpola, Peter D. Lund. Different flexibility options for better system integration of wind power. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019; 26 ():100368.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. 2019. "Different flexibility options for better system integration of wind power." Energy Strategy Reviews 26, no. : 100368.

Journal article
Published: 12 March 2019 in Energies
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The Paris Climate Accord calls for urgent CO2 reductions. Here we investigate low and zero carbon pathways based on clean electricity and sector coupling. Effects from different spatialities are considered through city and national cases (Helsinki and Finland). The methodology employs techno-economic energy system optimization, including resilience aspects. In the Finnish case, wind, nuclear, and biomass coupled to power-to-heat and other flexibility measures could provide a cost-effective carbon-neutral pathway (annual costs −18%), but nuclear and wind are, to some extent, exclusionary. A (near) carbon-neutral energy system seems possible even without nuclear (−94% CO2). Zero-carbon energy production benefits from a stronger link to the broader electricity market albeit flexibility measures. On the city level, wind would not easily replace local combined heat and power (CHP), but may increase electricity export. In the Helsinki case, a business-as-usual approach could halve emissions and annual costs, while in a comprehensive zero-emission approach, the operating costs (OPEX) could decrease by 87%. Generally, electrification of heat production could be effective to reduce CO2. Low or zero carbon solutions have a positive impact on resilience, but in the heating sector this is more problematic, e.g., power outage and adequacy of supply during peak demand will require more attention when planning future carbon-free energy systems.

ACS Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Vahid Arabzadeh; Jani Mikkola; Peter D. Lund. Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland. Energies 2019, 12, 949 .

AMA Style

Sannamari Pilpola, Vahid Arabzadeh, Jani Mikkola, Peter D. Lund. Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland. Energies. 2019; 12 (5):949.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Vahid Arabzadeh; Jani Mikkola; Peter D. Lund. 2019. "Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland." Energies 12, no. 5: 949.

Journal article
Published: 04 January 2019 in Future Cities and Environment
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ACS Style

Vahid Arabzadeh; Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. Coupling Variable Renewable Electricity Production to the Heating Sector through Curtailment and Power-to-heat Strategies for Accelerated Emission Reduction. Future Cities and Environment 2019, 5, 1 .

AMA Style

Vahid Arabzadeh, Sannamari Pilpola, Peter D. Lund. Coupling Variable Renewable Electricity Production to the Heating Sector through Curtailment and Power-to-heat Strategies for Accelerated Emission Reduction. Future Cities and Environment. 2019; 5 (1):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vahid Arabzadeh; Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. 2019. "Coupling Variable Renewable Electricity Production to the Heating Sector through Curtailment and Power-to-heat Strategies for Accelerated Emission Reduction." Future Cities and Environment 5, no. 1: 1.

Journal article
Published: 24 February 2018 in Energy Policy
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Finland has ambitious climate targets and intends to ban the use of coal and halve the oil use by 2030, mainly based on traditional forest biomass and nuclear power. These policy choices, however, encompass sizeable risks for a low-carbon energy transition. Here we investigate alternative pathways for disruptive risks from such policies based on massive introduction on variable renewable electricity (VRE) with intersectoral coupling through Power-to-X technologies (P2X), also considering future demand uncertainties. We analyzed several risk-involving scenarios for years 2030 and 2050 using a national energy system model with 1-h resolution, which includes power, heat and fuel sectors. The results indicate that even in case of worst-case energy policy risks with nuclear and bioenergy, a feasible energy system solution can be found. Renewable energy resources were employed to their maximum potential levels with P2X flexibility options, especially Power-to-Heat. However, without energy efficiency measures, the present renewable energy resource base was not able to compensate for all primary energy fall-out, which would lead to higher system costs and CO2 emissions. This implies that in case of high dominance of a few energy sources, an alternative pathway may require strong energy efficiency measures and developing further the renewable energy resource base.

ACS Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland. Energy Policy 2018, 116, 323 -336.

AMA Style

Sannamari Pilpola, Peter D. Lund. Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland. Energy Policy. 2018; 116 ():323-336.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sannamari Pilpola; Peter D. Lund. 2018. "Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland." Energy Policy 116, no. : 323-336.