Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make inferences of health states for patients. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, understand complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle these problems, we conducted a design study with clinical scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable and interactive visualizations. In this study, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and building, analyzing, and comparing clinically relevant patient subgroups.

Traditional deep learning interpretability methods which are suitable for model users cannot explain network behaviors at the global level and are inflexible at providing fine-grained explanations. As a solution, concept-based explanations are gaining attention due to their human intuitiveness and their flexibility to describe both global and local model behaviors. Concepts are groups of similarly meaningful pixels that express a notion, embedded within the network's latent space and have commonly been hand-generated, but have recently been discovered by automated approaches. Unfortunately, the magnitude and diversity of discovered concepts makes it difficult to navigate and make sense of the concept space. Visual analytics can serve a valuable role in bridging these gaps by enabling structured navigation and exploration of the concept space to provide concept-based insights of model behavior to users. To this end, we design, develop, and validate CONCEPTEXPLAINER, a visual analytics system that enables people to interactively probe and explore the concept space to explain model behavior at the instance/class/global level. The system was developed via iterative prototyping to address a number of design challenges that model users face in interpreting the behavior of deep learning models. Via a rigorous user study, we validate how CONCEPTEXPLAINER supports these challenges. Likewise, we conduct a series of usage scenarios to demonstrate how the system supports the interactive analysis of model behavior across a variety of tasks and explanation granularities, such as identifying concepts that are important to classification, identifying bias in training data, and understanding how concepts can be shared across diverse and seemingly dissimilar classes.

We present Roslingifier, a data-driven storytelling method for animated scatterplots. Like its namesake, Hans Rosling (1948–2017), a professor of public health and a spellbinding public speaker, Roslingifier turns a sequence of entities changing over time—such as countries and continents with their demographic data—into an engaging narrative elling the story of the data. This data-driven storytelling method with an in-person presenter is a new genre of storytelling technique and has never been studied before. In this article, we aim to define a design space for this new genre—data presentation—and provide a semi-automated authoring tool for helping presenters create quality presentations. From an in-depth analysis of video clips of presentations using interactive visualizations, we derive three specific techniques to achieve this: natural language narratives, visual effects that highlight events, and temporal branching that changes playback time of the animation. Our implementation of the Roslingifier method is capable of identifying and clustering significant movements, automatically generating visual highlighting and a narrative for playback, and enabling the user to customize. From two user studies, we show that Roslingifier allows users to effectively create engaging data stories and the system features help both presenters and viewers find diverse insights.

One of the ultimate goals of studies on visualization literacy is to improve users’ visualization literacy through education and training. Even though users’ cognitive characteristics may significantly affect learning and responding processes in general, studies have addressed the relationships between users’ cognitive characteristics and visualization literacy. As a first step toward discovering the relationships, we conducted an empirical study to investigate the correlation between cognitive characteristics and visualization literacy. Our first study focuses on testing the correlation between visualization and three cognitive characteristics: numeracy, need for cognition, and visualizer-verbalizer style. In this study, we measured 178 participants’ visualization literacy and the level of the three cognitive characteristics using the Visualization Literacy Assessment Test (VLAT), the Decision Research Numeracy Test (DRNT), the Need for Cognition Scale (NCS), and the Verbalizer-Visualizer Questionnaire (VVQ) through a crowdsourcing experiment. Our test results confirmed that a correlation exists between visualization literacy and both numeracy and need for cognition. Based on our test results, we discuss the implications for education to enhance visualization literacy and future studies to investigate on related user characteristics.

Development of islet autoimmunity precedes the onset of type 1 diabetes in children, however, the presence of autoantibodies does not necessarily lead to manifest disease and the onset of clinical symptoms is hard to predict. Here we show, by longitudinal sampling of islet autoantibodies (IAb) to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase and islet antigen-2 that disease progression follows distinct trajectories. Of the combined Type 1 Data Intelligence cohort of 24662 participants, 2172 individuals fulfill the criteria of two or more follow-up visits and IAb positivity at least once, with 652 progressing to type 1 diabetes during the 15 years course of the study. Our Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Models, that are developed to discover and visualize latent states based on the collected data and clinical characteristics of the patients, show that the health state of participants progresses from 11 distinct latent states as per three trajectories (TR1, TR2 and TR3), with associated 5-year cumulative diabetes-free survival of 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35% to 47%), 62% (95% CI, 57% to 67%), and 88% (95% CI, 85% to 91%), respectively (p < 0.0001). Age, sex, and HLA-DR status further refine the progression rates within trajectories, enabling clinically useful prediction of disease onset.